[/b]As we approach the 2015 Presidential Election, the Campus Delight Team carried out a detailed analysis of the likely outcome of the 2015 Presidential Election.

Here is an analysis starting with the South Eastern part of Nigeria.

The following factors will decide the result:

PDP won convincingly in this region in 2011 Presidential Election but the figures were significantly overstated. The average voters’ turnover for the region was 67% which was even as high as 84% in Imo State. These figures were largely overstated even though PDP won convincingly in the region. For example, PDP got 1.38m, 1.14m and 1.18m votes in Imo, Anambra and Abia States respectively in the 2011 Presidential Election. It is a known fact that gubernatorial elections normally attract more voters because of the closeness to the electorates. In the 2013 gubernatorial election in Anambra State, the total votes cast was 465,891 votes which represents just 26% of the total registered voters. Also in the last gubernatorial election in Imo State, only a total of 740,363 votes were casted.

S/N STATE PDP ACN CPC ANPP Others TOTAL Reg. Voters Voter Turnout

1 ABIA 1,175,984 4,392 3,743 1,455 2,759 1,188,333 1,524,484 77.95%
2 ANAMBRA 1,145,169 3,437 4,223 975 3,435 1,157,239 2,011,746 57.52%
3 EBONYI 480,592 1,112 1,025 14,296 5,865 502,890 1,050,534 47.87%
4 ENUGU 802,144 1,755 3,753 1,111 5,246 814,009 1,303,155 62.46%
5 IMO 1,381,357 14,821 7,591 2,520 3,561 1,409,850 1,687,293 83.56%
TOTAL 4,985,246 25,517 20,335 20,357 20,866 5,072,321 7,577,212 66.94%


The inflation at the magnitude that it was done in 2011 was very easy because the main opposition parties did not mobilise their agents and party machineries for proper supervision in the region. CPC as a party in the last election lacked structures in this region while ACN was alleged did not focus too much on the presidential election as the party knew that it was behind both PDP and CPC in terms of the Presidential Elections.

However, the inflation of the figures in the presidential election at the same magnitude as was done in 2011 will be very difficult in 2015 although perfection is not possible in an election. Due to the fact that both Presidential and National Elections will take place in same day unlike 2011 where only the presidential election took place alone. Hence, the various candidates contesting on the platforms of the opposition parties for the National Assembly Election will mobilize their agents and party structure to ensure better supervision of the election as compared to 2011 since the Presidential Election will take place together with the National Assembly Election.

Another factor that will reduce the number of votes to be declared compared to 2011 Presidential Election is the use of the PVC as well as Card Readers for the 2015 elections. It is a known fact that the voters’ register is inflated but with the use of the PVC, it will prune down inflated voters’ register.

The opposition parties has no major fear in this region. Their overall strategy should be to mobilise effectively their party structure to sure that the election is strictly supervised to reduce the inflated figures which was declared for PDP in 2011 and which may be declared in 2015 if not checked. APC as an opposition party cannot perform worse that it did in 2011 in this region (it can’t be worse than that). It had no sitting governor (albeit Defected), senators, and House of Representatives members prior to 2011 election hence the party is expected to perform better in 2015.

A major decision to be made by the APC is where to zone the VP slot. It is a concluded case that APC’s presidential candidate must come from the North because that is where the party can get majority of its votes and politics they say is a game of number. I will say that APC should only zone its VP slot to the South East only if based on its research and consultations, the South East can deliver some significant votes. Obviously PDP will win in this region but APC should only zone its VP ticket to the region if at least some significant votes can be delivered to it otherwise the Party should consider another Zone (South West) that can deliver significant votes instead of wasting the slot.

VERDICT:
PDP will win the Presidential Election in all the States in this region but with a reduced number of votes compared to 2011 (because 2011 votes were significant inflated). From the about 5m votes declared for PDP in 2011, it may not be more than between 3.5m to 4m in 2015.

APC will perform better in 2015 than 2011 in this region. By how much will depend on the decisions taken by the Party as enumerated above.

To be continued...for more analysis, check out www.campusdelight.org

http://campusdelight.org/politics/2015-election-analysis-parties-fare-part-1-south-east-analysis-2/

I knew votes were inflated in the SE and SS region.

The best way to know is to assess the voters turnout in the local election and the presidential election 7 days apart

emiye: I knew votes were inflated in the SE and SS region.
The best way to know is to assess the voters turnout in the local election and the presidential election 7 days apart

You are correct.

@op there was no gubernatorial election 8th Anambra in 2013.

There was an election