The past two years have seen unprecedented political
upheaval in Nigeria. As the country readies for elections
Saturday, the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is
facing its first real challenge since coming to power at
the end of military rule in 1999 in the form of Nigeria’s
lead opposition party, the All Progressive’s Congress
(APC).
At least three regional Nigerian parties came together
to form the mega-opposition party, the APC, in
February 2013. It was a first for Nigeria, and naysayers
said the new party would implode.
But then prominent PDP members started jumping ship
for the APC.
Five governors came on board at once, then 37
representatives, then 11 senators. And the defections
continued.
But the momentum stalled in 2014 as the PDP
rebounded - with a new party leader and efforts to
reconcile.
The defections started going both ways.
This back and forth continues even now with just days
to go before presidential and parliamentary elections.
The APC and the PDP keep gaining and losing
members.
Analysts say the results of the March 28 vote could kick
off another wave of party-swapping ahead of governor
and state assembly races April 11.
“You find people jumping ship quite unashamedly to the
party of the president-elect,” said Dawn Dimowo, a
political analyst at the strategy firm Africa Practice in
Abuja.
She said the ground the APC broke in Nigerian party
politics had a lot to do with good timing.
“They were able to capitalize on the fact that there was
disenchantment within the PDP. There were people who
were ready to quit the party and move to the APC. So
it got a big boost from that,” said Dimowo.
One of the main points of contention: whether President
Goodluck Jonathan had broken the PDP agreement to
rotate the presidency between north and south. Some
within the PDP believed the north was owed another
term when Jonathan, a southerner, ran and won in
2011.
But Nigerian political scientist Kabir Mato said the APC
is riding a sea change.
“Citizens are gradually inching away from the
traditional politics of ethnicity, religion and regionalism
to a politics of dividends of democracy… So I think it’s
simply the desire that there should exist an alternative
that could give a platform for people in the event that
we are dissatisfied with what’s happening here,” said
Mato.
Jonathan has brushed off the defections. Such is
politics, he told reporters in a televised media chat in
February.
“There [are] no permanent friends. There [are] no
permanent enemies. There are permanent interests,”
said Jonathan.
The APC has a majority in the House. It counts 14 out
of Nigeria’s 36 governors.
But Jonathan has the incumbent advantage. The ruling
party is also seen as having benefited from the six-
week election postponement over security issues in the
north. But the vote still looks too close to call.
APC presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari
dominated the mostly Muslim north in the 2011 vote
but did poorly in the south. The APC has campaigned
hard there this time, with Buhari swinging through the
region again this week.
Political analyst Dimowo said the southwest tops her
watch list.
“He’s going to pick up a lot more votes in the south
this time around than he did in 2011 and that’s eroding
the PDP’s base. So it’s quite exciting to see what is
going to happen,” said Dimowo.
The APC has cast this election as a referendum on 16
years of PDP rule. The party symbol is a broom and it
is pledging a clean sweep. But some wonder how much
of an alternative the APC really is. There’s a fair bit of
the PDP old guard in this new party, and probably more
will join if Buhari wins.


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