Saturday, 11 April 2015
For Lagos, For Life: Comparing Manifestos of our Guber Candidates
For Lagos, For Life: An objective Comparison of Both Gubernatorial Candidates Manifestos

Introduction

Lagos: A Background into the world’s 7th most populous city

The very incidence of Lagos is a near crisis situation. Lagos is the world’s 7th largest city with a reported population of 21 million as at 2014 making Lagos the largest Metropolitan area in Africa.
This wouldn’t have mattered much however the Total Land mass of our beloved state is 902KM2 (the least of any state in the country) translating to a population density of 12,700 per square Kilo Meter, making Lagos the 5th most densely populated country in the entire world.

This makes everything exponentially difficult to manage, Traffic, waste, Health, Roads, Security, you name it, it’s a tall order to keep any one of these critical parts of human existence in such a condition as ours


Fashola’s Legacy: Why Lagos Governorship has zero tolerance for inexperience

Charged with this near impossible feat in 2007, Fashola not only brought the areas of existence identified above (and more) under control. Everything received marked improvement under his administration.
Governance only begins when everyone being governed begins to feel its impact at their social strata and the different areas of life. The Fashola administration visibly improved the quality of life for everyone in the state.
Fashola’s stellar performance however cannot be detached from his background before assuming office. He was the Chief of Staff for 4 years under the Tinubu administration, a role similar to ‘aide de camp’ in the military. Thus he was actively involved in the formulation of policies and building the framework on which Lagos now runs on today. This is why he hit the ground running when he assumed office, he knew exactly how Lagos was to work.
Today the Fashola administration has excelled without doubt, making him inarguably the best governor this country has ever produced. He is the

• Recipient of the Yitzak Rabin Center for African Development Governor of the decade for peace Award(2009)
• Recipient of Award for excellence in Leadership, Martin Luther King Foundation(2010)

The current Chief Executive of the state, Babatunde Raji Fashola is no less than a six sigma event in my humble opinion, lined up with the likes of Beethoven, Michael Jackson, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Warren Buffet, Tiger woods, Michael Jordan (by now you should get a feel of the list I’m talking about)
However can we honestly detach his success from his role as aide de camp to the governor (if you allow me), it would be impossible to do so.
The machinery of governance is inextricably intricate and especially so in a city like Lagos, putting together a frame work to manage 21 million people everyday is not easy, thus it almost seems as though Fashola was groomed for his role as governor which further lends credence to his stellar success.


The Gubers: Our Candidates


Elections are around the corner again, and as long as we live in Lagos, this concerns you and I, we have been charged at this time to select the next Chief executive of the state. This is a grave responsibility that must be addressed with the highest amount of sanity and sobriety because it determines to a very large extent the course of our existence over the next 4 years.
It must be devoid of all sentiment and bias, our recent ordeal with the president with ‘no shoes’ must serve as a harsh reminder of the fact that the selection of leadership must never be mixed with the intangibility of sentiments. Leaders must be selected strictly on merit because they determine the outcomes of the lives of others.
For the Lagos Gubers, the stakes are the highest yet, akin almost to that of the presidency of our dear nation because Lagos hosts over 10% of it’s populace and serves as the economic nerve center.
Up till this point it has been a 2-horse race and to this end we examine both candidates

• Jimi Agbaje
• Akinwunmi Ambode

Their Manifestos

This platform would be inappropriate to thoroughly review their manifestos, however we take a cursory look at the tenets of each candidate’s proposition for our dear state

