The KKK states (Kano-Kaduna-Katsina) that gave Buhari upto 3 million votes in 2019 are going to be a problem for any of the presidential aspirants hoping on taking Buhari’s block votes. Mind you, they’ve all been giving Buhari block votes since 2002, when Buhari was first on the ballot.

In Kano:
NNPP Kwakwanso is very strong there, Shakarau a former governor too just defected to PDP, then of course Ganduje who’s the incumbent governor, an APC guy. This means that Kano block votes will be heavily divided by the 3 political juggernauts! All with their loyalists!

In Kaduna, their governor El Rufai has successfully divided the state along ethnic and religious lines with his insensitive Muslim Muslim ticket. Fulani herdsmen have killed lots of Southern Kaduna folks, also most of El Rufai’s project are in the Northern part.
To make matters juicier, Obi’s VP, Ahmed Datti is from Southern Kaduna. He might not be much of a political juggernaut, but the message of hope he brings to Kaduna residents who have been killed in numbers by herdsmen, is easily assimilated.
Obi is expected to perform well here. (Remember that just last 2weeks, El Rufai canceled a one million march in support for Obi). He’s getting the message clearly day by day!

In Katsina,
Buhari’s own state. If memory serves us right, we can recall that Bandits are holding some LGAs hostage. It’s quite uncertain whether the ballot is going to reach those places under duress. Plus political apathy that might hit the locals over the failure of their own son, thereby not wasting their time voting.
Buhari too failed woefully performance-wise. PDP might perform better here because of the northern sentiment towards wanting to keep the power up north by all means. APC will still win the state shaa, so far Buhari is still alive. But on a very wide basis, I doubt.
NNPP Kwakwanso might get reasonable votes from there too, after all he’s a northerner and Muslim like them.

I might be wrong, but I kinda believe the above scenario might pan out.
Last last, I’m not sure any of the 4 major contestants will get more than 400k-450k votes in any of the 3 states! Lala, front page

Gbagam. Absolutely right! Especially with the new electoral law.

Seriously ooo

Exactly why it's getting clearer to me that Peter Obi stands a good chance. If he clears the SE and SS, and puts up a good performance in the NC and pockets of SW, while the PDP, NNPP, and APC cancel themselves out in the NE / NW, then the hitherto unthinkable might happen.

Interesting analysis. Meanwhile some people are sitting on rocking chair, smoking shisha, shouting emilokan every 30 mins, oblivious of the reality on ground. That useless Reno, a modafuka that he is, keeps travelling around the world, looking for good spots to do Harass Buhari out of X country. Insensitive to details too. The 2023 election results will be a shock to everyone. A new order is coming

Delusions

Well we have seen this syndrome before .

Like when they said Israel, Trump , NATO and the Pope himself will come and fight for Biafra.