LATEST PAFFCOMM POLL CONDUCTED FROM OCT 31 TO NOV 3, 2013

A new Paffcommn Telephone Survey from October 31st to Nov 3, 2013 shows that 24% of Likely Voters would vote for the APC or LP for Anambra governorship race if the election were held today, while 22% would choose the APGA and 13% for PDP. Undecided voters 17%.

APC and LP lead over APGA by 2% and over PDP by 17%. Ifeanyi Uba who presently is having the best campaign team among the top political parties has also usurped some of the youths followers of Ngige and Tony Nwoye. The Oil magnet and youthful Ifeanyi Uba is also enjoying a surge of support from the Elders of Anambra Central and South and a little fraction of elders in the Anambra North Senatorial zone.

Men............................APC 26......APGA 22......PDP 14.......LP 25
Women.......................APC 25......APGA 24......PDP 11.......LP 27
Traders.......................APC 28......APGA 20......PDP 16.......LP 22
18-29 years.................APC 20......APGA 19......PDP 14.......LP 25
30-48 years.................APC 21......APGA 22......PDP 12.......LP 24
50-64 years.................APC 25......APGA 26......PDP 13.......LP 25
68 and olders...............APC 27......APGA 25......PDP 9........LP 24

A telephone survey of 1,911 Likely Voters was conducted by Paffcomm from October 31st to Nov 3, 2013. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 5% with a 91% level of confidence.

ANALYSIS

With days to election, many things are changing and changing very fast in the Anambra state opinion polls. PDP who weeks ago surged in the poll due to Court of Appeal declaration that Tony Nwoye won the PDP gubernatorial candidate in Anambra State has once again witnessed a big slide in the opinion poll as a result of another court ruling that barred him from all political campaigns pending the outcome of a case filed by Ukachukwu in the court, which the hearing will commence Nov 4. 2013. The order from the court is a big setback to the PDP party who has been trying to catch up with other political parties on the campaign trail. You may recall that PDP has been off and on in the court due to the disagreement concerning whom to select as the party flag bearer in the Anambra state gubernatorial election.

Willie Obiano of APGA is facing a tremendous mountain of problems from the poor debate outing to cheating in the debate. Others include: Agulu town chiefs the home of Peter Obi revelation of Ojukwu plans and his agreement with Peter Obi which Obi did not keep, which led to the support of Ifeanyi Uba instead of their son's candidate, Willie Obiano by Agulu town people. Another is the division and bickering in the Anambra North Central Zone over whom the zone will support due to the many candidates from the zone. Another trouble for the party is the division between the traditional rulers in Anambra State over whom the traditional rulers will support. Anambra south and central senatorial zone traditional rulers are against the zoning system while the traditional rulers in the Anambra north senatorial zone are in favor of the zoning system. Again, is the Onitsha main market debacle where Willie received an unpalatable reception from some traders who were against the closure of the market for APGA campaign which resulted in throwing of pure water sachet on the Obiano campaign team by some of the traders.

The most recent and very destructive to APGA is the loss of life in Uke crusade which Obi and Willie Obiano and APGA chairman Victor Ume attended with many others in their entourage. Anambrarians blame Obi squally for the loss of life at the praying ground. They argued that Obi should not have attended the crusade on APGA campaign uniform or make open donations and promises to the church. They said. Had Obi made the donations and promises secretly to the church that the crises would have been avoided, claiming that crusade is not for fund-raising or political campaign rather a place of worship. All this put together is definitely harming the party and Willie Obiano in the opinion poll and may result to APGA losing the election if positive step is not taken to remedy the situation.

More so, Willie should try to meet an open press instead of selected press as many people, including the press see Obiano as being propped and restricted by Obi from meeting an open press. Nobody wants to see a would-be governor avoid the press like Sarah Pallin, whom the Republican party hid from the press for so long that when she finally met the press, she made many mistakes. Willie Obiano interview in the twitter is a welcomed development and should also conduct the same interview in Facebook as Nigerians use Facebook more than twitter. I also advise the other party candidates to emulate Willie's twitter interview. Willie Obiano needs a serious image maker to rebuild his image after the disgraceful performance in the last debate, including the loss of life at Uke crusade. Again, Willie Obiano should campaign more on job creation instead of his present campaign talking point, which is based on continuation of Obi good work in the Anambra State.

