2023: Debunking The Propaganda That Southern Candidate Will Lose In The North Under PDP Platform

By Tonye Barcanista

Nigeria is made of 36 states with the north and south each having 19 and 17 states respectively. The north also has FCT as added advantage in the equation.

In 2015, there was shift in power to the north when President Goodluck Jonathan (as then was) from Bayelsa state of Peoples Democratic Party suffered a historic defeat to General Muhammadu Buhari RTD of All Progressive Congress from Katsina state. Buhari assumed office as President on 29th May, 2015.

By May 2023, President Muhammadu Buhari is expected to conclude his 8 year presidential double terms, and the popular expectation, especially of southern extraction, is that the next president of the country in 2023 should come from the region.

Should the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, accede the popular demand for the southern part of the country to produce the next President of Nigeria in 2023, the party will be one leg into the Presidential Villa in 2023 even before the election day because the south, which is the party's stronghold is guaranteed of giving block votes to their "son".

Contrary to concern of some stakeholders, which is fuelled by sections of the media, that the "north" will not vote for any candidate from the south under PDP, facts on ground show that a candidate from southern extraction is guaranteed to enjoy support in the entire Northcentral except Niger state, some parts of Northeast and Southern Kaduna part of Northwest. This is because the north, which is made of 19 states and FCT, is neither politically homogenous nor do they vote in same direction in any President contest.

NORTHCENTRAL
Since the return of democracy in 1999, all the six the states in the north central except Niger state have always voted in similar political direction. Specifically, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, and Nasarawa states alongside FCT have always been aligned with candidates of PDP in Presidential elections.

In fact, in the 2003 and 2011 elections, these states resisted General Muhammadu Buhari movement and preferred southerners Chief Olusegun Obasanjo and Dr Goodluck Jonathan from Ogun and Bayelsa states respectively. In 2007 these states, like other states in the south, supported Umaru Musa Yar'adua against Muhammadu Buhari to actualise shift of power to the north after Obasanjo's term.

The 2015 election was the first time since 1999 that these Northcentral states voted against a PDP candidate due to the Boko Haram insurgency and propaganda that General Buhari of All Progressive Congress was coming with his military might to nip it to the bud. Sadly, Buhari, as president, only succeeded in worsening the woes of Northcentral people with rising spate of terrorism (banditry), Fulani herdsmen brigandage and ethnic cleansing of Indigenous tribes.

In 2023, I see no reason these Northcentral states (save Niger state) will not vote en-mass for Southern candidate under PDP platform going by their electoral tradition.

NORTHEAST:
The voting pattern of the six (6) states of Northeast, like other parts of the north, is heavily influenced by religious bias.

Areas like Taraba state, 60% Adamawa, Southern Gombe, Southern Bauchi and Southern Borno areas usually align with choices of electorates from the southern part of the country in any presidential election due to religion. In fact, they display strong preference for someone of Christian religion.

In Adamawa state, PDP has only lost Adamawa state on two occasions in any Presidential election since 1999, and that was when Musa Yar'adua (2007) and Goodluck Jonathan (2015) were flag bearers. Furthermore, Demsa, Ganye, Gayuk, Jada, Mayo-Belwa, Numan, Sheleng, Tungo, Lamurde LGAs in Adamawa south, Yola North, Yola South, Fufore, Girei and Gombi LGAs in Adamawa central, and Madagali and Michika in Adamawa North have always shown preference for Christian candidates from the southern part of Nigeria as witnessed in 2003, 2011 and even 2015 Presidential election. In 2011, Jonathan, without the support of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, gave Buhari a resounding defeat in Adamawa state with 508,314 votes over 344,526 gotten by Buhari.

In Taraba state, not even the "Sai Baba" wave of 2015 could swing the state away from Goodluck Jonathan of PDP despite the Boko Haram insurgency. Taraba is one state that any candidate from Southern extraction is guaranteed of popular votes in any Presidential election.

In Gombe state, Katunga, Shungum, Billiri and Banaga local government areas are solid PDP stronghold and sure bet for a southern Christian candidate due to religious factor. This is in addition to other seven (7) local government areas where 30-35% are almost guaranteed for the southern PDP candidate. In this state, PDP is guaranteed a minimum 35-40% votes in Gombe state.

While states like Yobe, Bauchi and Borno may not be favorable to southern candidate of Christian religion due to religious influence, PDP is almost guaranteed of 25% valid votes.

NORTHWEST
Northwest Nigeria is likely the only geopolitical zone that may not be favorable to voting for candidate of the south.

Traditionally, all seven states in the Northwest usually tilt towards Muhammadu Buhari direction. Chief Obasanjo and Dr Goodluck Jonathan as incumbent Presidents fall short in this zone.

