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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas (10181 Views)
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Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by Ovamboland(m): 6:37pm On Feb 12, 2015 |
kokosheen: Yes it is produced by Green Fuel in Sango-Otta Ogun state, mentioned that several times in earlier post 1 Like |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by azimibraun: 6:37pm On Feb 12, 2015 |
I tot it was reasonable post.. Yeye dey smell. 1 Like |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by kokosheen(m): 6:45pm On Feb 12, 2015 |
Ovamboland: thats interesting.. skipped to the last post. will re-read. |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by kokosheen(m): 6:54pm On Feb 12, 2015 |
Ovamboland: Just read this. Good points you have here but unfortunately the people who need to work on a solution like this would never support it (be APC or PDP) because it limits what they can steal. Thanks for the education about the CNG production in Sango Ota. I'm interested in knowing how they get their feed gas? any idea? 1 Like |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by netotse(m): 6:55pm On Feb 12, 2015 |
kokosheen: Senior friend don't be angry with me. kokosheen: Not just green fuels, Luxxor gas also in Sango and Oando at Ilasamaja. If you wan't numbers I could give you (Just a novice helping a senior friend out...I'm nice like that). 1 Like |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by Nobody: 7:14pm On Feb 12, 2015 |
What do you expect from a professor who doesn't have a doctarate degree? Like buhari, like osinbajo 1 Like |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by netotse(m): 7:15pm On Feb 12, 2015 |
Ovamboland: Bros, from the way you post I can tell you know what you're saying to a large extent, just that your perspective is skewed. You feel the need to present this current govt as not doing enough. Let's forget about political parties for a bit and just talk, one guy to another As at 2013, the price per mmscf of Natural gas was USD 1.5 for the power sector(it's USD3.3 from Jan 1 this year), for CNG do you know the cost? USD7.5 base price(this doesn't include trucking and decompression costs). Using this years gas costs, the fuels component of the tariffs if you use CNG is more than double, who bears the costs? Tariffs are already low enough already, so it isn't financially feasible to use CNG unless you're ready for a MAJOR increase in tariffs. I wonder what the unit price for the Lagos state plants are, I can bet you, it would be more that NGN 20 per Kwh (I'm being conservative here). The tariff has always been too low in Nigeria, I have read world bank reports as far back as the 80's saying that the Nigerian govt's control of tariffs was a major factor killing the NESI. You might want to say if there is power people will pay right? where will the money to buy said CNG and put said plants come from? No lender will give you money for a project without ensuring they will make profit. Classic case of the Chicken and the egg. P.S. All the things I highlighted in bold all point to the fact that you assume the gas is there for the taking...not true. Building pipelines is one thing, having gas to transport is another thing entirely, they are interrelated yes but not one and the same. 4 Likes |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by netotse(m): 7:37pm On Feb 12, 2015 |
Let's discuss gas. The price of gas-to- power was earlier increased from $0.5 cents per mcf to $1 in 2010. It was further increased to $1.50 by 2011 and $3.2 ($2.5 with 0.8 cents transportaton charge) from Jan 1 2015. as far back as 2011, the industrial sector was paying close to 3 dollars for gas(more than double the gas to power prices for PHCN plants), as an IOC producing gas, who would you rather sell to? the industries using gas or govt power plants(who would still owe you money, despite the dirt cheap prices). We're not even considering the option of gas flaring o. It has always been cheaper for the oil companies to flare gas than develop the infrastructure to clean, compress and transport it for use locally because of the tariffs,Then we now have LNG (which BTW is in the region of $10 per mmscf). So before govt woke up there was very little incentive for the oil companies to supply gas to the local sector, what we're seeing is a govt that is trying to get these companies to invest in the sector with their own money. This necessitated the increasing of gas prices which will always mean an increasing in electricity tariffs since fuels are a passthrough in power generation. The unions and civil society have fought govt at every step of the way. Now, at $3.30 per mmscf, it's still some 25% cheaper for power plants to buy gas than it is for industries (such as your friend in Sango) and so some companies will still avoid giving the gencos gas, do you know what govt did? they put in place something called the domestic supply obligation, making it compulsory for all holders of oil licenses to supply a certain amount of gas to the power sector before they can supply other sectors. The gas story is really complicated but I hope you can see the picture I'm trying to paint for you? Politicians need to stay away from these areas and let the pros do the talking. I would recommend you read the power sector roadmap and it's revisions if you want a full picture there's a lot more to things than we see. 5 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by pheliciti: 8:10pm On Feb 12, 2015 |
