Moscow is flipping the bloc's script by moving to absorb Kiev's lost lands, thus switching the fight to its own turf


By infusing tens of billions of dollars’ worth of military aid into Ukraine, NATO produced a “game-changing” dynamic designed to throw Russia off balance. By undertaking the referendums in Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, and Lugansk, Russia changed the game altogether.

The ancient Greeks spoke of lemma as representing a logical premise, a matter taken for granted. This contrasted with a dilemma, or “dual premise”, where one would be presented with an either/or proposition. The Romans furthered this notion, referring to a “double premise” as argumentum cornutum, of the “horned argument,” because by answering one argument, an individual would be impaled by the logic of the second. Thus are the ancient roots of the modern idiom, “on the horns of a dilemma.”

This is the ultimate objective of maneuver warfare, for example: to position your forces in such a manner as to present the enemy with no good option – should they react to one pressing threat, they would find themselves overwhelmed by the other.

The Russian military operation that has been underway in Ukraine for more than seven months now has provided ample examples of the military forces of both sides being confronted with a situation that compelled them to alter their preferred course of action; the Russian “diversion” against Kiev early on in the SMO prevented the Ukrainians from reinforcing their forces in eastern Ukraine, and the recently concluded Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkov compelled a hasty Russian withdrawal from a significant swath of previously occupied Ukrainian territory.

Both examples cited presented one side with a lemma, or a single problem, which needed to be addressed. But neither were able to put their opponent “on the horns of a dilemma,” forcing a response which would result in impalement regardless of the option chosen. The reason for this is simple – very rarely will competent military commanders allow themselves to be presented with a military problem for which there is no viable response. War, it seems, is hard work, and dilemmas don’t fall from trees.

Or do they? Ever since Boris Johnston flew to Kiev in April to convince Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to pull out of peace talks then ongoing with Russia in the Turkish city of Istanbul, NATO has embarked on a program designed to provide Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars in military and financial assistance, including the transfer of modern heavy weapons and the use of facilities on Western soil where tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops could be trained and organized without fear of Russian intervention.

The purpose behind the NATO infusion of weaponry into Ukraine was straightforward – to empower Ukraine to not only lengthen the conflict, but also to undertake offensive military operations designed to evict Russia from what Kiev and its backers consider occupied Ukrainian territory, including the Donbass and Crimea. The counteroffensive in Kharkov in early September underscored the serious consequences of NATO’s actions – even though, given the massive loss of life and material suffered by the attacking Ukrainian forces, made the Kharkov victory Pyrrhic in nature, it was a Ukrainian victory, and one which compelled a Russian retreat.

By transforming the Ukrainian army into a NATO army which was manned by Ukrainians, the US-led bloc had, in fact, changed the nature of the game from a straightforward Russia-versus-Ukraine “special military operation” into a “Russia-versus-the collective West” struggle where the military resources originally allocated by Moscow to the fight were now insufficient to the task.
Advantage, Ukraine/NATO.

Russia, however, was not taking the game-changing actions of NATO standing still. Responding to the new reality on the ground in Ukraine, Russian President Vadimir Putin opted not to simply up the ante in this new NATO-driven game of increasing military power but change the game altogether. Not only did he order the partial mobilization of some 300,000 Russian reservists to reinforce the troops currently committed to the SMO, Putin also approved referendums in the four territories where Russian forces are presently fighting – Kherson and Zaporozhye (formerly occupied Ukrainian regions), and Donetsk and Lugansk (former regions of Ukraine, de-facto independent since 2014). These referendums asked the citizens of these four territories one simple question—do you wish to become part of Russia?

After five days of voting, the results from all four territories were clear—by an overwhelming majority, the participants in the referendums approved the proposition. Shortly thereafter, they were incorporated into the Russian Federation. What was once Ukraine has now become Mother Russia.

Russia didn’t just change the rules of the game – it changed the game itself. Instead of Ukrainian forces fighting Russian forces on the territory of Ukraine, any future combat carried out by Ukraine against Russian forces with represent an attack on the Russian homeland itself.

