By Matthew Hassan Kukah

POOR strategic calculations, ill-timed policy reversals have conspired to make the Federal Government's amnesty programme a sitting duck. But, as good old Reagan would say, Some times, it is better to be a sitting duck than a dead duck. A somber constellation of factors now hovers over the horizons, all of them with a potential for heating up the system and inflicting collateral damage on the process. For example, the planned re-location of the Warri Petroleum University to Kaduna, the President's decision to open up a potential war with the Lagos State Government over the issue of the LGAs, the Petroleum Bill, the poor consultations with the Niger Delta governors, not to mention other externalities like the irresponsible crises within some Muslim sects etc. Sadly, the idea of Amnesty runs the risk of being choked by these thorns unless the Federal Government acts quickly (and Mr. President is off to Brazil!).

As a strategy for ending any conflict, amnesty is always fraught with dangers. However, it would seem that the Federal Government did not really avail itself of strategic expert thinking before embarking on this process. It would have known that the end of every conflict is often the end of a lucrative career for some and the beginning of a harsh life for others. Therefore, putting together Amnesty processes that will really last demands a multi track and multi disciplinary approach that carefully studies the situation. It demands a lot of background, behind-the-scene work by various expert interlocutors who know the terrain, preferably those with some perceived degree of integrity and neutrality and not immediate beneficiaries.

In a politically plural environment, there will always be worries as to what the political benefits of the success of an amnesty might be to all the citizens, who will benefit and who might loose. Matters are compounded if the low intensity war has been prolonged and is also an internal one involving kith and kin as it is this case. The adoption of Amnesty as one strategy for resolving the Niger Delta conflict is of course a welcome move, given that we have run out of ideas and options. However, I fear that the Federal Government has so rushed this process without a clearly defined work plan and strategy.

The process has been presented as if it is merely an engagement between the Federal Government and the Ijaw people. You would think from what one reads in the papers that the Ijaws constitute almost the entire army of the so called militants (I don't like the word, but it has officially been adopted by all). Very little if any thing has been said about other ethnic groups within the Niger Delta, who their leaders are and what they are saying. Very little if anything at all has been done to examine and understand the range of diverse ethnic and cultural configurations of the area. To continue to speak of the Niger Delta as if it is one homogenous community is to miss the point. This is an area of nearly 30 million people, 9 States, 185 LGAs, nearly 14,000 communal settlements, 94 per cent of which have populations of less than 5,000 persons and a land mass of 75,000 square kilometres.

The complexity of this environment is further shown by the fact that many ethnic groups cut across states and LGAs. A proper appreciation of these facts would lead to three conclusions. First, it should humble the Federal Government and make it weight the interlocutors and their claims of representation. Secondly, it should make the Federal Government appreciate the need to avoid policies that could wake up primordial inter-communal demons that may have only been on a strategic siesta. But most importantly, it would also lead us to have at least a near enough idea of how many militants we are talking of, their ethno-communal spread etc. In the absence of these statistics, the federal government and its agents, adorned with some Abacha goggles, will at best be chasing a black cat in a dark room wearing.

The decision to throw money at the problem clearly shows that the Federal Government may not have learnt serious lessons from its military predecessors which, rather than have the humility of seeking to understand the issues, merely throws money at the problems in the face of conflict. I doubt that the Federal government expects any one to believe the huge joke about the exact amount of money that it is offering. What this means is that another cash cow has just appeared on the scene to be milked by the big boys posing as mediators. The assumption that what is required to resolve this issue is money is wrong headed. Creating a sense of dignity and respect, more than anything else is what is at stake.

The fact that too many people have turned this tragedy into a lucrative business means that the Federal government needs not put its hope in money. Poor diagnosis must automatically lead to poor treatment and perhaps, death. This problem has not been properly diagnosed in my view. Government has displayed its amnesia by behaving as if it did not set up a Committee made up of prominent and well informed sons and daughters of the Niger Delta to look at the crises and to proffer solutions. Sadly, no reference has been made to that report. In my view, the Federal Government should have leveraged on that Report for at least some nominal endorsement. It is a pity that the Federal Government seems to be traveling into the Niger Delta without maps.

Finally, this process needs Patience. This process has been wrapped in the foil of secrecy and its scope is too limited. What the Federal Government needs urgently is to unpack a comprehensive development with short, medium and long term targets. Merely spreading money will only create a larger army. While money may offer some anesthesia, only genuine development will offer healing.

ThinkRait:


The process has been presented as if it is merely an engagement between the Federal Government and the Ijaw people. You would think from what one reads in the papers that the Ijaws constitute almost the entire army of the so called militants (I don't like the word, but it has officially been adopted by all). Very little if any thing has been said about other ethnic groups within the Niger Delta, who their leaders are and what they are saying. Very little if anything at all has been done to examine and understand the range of diverse ethnic and cultural configurations of the area. To continue to speak of the Niger Delta as if it is one homogenous community is to miss the point. This is an area of nearly 30 million people, 9 States, 185 LGAs, nearly 14,000 communal settlements, 94 per cent of which have populations of less than 5,000 persons and a land mass of 75,000 square kilometres.





The fact that too many people have turned this tragedy into a lucrative business means that the Federal government needs not put its hope in money. Poor diagnosis must automatically lead to poor treatment and perhaps, death. This problem has not been properly diagnosed in my view. Government has displayed its amnesia by behaving as if it did not set up a Committee made up of prominent and well informed sons and daughters of the Niger Delta to look at the crises and to proffer solutions. Sadly, no reference has been made to that report. In my view, the Federal Government should have leveraged on that Report for at least some nominal endorsement. It is a pity that the Federal Government seems to be traveling into the Niger Delta without maps.

Finally, this process needs Patience. This process has been wrapped in the foil of secrecy and its scope is too limited. What the Federal Government needs urgently is to unpack a comprehensive development with short, medium and long term targets. Merely spreading money will only create a larger army. While money may offer some anesthesia, only genuine development will offer healing.

Thought provoking, I'd say.

Honourary Presidential Adviser on Niger Delta and Chief negotiator on the Amnesty programme Mr. Timi Alaibe has said that the Federal Government would gazette all information obtained from repentant militants who embrace the amnesty option at the close of the amnesty period in October for future reference.
Alaibe disclosed that part of the documentation process would require the militants to supply information on the location of their camps, the kind of infrastructures in such camps; whether there are boats, hostels or there are arms and ammunitions, analysis of the infrastructures and at the end of it they would sign and commit to the amnesty document.


When they know the position of the camps, JTF will take over and our looting and bunkering elite will go back to their trade. Are we moving forward as a nation?