However there is respite for the PDP in Kaduna state. This is because areas such as Sanga, Zangon Kataf, Kaura, Kauru, Kachia, Jaba, Jema'a, Kajuru, Chikun and Kaduna South local government areas are sure bankers for PDP due to the predominant Christians in these areas. Historically, these areas have strong bias for Christian candidates. In 2015, despite the APC wave in the entire northwest, these areas massively supported President Jonathan, and gave PDP its only Senator in the entire zone. The areas make up about 49-52% votes of Kaduna state.

Going by the aforementioned facts, it will be foolhardy for anyone to continue to hold that presidential candidate from the south will not deliver victory to PDP in any part of northern Nigeria. On the contrary, PDP will find it challenging in 2023 should it present a candidate from the north to succeed incumbent President Buhari, a northerner himself.

Conclusively, the demand for the National Zoning Committee of PDP to zone the Presidential ticket of PDP to the south is a right step in the right direction.

Written by Tonye Barcanista Inioribo

Quite informative

Nice research. I now understand the fear of those northern power brokers

FCT that leaned PDP in the last elections?

PDP should not make the mistake and falling for the Atiku kawai stunts. His time was in 2019. Since it didn't happen, it's not happening again. The South won't give him their slot. He has not also shown any signs that he will not continue the current supremacy agenda of his tribe when in power. He has never spoken against their terrible actions and capital crimes nationwide or called them to order as with the current ruling overlords pushing the agenda. To me he was a better alternative to PMB, but now, a sensible southerner from any party is a better alternative.

APC or PDP bringing a northerner will see a mass defection and realignment. If they go ahead and rig as usual afterwards, I see great destabilization in the country. This I have seen.

But a southern stooge is not the solution to our problems. The APC cabal will try to push for one if the southern clamour still goes on. A stooge is worse than having another northerner. We need someone with balls to take tough actions to correct the many wrongs done to the South and Nigeria at large by this nefarious administration.

Restructure the country and stop fooling yourself

gbengress1:
Nice research. I now understand the fear of those northern power brokers

Thanks bro... Some power brokers up north know that their trick of always hiding under a nonexistent political north to advance their sectional agenda is DOA.

VTJN:
Restructure the country and stop fooling yourself

We need a President with political will to actualise restructuring

tempest01:
FCT that leaned PDP in the last elections?

PDP should not make the mistake and falling for the Atiku kawai stunts. His time was in 2019. Since it didn't happen, it's not happening again. The South won't give him their slot. He has not also shown any signs that he will not continue the current supremacy agenda of his tribe when in power. He has never spoken against their terrible actions and capital crimes nationwide or called them to order as with the current ruling overlords pushing the agenda. To me he was a better alternative to PMB, but now, a sensible southerner from any party is a better alternative.

APC or PDP bringing a northerner will see a mass defection and realignment. If they go ahead and rig as usual afterwards, I see great destabilization in the country. This I have seen.

But a southern stooge is not the solution to our problems. The APC cabal will try to push for one if the southern clamour still goes on. A stooge is worse than having another northerner. We need someone with balls to take tough actions to correct the many wrongs done to the South and Nigeria at large by this nefarious administration.

Absolutely!!! We don't want any stooge

The North is trying to play mind games with us

A better Nigeria all around is all we want.
A better Nigeria all around is what we shall encounter.
Nigeria will succeed.
God bless Nigeria.

Starboy and Zulum for 2023.

Jibabs2:
Osinbajo or nothing

Our own @[/b] be say : STARBOY & Zulum for 2023.

Osinbajo, The great Man.

Our own @[b] be say : STARBOY and ZULUM all da Way.

Come 2023 BGG,
STARBOY and ZULUM we dey for una.
Whether the evil ones like it or not,
Nigeria will succeed.

Topmaike007:
I like this your combo...

Pls when will APC membership card revalidation exercise end..

I need to collect mine

Our Combo is actually a well selected great Combo to move our nation forward.
That being said,,
Chief Topmaike,
We no too know about this APC revalidation tin o.
We are not actually a card carrying member of any political party in Nigeria.
The only 2 guys we love in Naija politics are our darling Daddy and his amiable Vice.
Now, Zulum has joined the rank.
We only go to the polls on election day to cast our votes for good, honest men that meant well for the nation, no matter the party they are.
And you don't have to be a party member to do that.

But in the past one month, we have noticed how all the top big wigs and non-politicians alike are all joining APC in their various Constituencies, from Governors, to Businesses owners and Entrepreneurs.
We are looking and researching about the good ones among them already.

Serveyouright:

The best for the job so far. If only greedy men in politics will allow this combo to fly.

We sane, good, honest and hardworking Nigerians will do all in our power to make this Combo work.
That is why we all must come together.

Nigeria will be great again in our lifetime

iHart:
I love this man

We Love him too.
Only fraudsters, criminals, thieves and losers in life don't like him obviously .
The same nuisances that do not like sane, good and honest members here.
Two time losers.

God bless our amiable Vice president Prof Yemi Osinbajo.
God bless Nigeria.