OP, You could have made your points without attacking the person or his religious predilection. Unnecessary abuse diverts from a good discussion. I'm not an energy expert but i consume energy and therefore follow the trends in the sector, trends which points to fallacies in your post. 1. First point of correction is that Prof gave the modular plant option as a short term fix. That is never meant to be the long term solution to energy problem. 2. He always states clearly that the gas infrastructure is the biggest factor and that would take time to fix but the modular option is one of the alternatives whilst work goes on on the gas infrastructure 3. The modular system, clearly is for captive areas i.e. industrial parks to sustain SMEs mainly. You should listen to him again without any prejudice. 4. About modularity, it is working in Lagos and i have also seen it work in countries like Lebanon, with acute energy shortages like ours. Note again that these are short term palliatives 5. On the Prof himself, from a personal assessment over time, i formed the view that he is one of the most brilliant Nigerians around. At a certain level of experience in professional life, functional skills give way to powers of analysis and visioning. Hence, an engineer will contribute meaningfully to discussions on medicine on the peripheral and likewise a lawyer can discuss energy. Point out the areas of disagreement and do not ask anybody to keep quiet- that is intelluctally churlish. Don't forget that the first IPP in Nigeria was done when a lawyer, late Bola Ige (SAN) was Minister of Power, albeit the project was carried out by Lagos State governed then by an accountant. Please rest assured that the energy problems we have are not borne out of lack of engineers- the Power Reform Roadmap will show you there is a plan. However, the main problem is the lack of execution skill or will which can be bridged when we have serious people in govt. A pointer, or poser to you is that, if we are currently doing well on Power, how come we are still tottering on the verge of 4,500 MW when as of August 2010, the date of the Power Reform Roadmap we were generating about the same 4,500 MW? Please read the document and confirm for yourself. Why then inspite of the clear Roadmap, have we not been able to add extra MWs for 5 years and we are stuck where the current President met generation or even less? 2 Likes |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by bodejohn(m): 12:15am On Feb 13, 2015 |
Guys, I think a special thread like this should be encouraged for professionals to discuss without irrational interjections by political apologists. I mentioned on a thread about a year ago that power generation just like other major infrastructure requires careful planning, time and well thought execution. From my experience as an electrical engineer, the cost of constant electricity is not cheap, no company in Nigeria can break even providing stable power with the current tariffs but we cannot raise the cost without providing the commodity, we have to strike a balance, if Nigerians want power, they should be ready to pay for it. Now to the prof's idea, there is a term in engineering called BVOA, best value option analysis. For every engineering challenge, there will be a couple of options, during conceptual and feasibility studies, numbers are assigned to each element in the all the options after which the option with the best value will be designed and installed. There is technically no bad idea in engineering, it might just have a negative value in the terms of cost and delivery time. The best option for Ibadan might be the worst solution for Abuja or Sokoto. Scaled down power plants might make some sense if you consider delivery time and less complexity in installation but might be crazy in terms of cost. For example, I have a solar generation plant that serves only my house, but it costs about the same amount to build it verus buying a transformer with accessories and installing for a community of about 300 houses. It might not be completely stupid not to wait for the community to take a year to contribute the needed funds if I want to enjoy uninterrupted power in few weeks. We need our government to come up with blue prints of how exactly their goals will be met so we can constructively critic it like it has been done by the professionals above rather than a blanket promise of 10,000MW at the beginning of each year. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by onagoodday1: 12:32am On Feb 13, 2015 |
J12:No wonder..now i know why they are dodging debtes 1 Like |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by onagoodday1: 12:36am On Feb 13, 2015 |
pheliciti:..and I ask again....is osinbanjo the president? 1 Like |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by Nobody: 1:19am On Feb 13, 2015 |
Ovamboland: I don't know about the technical details and all that but let's talk numbers a little 2013 Bauchi state initiated plans to build a 140MW powerplant for $201m to be completed in 9months . Dollar was still at 165 or less. http://www.channelstv.com/home/2013/10/12/bauchi-to-build-140-mw-plant-for-power-supply/?utm_source=&utm_medium=twitter $201m/140 = $1.436m = N237m per mw Now lagos' ipp is N3.2b/10mw which equates to 320m per mw Notice I have 9months in bold and it's not executed by the FG, the only way Lagos ipp would be better is if it's running cost is cheaper. 3 Likes |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by temi4fash(m): 7:45am On Feb 13, 2015 |
netotse: Boss.. Can you help we upcoming engineers and reduce the abbreviations. Many thanks. .. hope you are good? |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by netotse(m): 9:43am On Feb 13, 2015 |
