— The nuclear deal painstakingly
negotiated by the international community
with Iran has become the first victim of the
crisis provoked by the killing of Iranian
general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in a US
drone attack.
But while declaring its independence from the
JCPOA, Iran has not articulated any intention
to race towards weapons-grade uranium.
After a cabinet meeting in Tehran, Iran
announced Sunday that it would no longer
limit itself to the restrictions contained in the
deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan
of Action or JCPOA. The deal was implemented
in 2016, freezing Iran's nuclear program in
return for a progressive lifting of
international sanctions.
The announcement said "Iran will set its limits
based on its technical needs," essentially
rendering the JCPOA redundant if technically
still alive.
It was the fifth step in Iran's graduated
divorce from the nuclear deal, the latest stage
in a gradual chipping away at its provisions
that began last July in response to US
withdrawal from the deal and re-imposition of
tough sanctions.
Essentially Iran no longer recognizes any
limits on the operational aspects of its nuclear
program; including in enrichment capacity,
the extent (or degree) of enrichment, and
nuclear research and development.
In other words, Iran is prepared to let its
nuclear centrifuges spin.
But it also held out an olive branch. Foreign
Minister Mohamed Javid Zarif tweeted: "This
step is within JCPOA & all 5 steps are
reversible upon EFFECTIVE implementation of
reciprocal obligations. Iran's full cooperation
w/IAEA will continue."
A separate statement said Iran would
"continue to work with international nuclear
agencies and will return to JCPOA limits once
all sanctions are removed from the country."
Analysts noted that even as the JCPOA lurches
towards irrelevance, Iran has shown a
measure of self-restraint.
Hans Kristensen, Director of Nuclear
Information Project at the Federation of
American Scientists said "This does not (yet)
mean Iran is leaving JCPOA or building nuclear
weapons."
"Apparently, other limits of agreement are still
in place as is IAEA inspections," Kristensen
tweeted.
"Its 5th step away from its JCPOA
commitments is less harsh than the initially
feared resumption of 20% enrichment,"
tweeted Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project
at the International Crisis Group. "This shows
Iran still wants the Europeans on its side and
doesn't want to break the deal yet."
Eric Brewer, a former official at the US
National Security Council, agreed. He told
CNN: "They've clearly left themselves room to
maneuver," Brewer said. "And they clearly
chose not to come out with something more
aggressive in the wake of Soleimani's death -
like increasing enrichment to 20%."
Brewer said that the bigger question "is
whether Iran acts on this announcement by
adding more centrifuges." That could
potentially push it closer to developing a
nuclear weapon.
What matters is what Iran does next.
Michael Singh, a senior director at the
Washington Institute and formerly a senior
director for the Middle East at the NSC, told
CNN: "If it is just an announcement in
principle, that they do not consider
themselves bound by the JCPOA, it will be met
with a shrug by the US and others." But "If
they follow it up and take actions to increase
the levels by which they enrich uranium or
increase their stockpile that will actually bring
down the breakout time."
Vipin Narang, Associate Professor of Political
Science at MIT, points out that despite Iran's
announcement that it won't abide by
enrichment levels and quantities set by the
JCPOA, "it is still quite far from having
enough enriched uranium for a bomb, let
alone a functional arsenal because...of the
JCPOA."
A deal undone
The Trump Administration unilaterally
abandoned the JCPOA on May 8, 2018.
"This was a horrible, one-sided deal that
should have never, ever been made," Trump
said as he withdrew from the deal. "It didn't
bring calm, it didn't bring peace, and it never
will."
The other parties to the deal -- China, Russia,
the Europeans and Iran -- disagreed and
stayed the course. But the reimposition of
draconian sanctions by the US, sanctions that
had been largely lifted as Iran's reward for
signing up to the deal, gnawed away at its
credibility.
As tensions grew, the agreement known as the
JCPOA began to fray at the edges.
The Trump administration's policy of
"maximum pressure" against Iran, which
began after that May statement, included
crippling sanctions against its financial and oil
sectors. President Hassan Rouhani said last
week that the US "economic war" against Iran
