Former Anambra State governor Peter Obi is inspiring a powerful, social media-enabled, youth-led political tidal wave that will radically change the contours of the 2023 election.

But APC and PDP operatives, still inebriated with the overconfidence of the size and deep pockets of their parties, are sniggering at the suggestion that Peter Obi’s Labour Party will change the game next year. They comfort themselves with the mantra that there are no polling booths on social media where Peter Obi’s devotees form noisy cyber silos.


Well, there is no opponent more dangerous than an underestimated one. People who are habituated to the politics of the past may dismiss it, but something fundamentally novel is happening. There’s an unstoppably growing corps of fired-up young (and not-so-young) people who are investing their time, energy, and emotions in Peter Obi. We have seen spectacular spikes in PVC registration and an increase in offline political mobilization, all thanks to him.

Three factors appear to be driving this. One, there is mass disillusionment with the quality and character of the presidential candidates of the two major parties. They are the same woefully familiar, recycled, unimaginative, self-interested, careerist politicians who are deeply invested in sustaining the dysfunctions that keep Nigeria in the twilight zone between life and death.

They mouth the same flyblown clichés, can’t articulate any grand visions, are indistinguishable from past politicians, have no commitment to any grand ideals, and are in politics to steal from the public till and dispense favors to cronies.

Peter Obi seems to be different. He comes across as down-to-earth, self-aware, committed to transparency and the demystification of governance, and as someone who invests considerable intellectual energies into thinking about— and offering solutions to— Nigeria’s problems.

I am dubious of the facticity of some of his more self-righteous, messianic claims, and suspect that he sometimes hyperbolizes some of the too-good-to-be-true anecdotes about his time as Anambra State governor in order to gain the applause of his audiences.

As a scholar of rhetorical studies, I know that rhetors can sometimes feel an obligation to not violate the expectations of their captive audiences by telling stories that their audiences want to hear even if this means bending or sexing up the facts a little bit.

Nonetheless, compared to Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi is a breath of fresh air.

The second impetus for the dramatic surge in Obi’s political profile is religious. Many Christians in both the South and the North feel excluded from the presidential tickets of the APC and the PDP. Churches all across Nigeria are drumming up support for Obi in protest.

I think this is legitimate in the interest of representational justice, particularly because Obi isn’t some pastor with a predetermined agenda to advance narrow religious or sectarian causes.

Although Obi is a devout Catholic, he is thoroughly secular and, based on some of his speeches I’ve watched, has a deep understanding of the imperative of separating the sacred and the profane in the business of governance.

The third driver of his popularity is Igbo resentment at their systemic political exclusion. In my April 2, 2022, column titled “Why Nigeria Needs an Igbo President in 2023,” I wrote:

“The Igbo are almost in the same spot that the Yoruba were in in 1998. There is mass resentment among them. Several of them feel emotionally disconnected from Nigeria. And we all know why. Apart from the fact that they have never produced a president or vice president since 1999, Muhammadu Buhari has done an extremely poor job of husbanding Nigeria’s intricate diversity.

“The sense of alienation that a vast swath of Igbo people feel now has made several of them, particularly their youth, susceptible to the murderous wiles of the mentally and emotionally disturbed mountebank called Nnamdi Kanu.”

Some of the secessionist oxygen that sustained Biafra agitation has now been redirected to Peter Obi, and Nnamdi Kanu has now been pushed on the backburner. While some people have put a negative spin to this, I think it is a golden opportunity. It shows that an Igbo presidency will solve the secessionist agitations and violence in the Southeast. For me, that’s a worthwhile reward for having a president who is Igbo.

Incidentally, in the April 2 column I referred to earlier, Peter Obi was one of two Igbo people I recommended as candidates for the presidency. The other was Kingsley Moghalu who sadly lost the primary election of his party.

I wrote: “The second is Peter Obi. In a March 25, 2022, article titled ‘Peter Obi: Applying to Be Driver of a Knocked-Out Car,’ I mentioned that listening to his speeches has captured my imagination. He appears to have a handle on Nigeria’s problems, and what I’ve read of his record as governor of Anambra State inspires some confidence that he isn’t just a talker. I can’t speak to his cosmopolitanism and commitment to seeing all of Nigeria as his constituency. That’s up to voters to find out.”

If Obi’s political momentum holds steady until February next year and the election is free and fair, I predict that he will cause a runoff. If he leads with the youth, Igbo, and Christian votes (I know there’s an overlap in some categories), he will upset both the APC and the PDP to the point that none of them can win in the first round of the presidential election.

If he doesn’t win or qualify to participate in the runoff, whoever he supports will be the winner. So, an intelligent political party won’t antagonize him or his supporters just yet.

But there are dangers for Obi, though, should he somehow defeat the structural impediments on his way to become president. First, his devotees call themselves “Obidients” and demand “Obidience” to him. That’s horrible. They would be worse than Buhari’s BMC trolls.

What is needed in democracy is critical citizenship, not “obidience.” “Obidience” in democracy suggests a surrender of one’s critical faculty, which is what precisely what Buharism is. It’s the death knell of democracy.