temi4fash: Hey how's things?...no vex, na over excitement cause am, been a while since I've seen people display that much knowledge of the power sector online. mmscf (called em em scuff) is million standard cubic feet per day, the scf is the common measure of gas in use in naija. IOC is international oil company. Any other thing you'd like me to expatiate? 1 Like |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by netotse(m): 9:58am On Feb 13, 2015 |
pheliciti: Boss...gas is a major problem, the prof does not mention how he plans to fix this, every single thing he says points to only one thing, tariffs will go up in a major way, this still brings us back to the chicken and the egg, which comes first? As per the bolded, you need to read the revisions to the roadmap to understand the obstacles, A major place where they missed targets was with the gas projects, those have been a headache (In 2013 I heard a gas developers say point blank that he wasn't interested in giving gov't projects gas as long as the price wasn't close to $4 per mmscf). Transmission has been another headache, they are looking for money to invest in the sector do you have any idea how many vandalism incidents we've had on gas pipelines this year alone? where you aware when the ELPS was blown up with dynamite in 20 different places (this was in 2013)? A lot still needs to be done, I agree whole heartedly with that but mennnn I give it the the taskforce guys, they have put in work. I haven't heard PYO talk, but I don't doubt his intelligence (the dude is a SAN for crying out loud), that said, as far as power is concerned, his solutions show at best a half understanding of the issues at play. ELPS is the Escravos Lagos Pipeline, it brings gas from Warri to Lagos and is responsible for gas supply to most of the power plants(and industries) in the west up to the west african gas pipeline. 1 Like |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by netotse(m): 10:18am On Feb 13, 2015 |
bodejohn: Spot on, the prof's idea is not without merit to be honest, taking generation closer to the load centres but like you ask is it the best value option? I dont think gov't should spend money on that, if private companies can sort out the economics of such ideas, let them do it. Govt should spend it's money on things what would have greater impact. You're right about tariffs not being able to support investment, that's why govt raised industrial tariffs in Jan but delayed the residential for 6 months. It would have taken something in the region of 10 years at the least to break even at previous tariff levels. Bros this your solar setup, is it in naija? 300 houses ke? na mansion you dey power? what's the capacity? 2 Likes |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by kaboninc(m): 11:56am On Feb 13, 2015 |
netotse: If you were to be appointed as a Minster of Power, or Minister of Energy (I know we do not have that portfolio now) what would you do differently? Do you agree with the current step being taken by the current holders of that portfolio to overcome these challenges (some of which you appear to have an excellent understanding and knowledge of)? |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by temi4fash(m): 2:19pm On Feb 13, 2015 |
kaboninc: These is a very good question... Would love if my amiable senior colleagues would argue intellectually on these power thingy. So that we the young and aspiring Engineers can learn a thing or two because from the little written here I have been able to pick a thing or 2. Let forget the politics behind the discus and just argue or brainstorm in a very civil manner. . Thanks |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by temi4fash(m): 2:21pm On Feb 13, 2015 |
netotse: My oga u have tried... Thanks. I see u have corrections in your subsequent post.. Thanks for that. hope you doing great? Would send you a mail soon.. Thanks agqin |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by netotse(m): 7:25pm On Feb 13, 2015 |
kaboninc:Omo, that's a tough one o...I will come out straight and say I don't yet have the depth of knowledge and/or exposure to make such calls wrt doing things differently. One thing though, I would be more strict with the discos on metering and estimated billing, this affects perception a great deal, let the people see there's a difference in ownership of the companies by how you interact with them. That said, this is not the HMPowers scope, it's more of the NERC guy (Sam Amadi) I think the govt did a good job putting him there. Below is a link to a story by thisday in october where NERC went through some of the discos books and didn't approve of some of the costs they incurred, made me feel we have a regulator that isn't there to just rubber stamp decisions. I'd still like to see better customer care though http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/nerc-orders-11-discos-to-remit-n19bn-to-firs-nelmco/191334/ The minister of power isn't necessarily the most knowledgeable or most important person in the scheme of things, there's the Presidential Action Comittee on Power and the Presidential Task Force, these guys do a lot of the tinkering with policy that has to be done. I agree with the way govt has gone about things, they've tried to be as transparent as possible in the way they went about this reform (Nnaji sacrificed himself so as not to jeopardize this, woulda preferred him as HMPower). |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by citizenY(m): 8:10pm On Feb 13, 2015 |
J12: And this is how far they have taken us to |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by kaboninc(m): 8:26pm On Feb 13, 2015 |
