After posting consecutive quarterly financial results that have been deemed disappointments by many analysts, Electronic Arts' future is now more than ever being called into question. And according to an often critical new report from analyst Cowen Research, these financial troubles may be catching up with them. The report says that EA has "missed the current hardware cycle," and that the publisher is not likely to return to historical levels of operating income "anytime soon" (via GamesIndustry.biz).
"We believe that following serial earnings disappointments, Electronic Arts now deserves a lower valuation premium than the company has historically enjoyed," the report explains (and don't you just love such a jargonistic phrase as "valuation premium"?). "Since management first laid out its initial full year 2010 guidance and full year 2011 long-term guidance in February 2008, the company has failed to deliver on its earnings targets and has been forced to repeatedly revise down its guidance. Given this historical record, we do not think investors should place too much faith in management's current guidance."

It's a surprising assessment for what has historically been the juggernaut third party publisher of the industry. But it's also interesting in that this downturn in EA's valuation premium has occurred during a time when the publisher has actively attempted to focus less on safe sequels and franchises and more on creating original games, like Mirror's Edge and Dead Space last year. And despite setbacks in sales, EA has promised they'll continue taking more risks in 2009. "We can take risks because we are pretty sure our blockbusters are going to generate good revenue that allow us some cushion," said Jeff Brown, vice president of communications at EA, back in February. "So we're not living hand to mouth."

Cowen Research's report, however, warns that only 36.5 percent of sales in the next fiscal year are expected to come from unlicensed titles. The report even pegs specific sales estimates for select EA titles, with The Sims 3 at 1.5 million, Army of Two: The 40th Day at 1.3 million, Battlefield: Bad Company 2 at 1.1 million, and Mass Effect 2 at 1.1 million. Compare this with expectations of their upcoming original titles, with Dragon Age: Origins at 2.1 million, Dante's Inferno at 0.8 million, The Saboteur at 0.63 million, and finally Brutal Legend at 0.4 million.

The report even goes on to say that, given EA's current share price is far below its historical value, a buyout attempt may be possible, with Disney or Time Warner the most likely to approach the publisher with an offer. It's a far cry from the days when EA was threatening to consume Take-Two, isn't it?

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