So here i was playing around with my excel. This was what I came up with as projection for the 2015 elections. The assumptions:

1. I assumed that voting will follow similar pattern as 2011 in other regions except south west, and North east.
2. I assumed that because of the unrest in the North east, voter turn out will drip by 50%
3. I used the number of PVc so far collected to extrapolate.

The second projection is on the assumption that voting will take place in the north east normally.

Don't Vote for GMB. He is unrepentant guerrilla fighter.

But if doesn't can we still be left in peace

Gej's silence doesn't call for nothing, that nigga is up with something

osamaBUSH:
But if doesn't can we still be left in peace

I think you should tag some of their workers here for faster response

What I have there is a worst case scenario analysis. With amaechi and Oshiomole in South South, PDP can't score 90%. At the North-Central, PDP no longer holds sway, PDP will definitely not perform as much as they did in 2011. As things looks from here, it's going to be an easy win for GMB.

This cannot be far from reality. The more you do the permutation, the more you realize that PDP/GEJ cannot win the presidential election come February 14th. I have done similar thing, though before the PVC numbers were released, and even giving GEJ 90 and 95% with higher voters turnout in his stronghold, the outcome is still DEFEAT to him at the polls!

GMB 2015

To make the matter worse, voter turn out we're highest in PDP's strongholds in 2011. South West had a voter turn of 32% compared to South-south and South-East 67% turn out. If the turn out is higher in 2015( like we was at Osun and Ekiti governorship elections), the margins will widen even further.

hyfr:
Gej's silence doesn't call for nothing, that nigga is up with something

GEJ is silent?