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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote (628 Views)
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APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by favorite1234: 3:29pm On May 17, 2022 |
APC Convention: How the delegates may vote By Yinusa Duba It is exactly two weeks to the Special National Convention of APC, and there are clear indications that bookmakers may be in for a shocker as Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is increasingly facing strong headwinds in his bid to clinch the Party’s presidential ticket. A zone-by-zone analysis of delegates’ preferences, realignments of APC governors, President Buhari’s behind-the-scene moves and emerging voting patterns indicate that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo will likely emerge winner at the Convention on June 1. Of the 22 or aspirants, only three – Osinbajo, Tinubu and Amaechi – are the serious contenders. The rest came into the race for many reasons, and so I won’t waste time profiling their chances. In fact, I am sure that these unserious ones will step down before the Convention begins. South West In the South West region, Tinubu will take Lagos, his home base, and take a slight lead in Osun. The VP will win Ondo, Oyo, Ekiti and Ogun. The governors of these three states are solidly with the Osinbajo. But Osun is in strong contention by Tinubu and the VP, and so the votes would be almost evenly split between the two. South South While Chibuike Amaechi will take his home state of Rivers, Osinbajo will sweep Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta and Bayelsa. In Bayelsa, Timipreh Sylva’s firm grip on the delegates is the VP’s advantage. Sylva will easily align with President Buhari and vote Osinbajo. In Akwa Ibom, the VP is banking on the supports of bigwigs like former Deputy Governor Nsima Ekere, Senator Udoma Udo Udoma and Senator Ita Enang, among others; while in neighbouring Cross River State, Gov. Ben Ayade is leading the battalion of supporters rooting for the VP. In Delta, Senator Omo Ovie-Agege and Minister of State for Labour, Mr. Festus Keyamo are the driving forces behind the VP. There would be serious contention for Edo State by both the VP and Tinubu. Although former APC National Chairman Adams Oshiomhole may be rooting for Tinubu in Edo, but the statutory delegates are solidly behind the VP. South East The South East delegates are going to the Convention with a sense of grievance. They would have loved to vote for an aspirant from their zone. But in the absence of that, the voting pattern would be disparate. Those from Imo and Ebonyi would be influenced by their governors, while the rest would mostly make their independent decisions. David Umahi and Hope Uzodinma would listen to Buhari’s persuasions and support Osinbajo with their delegates. Delegates from Enugu, Abia and Anambra will support the VP overwhelmingly, but a few would however line up behind Tinubu and Amaechi. Northern States I can confirm that the delegates from the three Zones in the North (NE, NC and NW) will vote in the same pattern because most of the 19 Northern States are APC states whose governors will go along with the President; and we all know that President Buhari is not willing to support Tinubu. Buhari is bent on having his VP succeed him. This is an established fact which has rankled the Tinubu team to no end. But it is what it is. No APC governor from the North will antagonize the President. They respect, adore and revere the old man. Northern governors will support whosoever the President anoint. Although Tinubu will make some good showings in Kano, Zamfara and a few other places, his overall performance in the North will fall behind the VP’s. Amaechi, on the other hand, will give a smattering performance in some places like Katsina. Overall, the VP will score between 70% and 75% of the total delegate votes at the Convention. Duba is an Abuja- based political pollster and analyst
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Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by MikoB: 3:31pm On May 17, 2022 |
Oh lalala! Abi these guys dey copy me nii? Lolz. Anyway,he has a very similar permutation to mine, but just some little differences, I will come up with mine, and it will only have 2 to 3%marginal error. |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by espn(m): 3:35pm On May 17, 2022 |
People can analyse rubbish... 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by jaQad: 3:36pm On May 17, 2022 |
Not Likely. |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by dedonfranco(m): 3:39pm On May 17, 2022 |
Hunger dey.......this your story is too long. Peter Obi is our president. |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Brexxit(m): 3:41pm On May 17, 2022 |
There will be no primaries,GEJ is the sole consensus candidate. A source from the chairman's office revealed this to me. |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Asgard13: 3:41pm On May 17, 2022 |
Apc must give Tinubu ticket Tinubu must be on ballot We even careless the party Must contest Power to the people North 2023 |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Bmaster(m): 3:52pm On May 17, 2022 |
Asgard13:E NO GO BETTER FOR |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Parachoko: 3:53pm On May 17, 2022 |
Useless analysis. On Bola Ahmed Tinubu Mandate I Stand Gidigba 1 Like
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Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by realstars: 3:55pm On May 17, 2022 |
Who ever emage will fail by nigerians, no one is ready for apc this time around. |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Nigerialabalaba: 3:56pm On May 17, 2022 |
According to them, even Fayemi go lose Ekiti to PYO 1 Like
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Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Dannyset(m): 4:05pm On May 17, 2022 |
You said you're a Pollster? No you are absolutely a Po*nster. Just add comedy to your calling and you will be made. Olodo! 1 Like
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Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by Pierohandsome: 4:09pm On May 17, 2022 |
I do not think Osibanjo is PMB's candidate,I think it is Amaechi |
Re: APC Convention: How The Delegates May Vote by drlateef: 4:26pm On May 17, 2022 |
You a big joker!!! Doing a dirty fake job for Oshinbajo. You don’t know anything going, just beating about the bush. One sure mistake you made is that Ondo state is for Tinubu no doubt. I won’t say more than that. 1 Like |
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APC CONVENTION: How The Delegates May Vote For Strong Contenders, Tinubu, Osinba / Buhari Consensus Candidate A Scam Of The 21st Century / The Igbo That Would Win Presidency Would Come From Tinubu Stable
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