There are good reasons for Buhari to be hopeful that he would win.

1. Bigger Base: In 2003, 2007 and 2011, Buhari was essentially a northern candidate with little support in the south. But he was clearly the darling of the “core north” and not the middle belt. Either as candidate of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) or the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Buhari never had any impact in the south and most of the middle belt. Today, as candidate of the bigger All Progressives Congress (APC) — which has swallowed ANPP and CPC, in addition to the south-west party, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) — Buhari has a bigger and broader base. He never won 25% in any southern state before; this time, expect him to hit that threshold in all southern states, except perhaps Bayelsa.

2. Bigger Purse: The formation of APC has not only given Buhari a bigger national platform, his war chest is now heavier. In the past, his finances were highly limited. He could not afford all the necessary logistics, such as buying enough campaign vehicles and maintaining them. He could not afford expensive media advertising. His supporters often taxed themselves to make expenses on his behalf. In 2015, the story has changed. Buhari is all over the newspapers, radio, TV and the Internet. He has a deep pocket courtesy of the support of governors such as Rotimi Amaechi and Aliyu Wamakko as well as wealthy Nigerians like Bola Tinubu and former vice-president, Atiku Abubakar. Buhari, from struggling to fuel his campaign vehicles long ago, now uses chartered flights.

3. Bigger Youth Support: Buhari was never the darling of the educated youth population until now. In 2011, Jonathan monopolised the market with his hold on the social media, where the youth are the most active. Buhari never had a Facebook page or Twitter handle. However, since he won the presidential ticket of his party in December, the story has changed completely. Youths who used to criticise Jonathan regularly on the social media simply moved to Buhari’s camp and, at some stage, drowned out pro-Jonathan voices. They have also been creative and proactive, criticising every move of Jonathan swiftly and generating a lot of viral messages against the president.

4. Better Image: Buhari used to be seen as a religious fundamentalist who was bent on Islamising Nigeria. He had also been credited with a couple of statements that seemed to paint him in that light. Long ago, he reportedly said Muslims should only vote for Muslims — a statement he denied. Last year, he was quoted as blaming Jonathan for the war against Boko Haram, reportedly saying a northerner gave Niger Delta militants but a southerner was instead killing northerners. All these reports painted him as a northern and Islamic champion. These impressions have since vanished, starting possibly from the moment he was attacked in Kaduna last year by suspected Boko Haram militants.

5. Critical Issues: For once, the electioneering relegated sectional issues substantially to the background. Gone are the days of “it is our turn” or “Nigeria will be ungovernable if we don’t have it”. Jonathan, as the sitting president, has been confronted with issues of insecurity and corruption which his opponents have highlighted very well. Indeed, the message resonates well with many Nigerians who, despite opposing Buhari in the past, are now saying they would rather have him than four more years of Jonathan. Issues such as the kidnap of Chibok schoolgirls, the alleged $20 billion missing oil money, poor power supply and the menace of Boko Haram are uppermost on their minds. In a sense, the “change” campaign is more of an anti-Jonathan sentiment.

These can only bring him close to, but can never grant him even a near win.

NIGERIA, Kai Buhari
A Fi Ci, change Buhari

He's dreaming as usual!

The demons that love to suck the blood of Nigerians in the North is paralysed by the might of our God. Every almajiri that sees Southerners and people of other religion apart from their own as their enemies, instead of their elites will be crippled by the Power of the most high before the day of the election. Let there be division in the camp of our common enemy, All foreign power working hard to disintegrate Nigeria will be disgraced and put to shame, People who are already excited at the possibility of slaying innocent people because of the misfortune of their candidates will be thrown into chaos before Saturday. I pray the stronghold of electoral violence in the land is broken forever in Nigeria. Never again will Nigeria be held bound by any group, cabal or strong men who fight tooth and nail to take us ransome. Above all Lord God almighty, let the person you ordained from the foundations of the earth to rule Nigeria in 2015 win the election. May Nigeria find greatness in this generation. May our blessed and fertile land yield milk for us in the morning and honey for us at night. May we all enjoy the good of the land after several years of pain and lack and neglect. O true God of creation, accept this prayer and bless and give victory to everyone who wants your will to be done in Nigeria. You direct the affairs of men and stir the heart of Kings, steer us into Greatness. Let love increase in our hearts while division and hatred diminish forever. Let the peace we claim in our religion be brought to use for such a time as this. Pray for the peace of Nigeria, in her own peace lies your own. May God bless you if your deepest wishes and prayer are captured above regardless of your choice candidate. Amen