Obi’s rise to political stardom is propelled by anger at the political establishment. That’s the literal definition of populism. Populism instrumentalizes anger for politics without being able to transform the lives of the angry in any meaningful way.

Obi’s devotees imagine him to embody the solutions to Nigeria’s problems and expect him to wave the magic wand and make them disappear. As he himself admitted in a previous public appearance, Nigeria’s problems are structural and systemic and can’t be resolved with a mere change of the personnel in the corridors of power.

If his presidency violates the expectations of his devotees, they will turn against him. In other words, he is riding the tiger of populism, and it will devour him when he dismounts from it.

A Pastor’s Wish for Buhari’s Murder?

One Pastor Olugbemiga Olowosoyo who prophesied that Yemi Osinbajo would win the last APC presidential primary (in which he came a distant third) has insisted that Osinbajo will still be president, according to TheCable of June 16.

“It is in being vice-president that you will become president,” he said. “If you are not Osinbajo you will not understand what I said. But if you are close to Osinbajo, tell him that I said so. Let him go and be vice-president to Buhari. The era of Buhari is ending very soon.”

What does this mean? That Buhari will be murdered, poisoned, or die a natural death so that Osinbajo will take over power from him? Recall that Osinbajo reportedly said a loud “Amen!” in his hometown of Ikenne in Ogun State when an RCCG pastor prayed that Buhari should die in London so that Osinbajo will become president.

Of course, it’s unlikely that anyone can murder or poison Buhari, but why are some of these so-called men of God this reckless and irresponsible in their utterances?

Let Buhari complete what remains of his wasted presidential tenure and leave Nigeria to sort itself out.


https://www.farooqkperogi.com/2022/06/the-peter-obi-tsunami-apc-and-pdp-are.html?fbclid=IwAR3dYSh7a2FxYduIKhivf7lb8myz5NlqiaV3Kr3IaHTRfo5hDZ5L62hA_bQ

As a Yoruba guy who has spent over 25years in the North. I would say Peter Obi has the best chance of winning the 2023 elections if he plays it well. Atiku's biggest roadblock is his tribe, especially among Christians in the north who have suffered tremendously under Buhari a Fulani nepotistic president. Secondly, Tinubu running a Muslim Muslim ticket would cause a large number of Christians in the North and SW to find solace in Obi. Obi should focus on converting the votes of Christians in the North who I believe is over 40% of the population of the total north. The fact there are no large northern Christian tribes like the Hausa/Fulani does not mean they are a minority as assumed.

Who read this novel!

APC and PDP can never be worried about the Orphanage called Labour Party. Tsunami you stated?


Hello! Peter Obi can only be president online. If you gave reality squarely without emotions, you should know that even DJ Cuppy’s dogs would win Peter Obi in a national election.

How can you be Akagum and still be aspiring to be a leader!

Peter Obi does not know his tanks and people are deceiving him!

PDP in the spirit of fair play and sportsmanship is not underrating the candidacy of Peter Obi or any other validly elected Presidential candidates.

They will see!
They think it's business as usual.
#MovementMPO!!!

https://youtube.com/shorts/APM-DhT3l0s?feature=share

SEUNMSG WILL NOT LIKE THIS NEWS

Nobody is underrating Obi

But like he said .. he’s supporters are human overrating Obi

Na his followers and their toxicity will eat him live before others will deal with his bones

Power to the people
Atiku Okowa

Atleast this will give IPOB space to massage their bread ego for a while

But we know kperogi and his family in Nigeria will never vote an Obi

Ndi mmadu ajoka ...

Na lie oo. APC and PDP are not underrating labour party oo. If they are underrated, why would they be paying inline influencers to stack only Peter Obi? Is Peter Obi the only candidate?

The youths has come of age. We want to work and be working like other youths in advanced country. We are not cursed. Never will our patrimony be squandered again. OBI 2023

Kingspin:
Wait for the author's second reply

He dey nairaland??

Frigga13:
Nobody is underrating Obi

But like he said .. he’s supporters are human overrating Obi

Na his followers and their toxicity will eat him live before others will deal with his bones

Power to the people
Atiku Okowa

Atleast this will give IPOB space to massage their bread ego for a while

But we know kperogi and his family in Nigeria will never vote an Obi

Ndi mmadu ajoka ...

I'm this topic now ...no Obi supporters has attacked anyone ...yet two attacks minimum gave been lunched at them ...when they reply you start complaining

Igbochief001:

I'm this topic now ...no Obi supporters has attacked anyone ...yet two attacks minimum gave been lunched at them ...when they reply you start complaining

A sleeping mad man is still a mad man

SARSCoV2:
Who read this novel!

APC and PDP can never be worried about the Orphanage called Labour Party. Tsunami you stated?


Hello! Peter Obi can only be president online. If you gave reality squarely without emotions, you should know that even DJ Cuppy’s dogs would win Peter Obi in a national election.

How can you be Akagum and still be aspiring to be a leader!

Peter Obi does not know his tanks and people are deceiving him!

wailer don get belle....shakara don end oo

food has dropped from your family table..

