It occurred to me to write this thread after seeing Babachir Lawal and Yakubu Dogara’s visit to Wike. Especially when you consider the fact that it’s now public knowledge that those two men are fiercely opposed to Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Hitherto, Tinubu and APC supporters had hoped they’d latch onto Wike’s grievances against PDP to lure him to work for Tinubu but those who understand the politics of the Southsouth and are in the know of the pulse of Southsouth people knew from the very start that it’s practically impossible for Wike to work for APC; nay Tinubu.

Some of the reasons why I think it’s unlikely for Wike to work for Tinubu are, but not limited to:

1) Tinubu’s Treatment of Jonathan, a Southsouth son

The entire country need not be told of how Tinubu was among the fiercest opposers of Goodluck Jonathan’s administration.

First, Tinubu ensured that Mulikat Akande from Oyo State, did not become speaker of the House of Representatives by instructing ACN Reps to throw their weight behind a northerner, Tambuwal. Tambuwal ended up becoming speaker and Tinubu surreptitiously turned around and led the group of Yoruba Leaders who constantly accused Jonathan of excluding Southwest from his govt.

Second, when Jonathan decided it was time for the cankerworm called subsidy to go in January 2012 (a noble decision that would have saved Nigeria of its current subsidy crisis), Tinubu influenced a protest that lasted almost a week at Ojota Square in Lagos calling for the return of subsidy. Jonathan later succumbed and Nigeria lost.

In 2013, Tinubu culminated his opposition to Jonathan by going into alliance with Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigerians Peoples Party (ANPP), some part of APGA and some part of PDP to float the All Progressive Congress party (APC) which ended up defeating PDP at the general elections. But it was not the alliance that was the problem, it was how Tinubu and his lackeys went about campaign of calumny against Jonathan that is most insulting. They called him unprintable names and carried mock coffins with Jonathan’s pictures. In the end, Jonathan lost.

Can you say the people of Southsouth forgiven Tinubu for those actions?

(2) Patience Jonathan and her Husband are Wike’s Benefactors

It is sometimes quipped that Patience Jonathan is the Politician amongst the duo of Mr and Mrs Jonathan. But can we disprove that? Most people say that some of the problems Jonathan had while in power was from how bossy his wife was to some influential politicians in power then, with Amaechi being the most prominent which causes Amaechi’s defection to APC and teaming up with Tinubu to install Buhari.

However, Amaechi could not succeed installing his preferred candidate, Dakuku Peterside, in Rivers as Wike bulldozed his way to Rivers Governorship.

But Wike didn’t do it alone, he had help. The then Commissioner of Police in Rivers, Mbu, practically became Wike’s errand boy; frustrating Amaechi and his candidate. So, in essence, Wike owes his first victory as governor of Rivers to the Jonathans who cleared the road for him.

Now, would Wike choose to reward the man who caused the failure of his benefactors? Probably not.

(3) The General Impulse of Rivers and Southsouth People

By this I mean, what is the impulse and feelings of Rivers in particular and Southsouth in general towards APC?

I know you would say Bayelsans voted APC in their last guber election, but was it really APC they were voting for or they were merely casting protest votes against PDP in favour of David Lyon of APC?

I say this because most Bayelsans wanted Timi Alaibe to succeed Seriake Dickson. Alaibe was also Jonathan and Wike’s choice. But Dickson, like every other sitting governor, didn’t want to handover power to somewhere he can’t control which made him through his weight behind Duoye Diri instead. So when Timi Alaibe lost the PDP ticket, Bayelsans, Jonathan and Wike got infuriated and shifted from PDP. When David Lyon, a popular candidate due to his philanthropy, got the APC ticket, the choice was easy for Bayelsans who were already angry at Dickson and his unpopular and uninspiring candidate. That was how APC won Bayelsa.

The other APC governor in the Southsouth, Governor Ben Ayade of Cross River, defected from PDP months back. Not that he was elected on the platform of APC.

All these background study is to logically demonstrate to you that APC does not have good standing in the Southsouth in general and Rivers state in particular.