Jimi Agabaje
Bold Opportunities: New Ideas

• Education: He expresses shock that a majority of our Children still don’t pass WAEC after 15 years under APC
• Health care: He plans to gradually raise our share of the budget devoted to health care till we attain WHO standards
• Quality of Life: Lagos is currently ranked the 137th(recently we’ve moved up to 138th position), worst place to live in. (This means that there are 137 places far more worse than Lagos to live in in the world i.e out of the 140 places rated, Lagos is the 3rd best).
Jimi however wants to improve the quality of life based on the level of investment the state attracts
• He proposes a functional ocean economy
• He proposes Entrepreneural governance, enlarging the private sector to bring ideas to life
• He proposes better habitation, to upgrade slums and provide affordable housing
Akinwunmi Ambode
Further Consolidationg APC’s Vision which includes
• Representing the change that has brought remarkable changes in Lagos including infrastructure, security and service
• To continue to ensure the Lagos diversity, with continued religious tolerance, a haven for foreign investors and inarguably the most efficiently run state in the country
• Continuing to make Lagos an example of responsible and responsive governance


Cross Examination

Prima facie, both look good, but a critical look at both their manifestos provides insight into what we’re to expect from whoever wins

Jimi Agbaje

Jimi starts off with a critism of the current administration’s efforts in education and extends it into healthcare and quality of life.

Education

First off, I have a challenge with the fact that he starts with a would be sore point of the current administration.
The challenge in education is not far fetched from Lagos’ population density which trickles down into classroom density of between 50-100 pupils per classroom. This situation however is being managed rigorously. I’ll tell you how I know how if you permit me to lend my personal interactions with a secondary school pupil at this point.

His name is Damilola Lawal, an SS3 student of Igbobi Senior High school, Somolu Lagos.

I became particularly impressed when we spoke and He told me
• The school organizes tutorial classes for them before everyone gets to school and afterwards everyday
• During the Christmas break they were in school until a day before Christmas and resumed almost immediately after the New year celebrations.
• They go to school on Saturdays
• WAEC is actually free for them (i.e the state pays)

Mr Agbaje has pledged to do this yet in the larger details of his manifesto, he fails to address the core problem: we need more schools, classrooms in the state. Simply looking at the class density tells you that changing that alone (the ideal scenario is 25-30 students per class) will alter greatly the academic performance of the students. He proposes other measures, but this is at the heart of the problem.
Which brings us to why there aren’t more schools, the availability of land is an obvious challenge and it unless he tells how he plans to address this, then his approach is inadequate. He needs to tell us how he will ensure a 70% pass rate, clearly.

Healthcare

He proposes improvement in healthcare with community based clinics and mobile micro clinics. This will be particularly tough because the Fashola administration has thrived particularly well in this regard. I creed your indulgence once again to delve into my personal experience in this regard:
I suddenly took ill on a certain day last year, I had a bout of diarrhoea and in less than hour I was totally dehydrated and could barely walk. I don’t take ill so at this point I had no hospital plan, insurance or whatever. As soon as I parked my car at the office, a concerned neighbour noticed me and urged me to walk to a health centre of some sort barely 50 meteres from where I was. It was at best a couple of rooms, maybe 4 in all with less than 10 staff. But I saw a Doctor and I was treated for next to nothing, (that’s one of the reasons I’m alive to write this article). It wasn’t until later I got to find out that such places are called Primary Health Center. It had affected me, even before I was aware of it. I don’t know about you, but this is close enough for me.


Funtional Ocean Economy

This really is a very innovative point on his agenda where he proposes to develop Marinas, seafronts with supporting logistics and infrastructure integrating Epe and Ikorodu as functional finshing hubs.

Entrepreneurial Governance

This is also very innovative where he proposes 100,00 Vocational and internships annually and plans to set aside 5% of the state procurement budget for entrepreneurs.
Housing
On this point he offers little over what’s in force, offering 150,000 housing units by 2018.

