As the global recession is worsening, which African countries do you guys think will suffer the most?
For me I think African counties that heavily dependent on aids are going to be the ones hardest hit, for example Uganda, Kenya, Ghana and South Africa.
This are links to what has being happening
http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/20/anglo-america-diversify-markets-equity_miners_07.html

Is South Africa Heading For A Recession?
http://international-financial-affairs.suite101.com/article.cfm/is_south_africa_heading_for_a_recession

beystwin:

As the global recession is worsening, which African countries do you guys think will suffer the most?
For me I think African counties that heavily dependent on aids are going to be the ones hardest hit, for example Uganda, Kenya, Ghana and South Africa.
This are links to what has being happening
http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/20/anglo-america-diversify-markets-equity_miners_07.html

Is South Africa Heading For A Recession?
http://international-financial-affairs.suite101.com/article.cfm/is_south_africa_heading_for_a_recession

Nigeria is also heavily dependent on AID, Oil purchases and financial injection from Nigerians in foreign lands. No economy in Africa seems insulated in anyway. Even Zimbabwe will be affected.

Kobojunkie:

Nigeria is also heavily dependent on AID, Oil purchases and financial injection from Nigerians in foreign lands. No economy in Africa seems insulated in anyway. Even Zimbabwe will be affected.

Strike out AID from that list - we received 'only' $3.5b from 1980-2000, so we cannot be said to be 'heavily' dependent on AID.

Remittances and oil revenue are our biggest external revenue generators, but I believe the key to Nigeria weathering this recession is to toe the same path as China is being advised to do - create more of an internal economy, strengthen trade and production within our borders for internal consumption and growth. Granted no one is isolated and it will affect all, this is what we need to do.

In the long run, the 'recession' will affect those in government more than anything else bu reducing the money available to steal. The ordinary Nigerian continues to eke out a living with bare necessities not even available - he doesn't hold credit cards, or large government loans. The large informal economy in Nigeria is largely (but not completely) isolated from the external problems abroad, so it will continue to run pretty much the same.

This is a great depression,factories,businesses,small and big are closing down in england,people are losing their jobs en-mass and nobody seems to know what is happening.

Africa without sense of direction as always will be doomed,meanwhile,if we can wise up,africa will never suffer too bad  because all we need is the basics,agriculture,we should be able to grow enough to export.The crunch can never affect food industry.

Africa is bleeped!

If it continues to look OUTSIDE of its borders for what it can create inside of its borders. The problem is that Africa is external looking instead of internal looking.

Those countries that can create and feed its people will THRIVE.

Those like Nigeria that continues to look at the GLOBAL market will contract on itself and implode.

I agree with debosky. Nigeria does not heavily depend on aid because most Western countries are reluctant to give Nigeria financial support in the first place, as in their perception, corruption is rampant in our country. Ghana and Uganda get more financial support than Nigeria does, because the West seems to be largely pleased with the way they are running their economy and therefore rewards them with aid, so to speak. Many Western countries are enthusiastic about sending money there. The problem is, however, that the budget of these countries is thus largely based on foreign aid – e.g. 60% of Uganda’s budget is derived from foreign aid- and if this aid were ever to cease (due to the financial crisis these Western countries are rapidly running out of money themselves), countries like Ghana and Uganda would be in trouble. Nigeria does not have that problem. Our budget is based on oil revenue, not foreign aid. The budget is calculated on an estimated oil price of roughly $45 per barrel. Although the oil price has dropped below this now, Nigeria still has a lot of money reserve – we are in the top 10 of the world in terms of money reserve. Thus, we have something to fall back on, which means we won’t be hit as hard by the financial crisis as countries that are dependent on foreign aid.
I believe that Nigeria should invest a lot in agriculture at this time – this could help ensure that we weather the recession without sustaining too much damage.

beystwin:

I agree with debosky. Nigeria does not heavily depend on aid because most Western countries are reluctant to give Nigeria financial support in the first place, as in their perception, corruption is rampant in our country.

That all depends on how you look at AID that comes into Nigeria and who benefits from it. Nigeria as a country has enough resources and so does not need AID, however, many of the people in Nigeria need AID. With groups like UNICEF and other NGO’s running a huge portion of health care in that country, I think it is clear to note that we may be get the least when it comes to portions but we do depend a great deal on the little we get.

beystwin:

Ghana and Uganda get more financial support than Nigeria does, because the West seems to be largely pleased with the way they are running their economy and therefore rewards them with aid, so to speak. Many Western countries are enthusiastic about sending money there. The problem is, however, that the budget of these countries is thus largely based on foreign aid – e.g. 60% of Uganda’s budget is derived from foreign aid- and if this aid were ever to cease (due to the financial crisis these Western countries are rapidly running out of money themselves), countries like Ghana and Uganda would be in trouble. Nigeria does not have that problem. Our budget is based on oil revenue, not foreign aid.

Over half of our budget goes to paying salaries and wages. A large number of Nigerians end up not benefiting from what is left and so the AID that comes in, be it from western countries or from pockets of Nigerians abroad remains essential to helping prop up those forgotten/ignored by the system.

beystwin:

The budget is calculated on an estimated oil price of roughly $45 per barrel. Although the oil price has dropped below this now, Nigeria still has a lot of money reserve – we are in the top 10 of the world in terms of money reserve. Thus, we have something to fall back on, which means we won’t be hit as hard by the financial crisis as countries that are dependent on foreign aid.
I believe that Nigeria should invest a lot in agriculture at this time – this could help ensure that we weather the recession without sustaining too much damage.