Our own @[/b] be say : [b]STARBOY and ZULUM all da Way.

Come 2023 BGG,
STARBOY and ZULUM we dey for una.
Whether the evil ones like it or not,
Nigeria will succeed.

Serveyouright:

The best for the job so far. If only greedy men in politics will allow this combo to fly.

We sane, good, honest and hardworking Nigerians will do all in our power to make this Combo work.
That is why we all must come together.

Nigeria will be great again in our lifetime

PYO : Man of the people.... Sane people we mean.
Sane, honest and hardworking Nigerians.

Mexzy4sho:

one can't deny that this combo would be the best to beat currently in Nigeria.
Manna, you make sense for here.

Now, clap for yasef

Crucialgem:



We share the same view man, God bless you, I just hate the way people go about with always saying negative things when good news comes up about our country Nigeria. Most of you guys are the real problem we have in Nigeria

God bless you too crucial gem
You are truly a rare gem on this forum.

Isn't it obvious??

The hardest and bitter truth is that no Southern candidate can beat the Northern candidate. If South wants to be president they must respect us to our satisfaction for us to vote for them. You can't disrespect me and expect my vote

post=106117900:
[s]Anything that will move our darling nation forward is all we are AFTER @.

Nigeria will work again in our lifetime.
God bless Nigeria.

[/s]

Anything outside a south east presidency 2023 let the north keep rulling ...it's as simple as that

Infact let fulanis keep ruling it would be a win win for igbos

Benue, Kwara, kogi, taraba, and Nassarawa are 5 states that the core north finds difficult to influence....I'm fact these states align more with the south in their voting pattern, so let no one deceive you that the North is United, any smart southern candidate can get majority vote in those states.

If north is that powerful why hasn't any core North candidate won without the support of the south. And south has always won without the support of the states that make up the core north.

likewise a northern candidate will lose in the south.

this northerners are becoming too full and foolish of themselves.

Forget about One North propanga, lets think.
Do you think some sensible Northern populace like gimmicks of their political class?
When they say "Money rules the world" it ain't lie baby, why successful attacks on Christian folks from Southern Nigeria extraction and Northern christians are usually successful, is because of Southern leaders resentment towards the populace of the North, they are always scared of leveraging on the common Northerners availability, rather banking on their Oligarchs, giving them so much power that doesn't exist.

It is easy to sway the Northern populace with cash, and strong hope, make them believe you respect their religion and give them hope, and then money, you will win in the North.
No matter how they hate the Southerners, the admiration is there, they know we can rule better than them, it is just the Northern Elites that thought otherwise, which are not that powerful except opening their door wide for them to eat, that alone give them access to Northern commoners and used them against their advantage.

Two can play the game, is high time our Southern political class use the same method up North, and reduce the Northern elites to our mercy.

2023 is for Southern Nigeria, it is non-negotiable just like the Unity of Nigeraia mantra championed by all politicians.


check my signature

Story...naija wey don cast. To me the write-up looks like "who will be the last straw that will break d camels back"

Anyone still considering voting solely along party lines hasn't seen a terrible economy yet, because it is clear that politicians are without principles & manifestos, hence are only attracted to where they can feed greed. One that should be considered should be young, well-read, exposed & with clear evidence of passed successes in any endeavours. And have the balls to bring down the current cash-cow FG, deliver true federalism, restructuring, security.

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This permutation below will scatter whatever Northern candidate PDP brings.

Osinbajo/Ganduje
Osinbajo/Tambuwal
Osinbajo/Kwankwaso

There's going to be realignments before 2023. Party membership can't stop it. Politicians will decamp and collect ticket. That one is sure. Don't be surprised if you see Osinbajo and Kwankwaso or Ganduje on the same ticket tomorrow.

North Stop fooling. Fools

Good right up

Will you keep shut!

[quote author=Lovenorth post=106117923]M[/q

It is true.

There is nothing like Southern President, say the truth, Southeast should produce the next President if we are honest to ourselves and want justice, equity and fairness in Nigeria


If Yorubas truly want a southern unity, they ought to allow equity, fairness and unity in the south for once by burying their 2023 presidential ambition for Southeast.


Yoruba man, Obasanjo ruled Nigeria from 1999 to 2006.


Another Yoruba man is current vice president since 2015 to end in 2023.


If Yorubas are honest enough, they ought to bury their 2023 presidential agenda as a sacrifice to unite Southern Nigeria, and watch how Igbos will reciprocate this love going forward.



But if Yorubas insist that its all by politics and that Presidency is not given on platter of gold like they always say to taunt and mock Igbos for asking to produce the next President of Nigeria come 2023, then there is nothing like Southern unity or Presidential zoning at all in Nigeria. In that case, Northerners have equal right to produce the next President cos there is no sincerity in the Southern clamor to produce next president if the South isn't rooting for Igbo presidency.

Lol