No more shishi for you.

hahahahahaha....Corrupt party supporters..(CPS)

crazy fella who now believes PDP is changed and hailing them

Frigga13:


A sleeping mad man is still a mad man

and an empty barrel like you..still makes the loudest noise...

Ndi south south..hehehehehe

We go shock dem

Frigga13:
Nobody is underrating Obi

But like he said .. he’s supporters are human overrating Obi

Na his followers and their toxicity will eat him live before others will deal with his bones

Power to the people
Atiku Okowa

Atleast this will give IPOB space to massage their bread ego for a while

But we know kperogi and his family in Nigeria will never vote an Obi

Ndi mmadu ajoka ...

If you understand how election upset works you won't say this. This played out in the US 2016 elections, which their biggest pundits never assumed could happen. He should pick a Muslim from the NC as his VP, not necessarily Hausa/Fulani because I am 100% sure he will not get any substantial vote from the core north, he should not bank on them.

All I have to say is that Obi should take his message to the north. Appear in talkshows and enlighten the general public. Get Hausa interpreters to explain your plans for Nigeria before the official campaigns start. Travel to rural areas across the country (both north and south) to understand the plights of the people.

Obi is a grassroots man and should be seen to do that. The only person who will hear his message and what he has done in the past and not like him is someone with deep-rooted religious or tribal sentiments. Whipping up religious and tribal sentiments is the strategy APC and PDP have used to keep us where we are today - a shithole country.

A silent revolution is sweeping the two dead parties off the circuit...

Anything to make ipob bingos and obi's cretins happy is welcomed but we no wan hear biafla or death when their useless tiny god looses ooh..... I still stand gidigba on Tinubu's mandate

I already predicted a run-off.I am tipping Peter Obi and Atiku to go into run-off in next year's presidential elections

Hmmm

doxtun:


If you understand how election upset works you won't say this. This played out in the US 2016 elections, which their biggest pundits never assumed could happen. He should pick a Muslim from the NC as his VP, not necessarily Hausa/Fulani because I am 100% sure he will not get any substantial vote from the core north, he should not bank on them.

This is Nigeria.. wake up

Well written.

Christians from the SW will give Obi a huge bloc vote, especially with Tinubu's M-M ticket. While he is not a fanatic like the guys up north, as a Christian in the SW I still believe he should be courageous enough to pick a Christian VP from the North. Nigeria is not an Islamic Country.

This analysis by Kperogi is very correct. i am not an ibo man though a Southerner based in kaduna. I must tell you that every political talk in every corner is about Obi. The fillings is high and the same. From Barnawa to television, from sabo tasha to Narayi, from kakuri to kamazau, especially Christians dominated area and local government, like in Kachia, jemma, kagoro, Kafanchan, kwoi, sanga etc are having the same fillings. Kaduna is very religious , & 40% of Christian populace may go fo obi. Although some are undecided yet. As a church guy i can tell you that churches in the North aren't happy with present politics been played by the two major political party..
I am not campaigning for obi but Five (5) eligible voters in my house including me are for him.. It is the wishes and prayers of northern Christians for a Christian to be the president of Nigeria come 2023.

EMMNIG:
This analysis by Kperogi is very correct. i am not an ibo man though a Southerner based in kaduna. I must tell you that every political talk in every corner is about Obi. The fillings is high and the same. From Barnawa to television, from sabo tasha to Narayi, from kakuri to kamazau, especially Christians dominated area and local government, like in Kachia, jemma, kagoro, Kafanchan, kwoi, sanga etc are having the same fillings. Kaduna is very religious , & 40% of Christian populace may go fo obi. Although some are undecided yet. As a church guy i can tell you that churches in the North aren't happy with present politics been played by the two major political party..
I am not campaigning for obi but Five (5) eligible voters in my house including me are for him.. It is the wishes and prayers of northern Christians for a Christian to be the president of Nigeria come 2023.

I have spoken with a lot of people in Kaduna and Jos. They are all for Obi. These were the same people who voted for Buhari in 2015 thinking he was a reformer because a pastor was his VP. Tinubu's only crime would be the M-M ticket while Atiku being Fulani is his problem.

Frigga13:
Nobody is underrating Obi

But like he said .. he’s supporters are human overrating Obi

Na his followers and their toxicity will eat him live before others will deal with his bones

Power to the people
Atiku Okowa

Atleast this will give IPOB space to massage their bread ego for a while

But we know kperogi and his family in Nigeria will never vote an Obi

Ndi mmadu ajoka ...

your campaign method is very funny to me seriously, the more you and Reno do this,the more you guy's de market Atiku seriously, Atikus major supporters are down south, same with obi,in your quest to promote Atiku candidacy down south, don't de market him .

Most of us who do not see obi winning the election, will definitely vote for Atiku, if people from other tribes are promoting obi ,why do you think igboman should not?

While he should campaign in the north. His energy Should be more in his strongholds of SE/SS, securing block votes from this regions should be his priority.
He should also focus on SW, NC and Christian dominated areas of NE & NW.
Convincing the core north will be a difficult or even impossible task, why waste energy and resources on a fruitless adventure.?

Frigga13:


A sleeping mad man is still a mad man

Like obi said live let's live politics without bitterness