Following media reports that NNPP and LP's merger has hit the wall, I think it is time to reflect on the relative chance of both candidates in the forthcoming polls. I do not want to go into analysis of RMK and PO's strength but I want to boldly make two predictions:

1. Both of them of will gallantly lose at the polls;
2. We will know the electoral value of both candidates - how much votes each is guaranteed to pull.

The implication is quite interesting in my opinion. This is the first time PO (but not RMK) will be appearing on the ballot as a presidential candidate. For the first time, we will know how many votes he can inspire on the strength of his name. This will tip the balance in his favour in any future merger as he can always claim the number of votes he is guaranteed at the polls. 2019 election bundled his and Atiku's votes and so we cannot say how strong he is. As my people will say, 2023 will reveal that which is pregnant.

Just less than 9 months to go, it is quite interesting to see how things will pan out.