Akinwunmi Ambode

Further Consolidationg APC’s Vision which includes
• Representing the change that has brought remarkable changes in Lagos including infrastructure, security and service
• To continue to ensure the Lagos diversity, with continued religious tolerance, a haven for foreign investors and inarguably the most efficiently run state in the country
• Continuing to make Lagos an example of responsible and responsive governance
Ambode’s proposition is clear, decisive and revolves around 1 point, consolidating on the current governance structure and perhaps improving it.
Analysis

Jimi’s Manifesto

While the Agbaje manifesto is strong on innovation, it lacks thoroughly on consolidating the effort of the current administration. His proposition is full of changing or upgrading the status quo while downplaying or not mentioning at all the current framework. This is expected because Mr Agbaje has no real experience in governance or government.

But will his ideas though laudable to a degree (largely they are the obvious seeming lapses of the current administration and the logical next step in some cases) be sufficient to run this behemoth of a city.

I’m an Entrepreneur by profession, if not for anything I should be jumping at his proposition because of his leanings towards Entrepreneurial governance, but somehow it doesn’t excite me. Every good business person know that in the early stages of business, keeping your business alive and profitable is more important than innovation. When push comes to shove, it’s a question of what pays the bills, not how many ideas you have. As you grow and achieve stability, innovation becomes necessary to stay competitive and increase your margins perhaps.
Lagos at this point needs a manager more than an innovator. The existing framework which is tested and proven to be effective only needs improvement and at the very best scaling, we don’t need change as much as we need management in Lagos.
To say innovation is unnecessary will be both myopic and retrogressive, however a look at our management: innovation mix should be 80:20 for now. Mr Agbaje leans more into innovation than managing the crisis called Lagos. Only if there is continued effective management will we be the space and resources for innovation.


The Candidate: Pedigree and Experience

Is JK OK?

Then there’s the question of experience and pedigree. One fundamental challenge I have with Mr Agbaje’s candidacy is the fact that after he contested for governor and lost in 2007, for the next 8 years, he did nothing to bolster his experience and exposure within the governance space.
A political appointment as a commissioner or a CEO of one of the numerous Agencies or Authorities would have sufficed, rather it seems he waited for 8 another years to re-contest.
As strong as his manifesto is with all the innovation it possess, the background of this candidate is his number 1 disqualifier.
While Jimi talks tall, we have no proof whatsoever that he can run the state by virtue of what he’s done before this time in the administration of the state or related parastatals, and thus deliver on his ‘innovations’. The sheer pressure of running the state will serve as enough of a distraction for anyone who wants to run it.

Ambo’s Manifesto

I take very little time to review his manifesto because I’ve lived it for the past 8 years. Lagos works. I love LASTMA, I love the fact that the roads in the interiors are getting tarred. I love the fact that Oshodi and several other areas are safe now.
Ambo is clearly a continuation of what is. His 27 years of experience in government must have taught him that you don’t change what works. He does very little to deviate from Fashola’s antecedents, he emphasizes the gains and seeks to improve the opportunities, that’s all.
While admittedly he isn’t as creative and as bold in his proposition as his opponent, this must be the clarity and wisdom of experience speaking (or not speaking in this instance).
When it comes to being innovative, even Ambo’s proposition on tourism is a consolidation of what the Fashola administration has been working on


Conclusion

I thus conclude that Mr Agbaje would be the most unsuitable of the 2 candidates for his lack of cognate experience in affairs of managing the state, which is thus reflected in his manifestos leaning towards innovation rather than management.
If we have a well-run state, we won’t need free internet because businesses will be profitable and be able to pay for their subscriptions.
The functional ocean economy can come only when half the time our population stays healthy, our cars run on good roads and we live in peace and security. Effective management not new ideas will make the above happen.

Hmmmm

So in a nutshell, you chose Ambode because he didn't mention consolidation and has no experience. Let me ask you.


When Lateef-Jakande became governor, when Mandela became president, when Abraham Lincoln became president. Did they have any public experience? No!

They came from outside to change the status-quo. You don't tow the same line, do the same thing and expect a different result. Lagos today had been milked by Tinubu in the name of Alpha beta. Why didn't you mention that in your analysis? I can go on and on.


Lagos needs Jimi Agbaje!