Ngige last week rumors of slapping a Rev Priest affected his poll. Thought, the priest in question has cleared Ngige of such act, but the effect on Ngige poll is still to subside. Ngige campaign team late arrival to debunk the allegations took a toll on Ngige's support. In political campaigns even a flat lie or false allegation against a candidate or party can have a damaging effect on a candidate or party if the party did not immediately issue a report denying the allegation. It happened to Obama when it was alleged that Obama was a Muslim and not born in United State. The allegation took a toll Oboma opinion poll for months before it was debunked by fact checking. Even though the allegation was debunked the Republicans party still uses it as a campaign tool against Obama today.

The APC team did a good job on the Ngige image repair. He was hurt severely by his support for the deportation of Igbo indigene from Lagos to Onitsha and joining APC, which was deemed as Hausa party a move that earned him, the phrase "Yoruba godson" or the stooge of the Yoruba and Hausa. Astonishingly, he was able to turn the God-fatherism slogan used against him by APGA on Willie Obiano as the godson of Obi. He also changed the talking point that APGA is an Igbo party while APC is Yoruba and Hausa party a tribal insinuation used by APGA. Presently, the talking point is focused on candidate's personality and experiences and what the party can do for the people. However, the greatest enemy of Ngige is arrogance and over-confidence. In as much as the opinion poll is still in his favor, he should be reminded that opinion polls are not steady. More so, he should try as much as possible not to allow the Uke crusade death blame fall on him.

The most surprising is the surge in supports for Ifeanyi Uba of LP. Ifeanyi Uba is presently on par with Ngige of APC party at the top table with 24 points apiece. APC dropped again by 1 point while Ifeanyi Uba, who was at 8% as at Paffcomm, first poll gained 16% point. His rise in the poll is not unconnected with his performance during recent debates and revelation of agreement between the late Ojukwu and Peter Obi by the Agulu chiefs, including his aggressive campaign and political manifesto which is more on job creation. More so, Ifeanyi Uba seems to have a good image maker who was able to rebuild his image in Anambra state after the Ngige kidnap episode, which almost tarnished his political career and image in the state. Presently, he is leading in the social media campaign followed by APC. Two many set backs have forced APGA from their first position in the social media campaign a few weeks ago to third position. APGA needs to be more serious about social media campaign or employ more hands to do the job. However, his handcap is fluency in english language though, it may not pose a big problem in this race.


Paffcomm
www.paffcomm.com

onnnwwwa

I hope Pro-APGA e-warriors will not discountenance this opinion poll and dismiss it with a wave of the hand!

In my own opinion,the opinion poll seem credible and did try to analyse each candidate's strenght and weaknesses!

If the truth be told Ifeanyi Uba was the revelation of the debates while Obiano suffered a setback which seem to have thrown his camp into panic. Ngige has been steady in his ratings and he seems to have his fan base well locked down despite the sword,daggers and bombs being thrown at him by opposition

Opinion polls are not absolute determinant of actual elections but none of the candidates should scoff at their pointers

Crap! You can do better than this.

pullyacap: I hope Pro-APGA e-warriors will not discountenance this opinion poll and dismiss it with a wave of the hand!

In my own opinion,the opinion poll seem credible and did try to analyse each candidate's strenght and weaknesses!

If the truth be told Ifeanyi Uba was the revelation of the debates while Obiano suffered a setback which seem to have thrown his camp into panic. Ngige has been steady in his ratings and he seems to have his fan base well locked down despite the sword,daggers and bombs being thrown at him by opposition

Opinion polls are not absolute determinant of actual elections but none of the candidates should scoff at their pointers

they will soon invade the thread

I opened the PAFFCOMM site, only to discover that it is very very partisan!
Also, the result of the poll is not on the site.

These are figures anybody could have picked up.

Also the real votes with the winning numbers are in the villages, how were they captured?

noblezone: I opened the PAFFCOMM site, only to discover that it is very very partisan!
Also, the result of the poll is not on the site.

These are figures anybody could have picked up.

Also the real votes with the winning numbers are in the villages, how were they captured?

A poll he pulled out of his crack.
A telephone survey with no indication if the respondents reside in or are registered voters in Anambra,breakdown of the survey viz local govt spread,etc.
Poll indeed.