had cost the country $200 billion. Iran has
lost nearly 90% of its oil exports, a key
source of revenue; the value of the rial has
plummeted, and the banking sector is under
stress. Even though the sanctions exempted
essential supplies, widespread shortages of
food, medicine and medicinal goods have
been reported throughout Iran.
Tehran responded to the US measures with
what it called "strategic patience" -- while
nagging the Europeans to make up for the
effect of US sanctions.
President Emmanuel Macron of France tried
to smooth the waters, proposing a $15 billion
credit line for Iran in return for its full
adherence to the JCPOA. He also welcomed
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad
Zarif to the G7 meeting in August and tried to
engineer a meeting between Trump and
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at the UN
General assembly.
But the dynamics were moving in the opposite
direction. As the noose tightened on Iran's oil
exports, it retaliated on several fronts: attacks
on oil tankers in the Gulf (by its own or proxy
forces), a growing drumbeat of rocket attacks
against US forces in Iraq, and most
spectacularly the cruise missile attacks against
Saudi oil plants in September.
The message was simple -- if we can't sell our
oil and gain the proceeds, we will try to
ensure others can't either.
At the same time, Iran chipped away at the
JCPOA. Beginning in July last year, it withdrew
every two months from some part of the
agreement. It exceeded agreed limits to its
stockpile of low-enriched uranium, and then
began enriching uranium.
Essentially, Iran was responding to America's
'maximum pressure' with 'maximum
resistance' -- but short of open war. The two
adversaries seemed set on a "no-peace, no-
war" course of attrition.
That remains the case after Soleimani's killing,
for all the anger and cries for revenge
emanating from Tehran. The Iranians and
their proxies will probably seek out targets of
opportunity around the world. But -- as the
Iranian leadership has already stressed -- they
will bide their time.
At the same time, the prognosis for the JCPOA
looks poor. At best it's in intensive care; at
worst it may struggle to survive the year.
There's been an almost helpless tone to
European calls for restraint in the aftermath
of the US drone strikes. France pleaded for
Iran to "quickly return to full compliance with
its nuclear obligations and to refrain from
further action to the contrary."
On Saturday, France, Germany and China
called on Iran to preserve the deal and to
avoid any measure that would violate it,
according to a statement from French Foreign
Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. Le Drian spoke to
Germany's Heiko Maas and China's Wang Yi in
separate phone calls.
There is scant chance of Iran listening in the
current environment. The Europeans are
nowhere near making up for the cost and
dislocation caused by US sanctions, the $15
billion line of credit has gone nowhere and
the Iranian economy is deep in recession.
Further and deeper withdrawals from the
JCPOA are likely in the months to come.
But that doesn't mean Iran will abandon the
deal altogether and race towards developing a
nuclear weapon. Eric Brewer and Ariane
Tabatabai have written in War on the Rocks
that Iranian policy is "designed to gradually
build pressure on the United States and
Europe by targeting key pillars of the
agreement, rather than racing for a short-
notice breakout capability."
There is still plenty of strategic patience in
Tehran. In light of the country's deepening
economic crisis and the sporadic flare-up of
popular protests, the leadership may decide
that upping the ante against the US is
unaffordable, and full-scale war
unsustainable.
By comparison, threatening to abandon the
nuclear restraints so painstakingly negotiated
by the Obama administration is almost risk
and cost-free.
source_
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/04/middleeast/iran-soleimani-nuclear-deal-intl/index.html

The terrorist nation should act irrationally and see the consequences...

This ongoing events doesn’t need unnecessary emotion sentiments. One need to understand what played out between the two countries before ditching moronic comments. If you don’t understand the rudiments , just keep watching what will likely come out this week

Iran did not stop the enrichment of uranium for ulterior motives all this year rather it was been done secretly; now they have seen a lead way not to abide with the agreement they entered into with USA.

what i know is that iran cant win this..
and also for there to be a ww3, can you fantom the scale of destruction this could bring?