netotse: I had ask that question going from your opinion about the power industry. With the focus on gas (we have abundance of it) to clean (or green) fuels and other sustainable (and reusable) sources of energy, I see opportunities in the face of chaos, complaints and anger! Don't mind me, just being an opportunist! Two days ago, I was discussing with someone about the endless opportunities in Nigeria with focus on our power generation. For instance, we've been on this 4.5 GW - 10 GW of electricity production while South Africa is producing close to 160GW if not more, but still, Nigeria is a virgin land and investors are coming in. Well that's by the way for now. Now on the HM Power, I've been following the policy trends in the industry and other industries too which have one impact or the other on the power industry especially the Finance industry. President Jonathan, through Nnaji and the various Presidential Committees had been resolute and determined to ensure that privatisation of PHCN scale through. Nnaji to the best of my knowledge, saw an opportunity in the sector when his own company was bidding for one of the plants been offered for sale. That eventually led to his exit (conflict of interest). To me, that was the beginning of the 'downward' trend as the vibe, vigour had been diminished. However, I still see some form of determination. Its evident that the activities of vandals tinkering with transmission lines, power installations, gas pipelines have greatly affected power generation, transmission and distribution. I want to ask you this (I want to believe its true and feasible too). Since we have the gas in the Niger Delta, can there be a solution that is cost effective and highly efficient to transport the gas to other parts of the country especially the far West, East and North in LARGE QUANTITIES? My solutions is like using a large vessel to bring in oil and use the pipeline to transport the oil rather than transporting the oil from source. I agree with your position on the discos and metering. So many households do not have meters and I have a strong feeling that these discos are really impeding distribution of these meters. The complaint today is that there are not enough meters to go round. There's no fund too to purchase these meters. Now the CBN has come to guarantee funds and it appears government is pushing for the meters to be produced locally. I also still think the regulator should not just look at their books but do an on-site monitoring of these discos. I believe it will be effective and the perception will change to a positive one. I see government is focusing on other forms of power generation - coal, solar, hydro, etc. That to me is also a step in the right direction. There's something about policy direction. For a long time, we've not had a consistent, committed, focused and determined drive on policy implementation especially on a year-to-year basis and in critical segments of the economy. This government I must commend it is actually taking that bold step. Its my hope that should there be a change in Aso rock, this policy will be sustained and only fine-tuned if need be. I've learnt a whole lot here especially on the 'modular' model of power generation. |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by netotse(m): 9:07pm On Feb 13, 2015 |
kaboninc: First things first, why are you dashing RSA free capacity na? they have somewhere between 45 and 50GW (let us even dash them 60 sef), nowhere near 160GW. Transportation is always a major cost in any endeavour, whether farming or trading, etc. Transporting fuels by anything other than a gas pipeline will serve to increase your unit costs case in point, link says supplying our refineries crude by ship would increase refinery costs by $7 per barrel. There isn't yet an economically viable alternative to pipelines (that I'm aware of ). You mention having the gas in abundance, granted we do, but we still need to make producing it viable. Good news though... http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL5N0VN0MI20150213 worldbank is providing financing for gas projects in Africa and a nice chunk of it is coming to naija, all is not yet uhuru but we're making progress. I agree with you things haven't been quite the same since Nnaji left, I liked the energy/urgency back then. He left so the naysayers wouldn't have anything to say about the reforms, not because anyone could prove any conflict of interest, respect!!! (imagine if he had stubbornly stayed on? we wouldn't have heard the end of it, how govt was condoning corruption and all). I can see you have a passion for the energy side of things, have you read the roadmaps and revisions? digest and understand them then you can come online and be forming local champion like me @temi4fash no wahala...anytime boss. |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by temi4fash(m): 11:52pm On Feb 13, 2015 |
Seems to me from the on going discuss there are many untapped opportunities in the power sector. .. @kaboninc how would they use large vessels when there are no large water ways to the north and some other part of the north. @netotse Can u help with a link on the revised power sector reforms and how far gone are we with it. Are making progress not just from the papers but from the perspective of the average nigerian. |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by netotse(m): 4:21pm On Feb 14, 2015 |
temi4fash: http://www.nigeriapowerreform.org/index.php?option=com_phocadownload&view=category&id=3&Itemid=357 |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by temi4fash(m): 12:33am On Feb 20, 2015 |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by kaboninc(m): 8:43am On Feb 24, 2015 |