We have believed that since the 70’s. It is almost 40 years later and we still want to keep believing Nigeria should invest a lot in agriculture?

Nigeria could only come up with "slashing political officers salary by 10%"

for a solution in this crisis.

My country!!!

Kobojunkie wrote:

We have believed that since the 70’s. It is almost 40 years later and we still want to keep believing Nigeria should invest a lot in agriculture?

What is wrong with investing in agriculture? Take Marocco, for example. They invested in agriculture and are now reaping the benefits, as food prices have soared.
The world population is increasing, as is Nigeria's population. Investing in agriculture would help meet the needs of our own population, and it would be much easier to rule the country if everybody had enough to eat and was satisfied.

Was your question ironic, kobojunkie? Or are you trying to say that we should have done this a long time ago, instead of merely believing it?

beystwin:

Kobojunkie wrote:
What is wrong with investing in agriculture? Take Marocco, for example. They invested in agriculture and are now reaping the benefits, as food prices have soared.
The world population is increasing, as is Nigeria's population. Investing in agriculture would help meet the needs of our own population, and it would be much easier to rule the country if everybody had enough to eat and was satisfied.

Was your question ironic, kobojunkie? Or are you trying to say that we should have done this a long time ago, instead of merely believing it?

Sure, I believe it is the common sense thing to do, but administration after administration, we have seen nothing of the sort so far. As @Gamine pointed out, instead of pumping more money into agriculture this time around, our dead president moved to cut wages as reaction to the crisis.

Kobojunkie:


Sure, I believe it is the common sense thing to do, but administration after administration, we have seen nothing of the sort so far. As @Gamine pointed out, instead of pumping more money into agriculture this time around, our dead president moved to cut wages as reaction to the crisis.

allocation for agriculture moved up to 12% from 7% the year before
I think the problem is the state government are not doing much
especially those in the 'agricultural states' apart from distributing donating
fertilisers to emirs and kinsmen. the dams are always been repaired or rebuilt
no statistics whatsoever to know how much is being produced and how many people
are being employed in that sector

Dis Guy:

allocation for agriculture moved up to 12% from 7% the year before
I think the problem is the state government are not doing much
especially those in the 'agricultural states' apart from distributing donating
fertilisers to emirs and kinsmen. the dams are always been repaired or rebuilt
no statistics whatsoever to know how much is being produced and how many people
are being employed in that sector

I am sorry when I am looking for change in the agricultural sector, I am looking for increases around 300%, not 12%. We are so way below where we ought to be. and a mere 12% increase is not going to cut it. There is ofcourse the issue of corruption and all that also needs to be curbed so the money actually goes into agricultural programs that actually help move us up and out of where we are today.

Kobojunkie:

I am sorry when I am looking for change in the agricultural sector, I am looking for increases around 300%, not 12%. We are so way below where we ought to be. and a mere 12% increase is not going to cut it. There is ofcourse the issue of corruption and all that also needs to be curbed so the money actually goes into agricultural programs that actually help move us up and out of where we are today.

300%in one year?? how much is the budget even?
and how much will go into education,security,health etc
in case you dont remember the price of oil is down $38!!
there's an increase in the annual allocation to the sector
and that's a good thing considering there are other competing
sectors that bring generate money and employment too
plus we get grants from EU and others for the FADAMA program
now in its third year/phase

perhaps they should get more from the reserves into agriculture and follow every penny
something like a special fund for agriculture _{but xyz will end up accusing you of favouring
you part of the country}

Kobojunkie:

I am sorry when I am looking for change in the agricultural sector, I am looking for increases around 300%, not 12%. We are so way below where we ought to be. and a mere 12% increase is not going to cut it. There is ofcourse the issue of corruption and all that also needs to be curbed so the money actually goes into agricultural programs that actually help move us up and out of where we are today.

Agriculture is a long term investment, you aren't going to get a miracle in a couple of years.

Dis Guy:

300%in one year?? how much is the budget even?
and how much will go into education,security,health etc

I don’t understand your question above. Why can’t we include the 300% provision in the budget? How much goes to the other areas right now? What good has putting a pinch in each year done for us?

Dis Guy:

in case you dont remember the price of oil is down $38!!

That ought to be the very reason why we need to look to seriously shifting now from our dependence on oil towards agriculture. And we cannot get that until we invest a lot more than we do now in to agriculture.

Dis Guy:

there's an increase in the annual allocation to the sector
and that's a good thing considering there are other competing
sectors that bring generate money and employment too

lol…. You mean the 12% increase? What significant difference do we expect that 12% to make should the cost of oil remain at below $40 for the rest of the year?

Dis Guy:

plus we get grants from EU and others for the FADAMA program
now in its third year/phase

Grants or no grants, we need to increase investment in agriculture for us to see a significant shift from dependence on oil, to at least some balance with agriculture, in less than 20 years from now. The world is hungry NOW, not tomorrow, but NOW. We are hungry NOW. We need drastic change in the way we look at the agricultural sector, and we need that change NOW, not a penny each year change.

Dis Guy:

perhaps they should get more from the reserves into agriculture and follow every penny
something like a special fund for agriculture _{but xyz will end up accusing you of favouring
you part of the country}

That would be a great idea, but then again, we are still talking of Nigeria.

Kobo stop cursing Yar'adua oh, he is not dead. He is being healed by TB Joshua.