So, how likely is it that Wike would want to swim against the tide and support a candidate that is not wanted by his people? I know you might want to argue that what drives politicians is interest, but how can that interest come to fruition if you don’t have the people?

It is, therefore, my estimation that Wike cannot swim against the tide by choosing to work for a man and party not popular amongst his people as doing so might set him on the path to political oblivion. Or what is a big masquerade without the cheerleaders?

(4) Muslim-Muslim Ticket

I don’t think I’ve been able to get Wike’s exact denomination but I think he’s Anglican (correct me if I’m wrong).

Now, how can Wike convince Rivers people who are 99.99999% Christians to vote for a Muslim-Muslim ticket?

What will Wike tell his pastor is his driving force after the Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, has taken a position against the ticket?

So, you see, it will be a tough job.

(5) What is in it for Him

Interest drive politicians, whether egotistic or altruistic. So, if Wike decides to work for Tinubu, what is in it for him?

Is it ministerial position? He has been a minister; except you offer him something juicy.

Is it governorship? He has served out his constitutionally allowed two terms and can no longer be governor except the constitution changes. Or is it about his candidate? Wike can deliver his candidate without anybody’s help.

So, what is in it for Wike if he works for Tinubu?

6) Labour Party Is An Uncharted Territory

Another reason I think Wike would rather defect to Labour Party than APC is because the former is an uncharted territory yearning for leadership; both in Rivers in particular and Southsouth in general.

With Labour Party already popular with the masses, all Wike needs to do is to provide leadership and fulcrum for the party. He wouldn’t even need to spend much money in setting up the structure of the party. And I assure you that Wike will remain ever popular and relevant and even become the biggest shot caller in Labour Party from southern Nigeria.

This is what he can’t have in APC with men like Amaechi and others in the party.

Conclusion

I did not intend for this piece to be this long but it was necessary that all my position is logically buttressed and justified so you can better understand and have a clearer grasp of my point.

Having said that, it is in my view that only two choices are available to Wike:-

First, swallow his pride and place the interest of PDP above his ego and work for Atiku’s victory

Or

Throw his weight behind Peter Obi of Labour Party to ensure the presidency comes back to south and by so doing ingratiate himself to the Igbos whose sensibilities his actions and utterances in the past, insulted. Wike has more to gain being part of the larger Igbo family than extricating himself from it.

Penguin is a bird of reason.


Lalasticlala
Mynd44

Never say never in politics

Interesting

It's not rocket science

Wike is the first governor to carry his christian togga with his full chest

He would be insanity to be going to tinubu when all Christian's and Muslims are smoking the tinubu like rabbit for muslim Muslim ticket

It would be insane for a man that cries standing for justice to do so

It would be political sucide to his own carrier when amaechi is already crying that his own people are angry with apc

Because WIKE get pride.
He is not like FFK or other political prostitutes/sodomizts from the EAST or WEST.

As passionately as Wike stayed on in PDP and worked for the Southern presidency agitation, it will be difficult to SELL OUT by working for Tinubu or APC.

Besides, Wike does not want to suffer the fate of political outcasts like Amaechi, exiled from his own state and hiding in Abuja like a coward.

Wike will remain in PDP because he is a stakeholder in PDP, not a political orphan.

I have never for once thought about it being possible.

What will Wike tell the urbane people of ND as his reason for asking him to vote for a very old man that can no longer hold it together? Okowa will even give him a run for his money if he dares.

It's easier for him to support Peter Obi than the old Bishop.

Politics is about personal interest. If Wike defected to APC ,he will be relegated politically like N-PDP that defected to APC in 2014

KanwuliaExtra:
Because WIKE get pride.
He is not like FFK or other political prostitutes/sodomizts from the EAST or WEST.

BTW, Ffk has been so quiet. Any one seen him lately?
The Muslim brotherhood overawed him

Gandollar:
BTW, Ffk has been so quiet. Any one seen him lately?
The Muslim brotherhood overawed him

FFK is confused right now. Knowing he made the biggest mistake of his miserable life!
Typical political coward!

He will don join LP.

Shameless thing with no principles. OBj described him perfectly!