netotse: No mind me jare. Thanks. Transportation is always a major cost in any endeavour, whether farming or trading, etc. Transporting fuels by anything other than a gas pipeline will serve to increase your unit costs case in point, link says supplying our refineries crude by ship would increase refinery costs by $7 per barrel. There isn't yet an economically viable alternative to pipelines (that I'm aware of ). Yeah I know that transportation is always a major cost to factor in any endeavour. My idea is: can we have a large reservoir built to store gas in strategic locations? The gas reservoir will be fed through network of pipelines from the production locations. The power plants can then be fed via the gas reservoir. That way, the power plants won't be shut down due to low gas supply as the reservoir will act as a temporary storage facility in case there is a leak or sabotage? This may not stop vandalism and sabotage but it sure can reduce the number of break points and ensure availability of gas for a specific duration. If this idea can be implemented, and electricity can be GUARANTEED, I believe the transportation cost can be worked on even though it will be passed unto the final consumer. I have not done any comparative analysis: transporting gas through pipelines and associated cost to vandalism on one hand and cost of transporting gas to reservoirs, cost of building the reservoir, and another cost of transporting the gas to power plants. I agree with you things haven't been quite the same since Nnaji left, I liked the energy/urgency back then. He left so the naysayers wouldn't have anything to say about the reforms, not because anyone could prove any conflict of interest, respect!!! (imagine if he had stubbornly stayed on? we wouldn't have heard the end of it, how govt was condoning corruption and all). The guy is cooling off with his Geometric power supply around Aba- Ariaria Axis. I can see you have a passion for the energy side of things, have you read the roadmaps and revisions? digest and understand them then you can come online and be forming local champion like me I have passion for anything that provides opportunity. Problem is ACTING! I will take my time to study the roadmaps, revisions, policies, etc etc and thanks for the link on NERC refusing to grant 'approval' to Discos for their outrageous expenses. Them wan transfer the cost to us. Imagine Kaduna Disco, expending N17.8 million... in hosting members of the Senate Committee on Power during an oversight visit to them. . And the yeye Senators will go ahead to collect ESTACODES Stealing from two sources! I've followed you from the Welcome to My Office Thread. |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by Chiaka(f): 9:13am On Feb 24, 2015 |
ogb5: With no clue on how to bring about change. I don talk am tire say the change when APC dey shout na 'change' as per money when go enter their pocket. Leave matter!!!! |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by ogb5(m): 10:05am On Feb 24, 2015 |
It is good that many folks believe that the energy option that the APC is pushing for is not optimal. However some people have brought up the option of using compressed natural gas to power the modular power plants. There are several pitfalls in this approach. 1. We have a gas framework agreed over the yrs. Compressed natural gas is not the preferred option in our gas to power plans. That is why you will see that as a country we have LNG plants and LPG plants but we have not invested in compressed natural gas plants. Compressed natural gas being used for electricity is an expensive option compared to piping of natural gas to power plants. 2. We do not have the infrastructure to produce and distribute compressed natural gas at a scale required for it to be a viable energy alternative for a country of 170 million people. Before APC started brandishing modular power plants powered by truck delivered gas, did they bother to check the feasibility of their plans? Where will the gas come from to power a modular plant in sokoto or in zamfara ? Are you going to truck gas fro warri daily to sokoto? 3. No one who wants to develop reinvents the wheel. Gas powered plant has been built in many countries that have gas reserves like nigeria. Non of those countries based their electricity generation on compressed National gas. Why does APC want to use Nigerians on a experiment. Also as a country we decided long ago to be taking gas to power plants through pipelines because it is cheaper. Why change from the cheaper option to expensive option of using trucks to deliver gas. |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by netotse(m): 7:01pm On Feb 24, 2015 |
kaboninc:In a bit of a rush... Two things, gas storage is not beans...especially storage when you dont have a surplus. There's something similar to your idea in place already though, they're called line packs, they allow us breathe easier during short term vandalism episodes. But I looked into gas storage in 2013 (I think) and it took me less than half a day to realize it wasn't a feasible option. Don't take my word for it though, look it up . Bros, Nnaji isn't cooling off anywhere, Geometric has problems with Interstate(disco owner for that region), I remember reading something along the lines of Interstate buying them over so the matter doesn't drag. temi4fash:seen it, will get back to you...have a full plate |
Re: Ignorant APC Vice Prof. Osinbajo Does Not Know Gas by laudate: 7:02pm On Jun 15, 2015 |
Why do you think so?? The few IPP plants in Lagos, especially the ones on the island are supplied with CNG gas using skids/cascades carried by CNG trucks. There are about 5 companies that currently produce and distribute natural gas using this method. |
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