Ok so whose economy will be the top dog in Africa when the interbank market opens on Monday? South Africa’s nominal GDP was estimated at R4.0 trillion for the year 2015, by its statistics agency (Stats SA).

Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimates the country’s nominal GDP to be N94 trillion at the end of 2015. The South African rand currently exchanges for 15.37 per dollar meaning the country’s R4.0 trillion GDP is equivalent to $260.2 billion.



Nigeria’s N94 trillion economy would be equivalent to $268.5 billion if the exchange rate were to move to N350 per dollar when trading begins on Monday.

It seems pretty close.

However there is also the issue of growth, which is also a factor in determining how big the nominal GDP will be by the end of 2016.

South Africa’s economy contracted by a dismal -1.2 percent in Q1, 2016, while Nigeria’s contracted by 0.37 percent.

Perhaps we can say Nigeria is doing less badly than South Africa, but sadly Africa’s largest economy and oil producer would have to lift growth rates to near double digits and double nominal GDP to N200 trillion, just to come close to the $500 billion plus economy it was in 2014.

nairametrics.

You don't lose what you have lost

Hmm

It will depend on the following;

1. what the naira finishes the end at what rate to the dollar

2. The price of oil, low or high

if come year end and naira is above N300 to the dolllar, definately nigeria will loose the no.1 spot as the biggest economy in africa in 2017, Egypt or South africa could emerge as No.1


Remember SA lost the 2nd spot in africa aftet their currency was hummered and devalued by 50%. It seems egypt who just got to no.2 in africa are facing similar problems like Nigeria, shortage of dollars, different forex dealers, and their currency is pegged at 8.87 pound, they have no choice than to devalue which in turn will throw them back at 3rd place, so south african rand is stable currently, so the unthinkeable could happen, SA could claim top spot once again. Lets wait and see

14:
It will depend on the following;

1. what the naira finishes the end at what rate to the dollar

2. The price of oil, low or high

if come year end and naira is above N300 to the dolllar, definately nigeria will loose the no.1 spot as the biggest economy in africa in 2017, Egypt or South africa could emerge as No.1


Remember SA lost the 2nd spot in africa aftet their currency was hummered and devalued by 50%. It seems egypt who just got to no.2 in africa are facing similar problems like Nigeria, shortage of dollars, different forex dealers, and their currency is pegged at 8.87 pound, they have no choice than to devalue which in turn will throw them back at 3rd place, so south african rand is stable currently, so the unthinkeable could happen, SA could claim top spot once again. Lets wait and see

South Africa yes! but EGYPT is way behind
Buhari has succeeded in destroying our naira and our economy

All the contenders have serious problems. But most have stable economies.
The problem is, in what direction are they each heading?
Leaving other nations for now, please be clear that-
OIL PRICE IS WORKING AGAINST US.
Moving on- over half the year gone, yet less than 5% of the budget has been implemented.
Factor in the following-
Acute food shortages, worsening each week, Abysmal power supply,
Uncertain petrol prices by next month,
Budget deficit already of over N700billion,
Continued pipeline bombings,
Continued boko haram insurgency,
Cuts in capital expenditure BEFORE THE DEFICITS WERE ANNOUNCED,
No obvious roadmap or timeline for the projects- or specifics on what's been jettisoned.
Now tell me, by what miracle will we maintain our fragile position?

aloeman15:
All the contenders have serious problems. But most have stable economies.
The problem is, in what direction are they each heading?
Leaving other nations for now, please be clear that-
OIL PRICE IS WORKING AGAINST US.
Moving on- over half the year gone, yet less than 5% of the budget has been implemented.
Factor in the following-
Acute food shortages, worsening each week, Abysmal power supply,
Uncertain petrol prices by next month,
Budget deficit already of over N700billion,
Continued pipeline bombings,
Continued boko haram insurgency,
Cuts in capital expenditure BEFORE THE DEFICITS WERE ANNOUNCED,
No obvious roadmap or timeline for the projects- or specifics on what's been jettisoned.
Now tell me, by what miracle will we maintain our fragile position?

South Africa also has issues with falling commodity prices especially Gold.

then Egypt has had to battle a sharp fall in tourism generated foreign exchange, mainly due to Terror attacks

fairheven:


South Africa also has issues with falling commodity prices especially Gold.

then Egypt has had to battle a sharp fall in tourism generated foreign exchange, mainly due to Terror attacks

South africa does not depend on minerals to generate an income, their economy is well diverse, so majority of their income come from service sector, hence they could raise $100bn on taxes in 2015/16 even though all commodity prices were low. The only major issue with mining companies is their workforce which is roughly 500 000 workers, may be affected by low commodity prices.

Thats the difference between Nigeria and SA

fairheven:


South Africa yes! but EGYPT is way behind
Buhari has succeeded in destroying our naira and our economy

He was told long ago to devalue and he was sturbbon about it, in this day in age, you cannot run an isolated economy while you trade with the world. all this was gonna be avoided had he devalued to N225, and then N250, gradually devalueing. first of all, why is buhari inerfering with the independ CBN?

The problem with protectionism is, you will never be competative in the world, which means, your economy will only be an internal economy, which is what is happening in nigeria. It had become an artificial economy, the biggest economy in africa pegging a currency, than letting it float like South Africa and kenya do, thats why those countries are so developed and progressive.

14:


He was told long ago to devalue and he was sturbbon about it, in this day in age, you cannot run an isolated economy while you trade with the world. all this was gonna be avoided had he devalued to N225, and then N250, gradually devalueing. first of all, why is buhari inerfering with the independ CBN?

The problem with protectionism is, you will never be competative in the world, which means, your economy will only be an internal economy, which is what is happening in nigeria. It had become an artificial economy, the biggest economy in africa pegging a currency, than letting it float like South Africa and kenya do, thats why those countries are so developed and progressive.

and now that they have decided to devalue.. he chose the black market rate... why not go with the official rate so that before it loses grand we can still have some value.

Good for thought