Work for who please?

KanwuliaExtra:


FFK is confused right now. Knowing he made the biggest mistake of his miserable life!
Typical political coward!

He will don join LP.

He will don join LP? I don't understand.

If he had remained in PDP, at least Atiku would have found a willing tool for his dirty fights, and in return provide Femi with enough chow.

By now, FFK would written Wike out of existence on Facebook for acting like a spoilt brat.

Again, I think Ffk joined APC because then, he was too sure APC would scheme Tinubu out of the primaries. He went there to work for his northern friends.

Hmmnn, when the chips are down.....

Gandollar:
He will don join LP? I don't understand.

If he had remained in PDP, at least Atiku would have found a willing tool for his dirty fights, and in return provide Femi with enough chow.

By now, FFK would written Wike out of existence on Facebook for acting like a spoilt brat.

Again, I think Ffk joined APC because then, he was too sure APC would scheme Tinubu out of the primaries. He went there to work for his northern friends.

He does not even have a voice APC.
What appeal does APC have? None.
Glad I was not proved wrong.

Nigerians have rejected APC like CANCER.
Change ko!

Can’t wait for campaign to start. Many will be STONED gaaaaaan.

What is in for him? He wan become presido

I no wan dey hin shoe at the moment

Wike Na man wey get sense, e know sey Labourers no fit win, hence e for don defect go their camp....
He defect, dem win, na after 16years(16+59 = 75years) before hin go be the party flag bearer
He defect, dem loose, na game over for hin political career...

Wike remains in pdp but stays neutral, pdp wins without wike's support, na relegation things for am, okowa fit wan reason presido after atiku, hin teeth go don carry weight by then.
He throws his support and dem win, na thug of war after 8years (8+59 =67years of age) of atiku..
And if pdp loose after hin support, na game over for hin political career...

Best option be like no option now, we can say he has nothing to gain nor loose...
E no even get future for apc sef, coz baba gats wait for 16years before hin go see chance lobby for space...
Atiku snatch hin tickets, he can only help apc do the dirty job inside pdp and help them win, atleast the revenge go sweet am

KillSars:
What is in for him? He wan become presido

I no wan dey hin shoe at the moment

Wike Na man wey get sense, e know sey Labourers no fit win, hence e for don defect go their camp....
He defect, dem win, na after 16years(16+59 = 75years) before hin go be the party flag bearer
He defect, dem loose, na game over for hin political career...

Wike remains in pdp but stays neutral, pdp wins without wike's support, na relegation things for am, okowa fit wan reason presido after atiku, hin teeth go don carry weight by then.
He throws his support and dem win, na thug of war after 8years (8+59 =67years of age) of atiku..
And if pdp loose after hin support, na game over for hin political career...

Best option be like no option now, we can say he has nothing to gain nor loose...
E no even get future for apc sef, coz baba gats wait for 16years before hin go see chance lobby for space...
Atiku snatch hin tickets, he can only help apc do the dirty job inside pdp and help them win, atleast the revenge go sweet am

Lol

A very funny but practical analysis.

His best chance is to swallow his pride and support Atiku and hope he wins so he can stand another chance in 8 years. But then the northerners who made sure Wike didn’t get the PDP ticket nor get picked as running mate will ensure he loses the ticket. Like you said, by then Okowa’s teeth must have gotten higher stature and the north trusts him more.

Now, supporting either of Peter Obi or Tinubu would elongate his waiting time to 16 years by which time he would be considered too old for presidency at 75.

Wike is in a fix.

Truthisunique2:
It's not rocket science

Wike is the first governor to carry his christian togga with his full chest

He would be insanity to be going to tinubu when all Christian's and Muslims are smoking the tinubu like rabbit for muslim Muslim ticket

It would be insane for a man that cries standing for justice to do so

It would be political sucide to his own carrier when amaechi is already crying that his own people are angry with apc

I hear Wike and his men are currently in a closed door meeting.

Let’s see what they will come out to say.

God1000:
Never say never in politics

The snail will “Never” kill the Lion.

You see? No statement is universally valid and incontrovertible.

Mynd44