Plans by close aides of President
Goodluck Jonathan to win re-election
include exploiting division in the
ranks of the nation’s governors,
playing on the political ambitions of
some Northern power brokers and the
promotion of a clash of egos between
the leaders of All Progressives
Congress, APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu
and Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.)
The plans, believed to have been
prepared by close aides of the
President ahead of the 2015 election,
identified the House of
Representatives, which the strategists
claim to have become the
mouthpiece of the opposition, the
President’s ineffective utilisation of
his powers and the dominance of
ethnic jingoists around President
Jonathan as some of the major
weaknesses for the president’s
second term campaign.
The strategists also cited APC, if it
does not implode, the Nigerian
Governors’ Forum, the Northern
States Governors Forum, regional
alliances, especially in the North, as
some serious threats to the President
in having a smooth return to power.
The strategy document, entitled
2013-2015: Political power and
governance road map, believed to
have been prepared in the last quarter
of last year and had been the subject
of speculation, came to light
yesterday when it was published by
Premium Times, an online news
platform.
The crux of the strategy is a SWOT
analysis which underpinned the
President’s Strengths, Weaknesses,
Opportunities and Threats in the run
up to the decisive election.
In the SWOT analysis, reproduced by
Premium Times, the President’s
handlers also cited the strengths of
the President to include the power of
incumbency, access to secure cash,
the backing of a formidable political
structure, among others.
The document was produced after the
split of PDP, but before the exit of five
governors, who recently left the party
for APC.
Senior Special Assistant to the
President on Public Communications,
Dr. Doyin Okupe, said he was on
holiday yesterday, but claimed that “if
the President has a plan to win the
2015 elections, I can assure you that
it can never be found in Premium
Times.”
The SWOT analysis read in part
Strengths:
Power of incumbency and utilisation
of governance machinery, especially
the careful and legal deployment of
its propaganda and coercive
apparatus; secure financial resources
base and leveraging on strategic
media assets.
Others are formidable political
apparatus—a reformed, disciplined
and tightly controlled PDP— with
significant presence in all the 36
states and dominant control over 23
states;
Deep-rooted, nation-wide support
structures in the shape of Goodluck
Support Group and literally speaking,
hundreds of youths, women and
regional affiliates controlled and
supervised by the more dominant
support structures;
Effective and efficient implementation
of the transformation agenda in
critical national sectors; high
personal likeability rating, which has
to be further strengthened and
deepened;
When the chips are down, immense
support will be secured from the
National Council of State by ex-
leaders who value continuity and
order over instability and chaos.
Weaknesses
•A less than forceful Presidential
presence and infective deployment
and application of presidential power
The perceived appropriation of
presidential advocacy space by
exuberant partisans and fanatical
supporters who project a wrong
image of the presidency as a regional
agenda. This situation tends to
alienate moderate political forces
across the country whose sense of
co-ownership of the presidency
appears diminished
•A perceived sense of distance
between the Presidency and the PDP
that has opened the space for internal
dissention and outright rebellion by
party stalwarts. This sense of
disinterest and disengagement has
engendered a culture of apology
among Presidential spokespersons
whenever matters connecting Mr
President and the party appear on the
public sphere
•Following on the above, the reality of
Mr President being the leaders of the
nation and the LEADER OF THE
PARTY is not sufficiently grounded
•A technocratic cabinet that is not
fully politically engaged, especially in
media advocacy and community-
wide outreach programmes. This
unhelpful situation out burdens a
handful regime insiders in their
constant defense of The Presidency
and the Transformation agenda
•A presidential communication
strategy that is weak on proactive
propaganda and rapid response
•Inability of Presidential power
strategists to manage the
relationship between The Presidency
and the NASS to the degree that the
later, particularly the HOR, which is
dominated by the PDP, appears as an
outfit and mouthpiece of the
opposition
•Problematic relationship between
the Presidency and some former
heads of State when, in actuality, they
should constitute the bedrock of his
support
Opportunities
•Exploiting the current fractured state
of the NGF for maximum political
advantage by strengthening the co-
operative faction and sustaining the
pressure on recalcitrant PDP
governors
•Exploiting the opportunities inherent
in the putative fracturing of the
Northern Governors’ Forum by
strengthening co-operative governors
and sustaining pressure, directly and
through different front organizations,
on the recalcitrant governors
•Playing on the political ambitions of
regional champions, especially in the
North, to the degree and extent that
no unanimity of political purpose and
cohesive agenda is ever achieved
•The APC may appear as a
formidable threat initially but
substantive opportunities will abound
when ambitions and egos clash
among its principal promoters.
Strategic planning should factor in
the scenario in the designing of
intervention blueprint
•Exploiting the immense public
opinion opportunities in the current
war against terror in the North,
especially given the steady successes
thus far recorded by the NSA, and the
military high command through the
JTF
•Utilizing the social and economic
empowering and inclusive space
provided by SURE-P, particularly its
integrated community empowerment
schemes, to advertise and show case
the populist and pro-people
orientation of the government
Threats.
There are sufficient grounds to
believe that the NASS continues to
pose a threat to the effective exercise
of Presidential power in the areas of
budget-making processes and the
on-going amendments of the
constitution with specific reference to
devolution of power and tenure of
elected officials.
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/01/2015-aides-analyse-jonathan-can-win-lose/

Cramjones have more value to NL than all these loud-mouthed PDP E-rats.