With no known accomplishment in public
service, President Goodluck Jonathan rode to
the Presidency in 2011 on a wave of
undefined hope with the assistance of an
unsuspecting media, and a gullible electorate.
To his supporters, Jonathan was a bolt of
lightning that would unite Nigeria, restore
prosperity, and bring “a breath of fresh air”
to the polluted politics of Abuja, and Nigeria
in general. His detractors, on the other hand,
saw a recluse with a murky past and little
evidence to warrant the adulation heaped on
him. Who was right? As his first term drags on
painfully, it has become clear that Nigerians
who supported and voted for him had
invested their hope in a phantom. Under
Jonathan’s leadership, the economy has,
forget the chest-thumping rhetoric of the
finance minister, Mrs. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala,
been a mess and this country has never been
more divided. It has now turned out that
electing one based on little other than the
sentimental rhetoric of a deprived childhood
may not have been such a good idea after all.
To say that Jonathan was a phenomenon in
2011 will not be an exaggeration. He ran a
huge campaign and broke records in vote
totals. But it will be impossible for him to
match those levels of excitement in 2015.
Usually, in a presidential election, the odds of
getting re-elected have always favoured the
incumbent. But in a depressed economy like
ours, or when the public perceives the
incumbent as feckless in spending, dithering
or simply not up to the task, this conventional
wisdom will not matter. And that is the case
with President Jonathan. Several factors, when
taken together, make it almost impossible for
him to win a re-election in 2015. President
Jonathan cannot win. This President has
several key flaws which have already blighted
his Presidency. His most telling undoing, of
course, has been the fact that he has not
been much of a party leader with his party
now crumbling under his watch. To begin
with, the mist has cleared and millions of
Nigerians (except for sycophants) have seen
with their own eyes that “the breath of fresh
air’’ was just more of the same old political
rhetoric. In 2015, Jonathan’s campaign will
not have the historical significance it did in
2011.
Second, which is the reason for this piece is
how the demographics that saw him elected
President will work against him in 2015. The
President has alienated just too many
Nigerians, including large numbers from his
own party, the Peoples Democratic Party. In
2015, many will vote against him or simply
just stay home–that’s for want of a credible
and well-accepted candidate from the
opposition. President Jonathan is a self-
created myth. There is little substance behind
the façade other than the deceptive style of
politics that has long defined Nigerian
politicians.
In 2011, his campaign avoided specifics; his
speeches contained no substance. His greatest
asset was his “unknownness.” As a blank
slate, Nigerians imagined whatever they
wanted in the next president. They were
aided by a campaign which played up the
sentiments of his deprived childhood. It was a
deceptive farce cleverly scripted to mirror the
lives of ordinary Nigerians who immediately
connected with someone they thought was
one of their own. How wrong have they
been? He was thought to be an outsider who
would clean up Abuja. Any PDP presidential
candidate who gained the nomination in 2011
was likely ensured the presidency. Having said
that, Jonathan will lose the next election
because his greatest asset, his “unknownness”,
no longer exists. The imagination of Nigerians
can no longer be manipulated in the presence
of facts. Simply put, Jonathan will not be re-
elected because ordinary Nigerians can now
see him for who he is. What people are
getting now is nothing like what they were
promised or imagined. What was a blank slate
upon which to imagine a Jonathan presidency
now is a full-blown portrait filled with
disappointment and more of the same.
Gradually, it is appearing a great mistake was
made in 2011. That mistake is now apparent
to most Nigerians. Even his South-South home
base and party stalwarts in the PDP
establishment recognise his failings, although
neither is willing to publicly discuss them. It
is hoped that the PDP will have the courage to
look elsewhere in their next convention.
Although that is unthinkable, they can only
hope that this election does not destroy what
remains of the party. The cracks are already
visible. Based on the debacle presently
rocking his party, that fear is not unfounded.
The most compelling image of Jonathan is the
one showing him ducking all of the tough
issues that have come his way. For him, the
buck stopped with a plethora of committees
and with Okonjo-Iweala. But her Bretton
Wood prescriptions have worsened the
economy with unemployment figures reaching
a record high.
Why and how Jonathan will lose this next
election is less difficult to understand than
how he won the first time. Certainly, the
demographics will be less favourable this time
unless something dramatic happens during
the polls. In 2011, the President won in
almost all the zones of the federation. In
2015, he will not have such a luxury. Take the
South-West zone for example. The zone was a
battleground which contributed immensely to
his first term victory. In 2015, it will present
a test case for Jonathan. For one, the
influence of his party has waned in the zone.
In many of the South-West states, for
example, the PDP has become too fractious
and weakened. The emergence of the All
Progressives Congress, with Maj-Gen.
Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) and Bola Tinubu
hoping to consolidate on a renewed alliance
will make the South-West a no-win for the
President. If the alliance between the APC
(Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani) work, Jonathan’s
second term is best forgotten. If the
opposition presents a credible candidate,
perhaps, it will be the first time an incumbent
will be defeated. The South-West and the
North are key battleground zones. The crisis
rocking the fractious PDP fuelled by his
controversial chairman, Bamanga Tukur, may
yet turn out to be his Achilles’ heels.
The politics of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum
also offers a glimpse into how Jonathan will
not be re-elected. Governor Chibuike Amaechi
won 19 out of 35 votes in the NGF
chairmanship election, while Governor Jonah
Jang got 16 votes with the Yobe State
Governor abstaining. Many of the governors
who voted for Amaechi have sympathy for the
APC. Seven of the nine PDP governors that
supported Amaechi are now in the “New PDP”
with a chance of defecting to the APC
anytime: Sokoto, Kano, Jigawa, Adamawa,
Rivers, Kwara and Niger (also called the G7
governors). Kebbi and Gombe are still in the
Jonathan camp of the “Old PDP” but their next
move is almost predictable. Note that
Sokoto, Kano, Jigawa, Niger, Kebbi and Gombe
all voted for Buhari in 2011. The South-East
zone, which also has a valid claim to the
presidency, will intensify its quest in 2015. It
may likely pitch its tent with the party that
offers the best chance to actualise this dream.
Will Jonathan be a one-term president? It is
very likely.
Source: http://www.punchng.com/opinion/how-jonathan-will-lose-in-2015/

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Fresh Air continua till 2019

I support this analysis, but with corrupt and crooked Nigerian public officials, rigging is still the best pathway to election victories in Nigeria and GEJ and his cronies are part of the Nigerian rigging system so sadly and unfortunately for Nigerians, GEJ winning in 2015 is very very possible.