Where does this leave NATO? The bloc's leadership has made it clear from day one that it is not seeking direct confrontation with Russia. While its members have poured in tens of billions of dollars of material into Ukraine to help reconstitute its military, and provided critical logistics, intelligence, and communications support to Ukraine, it has repeatedly and insistently stated that it has no desire to fight a war with Russia directly and has made it clear that it would rather have the Ukrainians serve as a de facto NATO proxy in resisting Moscow.

NATO has gone “all in” both economically and politically when it comes to supporting Ukraine, to the extent that some of its members, having stripped their respective military structures of equipment and material, have nothing left to give. Despite this, European political and economic elites continue to articulate their strong support for Ukraine going forward.

This support, however, was predicated on the fundamental assumption that by providing Ukraine with this massive level of support, NATO would not get directly involved in a conflict with Moscow. But Russia, by transforming the battleground from one being fought on Ukrainian soil to one where it's now defending its own land, has flipped the script.

NATO, having overcommitted to Ukraine, now finds itself “on the horns of a dilemma” – if it continues to provide massive material and financial support to Ukraine, it will, in effect, become a direct party to the conflict, something no one in the bloc wants. However, if it backs away from supporting Ukraine, the various Western political leaders and institutions which have made support for Kiev a sacred obligation will be seen as going back on their word.

How NATO opts to proceed has yet to be manifest, but indications are that it will not be in a manner which continues to double down on supporting Ukraine no matter what. Secretary General Stoltenberg’s tepid speech condemning Russia while showing no enthusiasm for Zelensky’s “accelerated application” for membership is indicative of the less-than-resolute nature of the its support for Kiev.

NATO now will find its role diminished by the consequences of the Russian mobilization and referendums. Years from now, when the history of the conflict is finally written, the decision by President Putin to simultaneously mobilize the Russian reserves while absorbing the territory of southern and eastern Ukraine into the Russian Federation will serve as one of the premier modern-history examples of putting and adversary “on the horns of a dilemma.” The effective neutering of NATO by this action will more than likely be seen as a turning point in the conflict, one which sealed the fate of Ukraine in the face of an inevitable Russian victory.

-RT

Annexing part of Ukraine was not pre-planned. It was done when putin was faced with humiliating defeat after Ukraine's brutal counter-offensives. If NATO is only funding Ukraine and that sent putin to tap into his reservists, what will happen when NATO directly confront Russia?


Russia's economy is crumbling, Russian citizens are fleeing, there are protests everywhere in russia, Russia is becoming a pariah.


Annexing territory in Ukraine is not game changer, it's a regretable mistake that will pull Russia down.


quote me after the fall of Russia.

Article from Russia's state owned media.


Russia has already lost this war and its status as a regional power in central Asia

Putin just bleeped the West over this week. They are still in shock.

VeryWickedGoat:
Putin just bleeped the West over this week. They are still in shock.

Putin feels is on top of the world

ObamaMessi:
Annexing part of Ukraine was not pre-planned. It was done when putin was faced with humiliating defeat after Ukraine's brutal counter-offensives. If NATO is only funding Ukraine and that sent putin to tap into his reservists, what will happen when NATO directly confront Russia?


Russia's economy is crumbling, Russian citizens are fleeing, there are protests
everywhere in russia, Russia is becoming a pariah.


Annexing terotory in Ukraine is not game changer, it's a regretable mistake that will pull Russia down.


quote me after the fall of Russia.

You know nothing. It’s obvious you Started following Ukraine/ Russia’s conflict this yer or late last year. You weren’t conversant when Russia annexed Crimea. Read and dig more before you come online and comment

VeryWickedGoat:
Putin just bleeped the West over this week. They are still in shock.

Go back to romance section...you know nothing about international politics.

ladiguy:


You know nothing. It’s obvious you Started following Ukraine/ Russia’s conflict this yer or late last year. You weren’t conversant when Russia annexed Crimea. Read and dig more before you come online and comment

Putin ordered the annexation of Crimea in 2014 after the pro-Kremlin then leader of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych was ousted. According to him, this was to protect Russians from far-right extremists. This year he invaded Ukraine with the excuse of demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine and annexing part of Ukraine wasn't in the "supposed" original plan.

ObamaMessi:
Annexing part of Ukraine was not pre-planned. It was done when putin was faced with humiliating defeat after Ukraine's brutal counter-offensives. If NATO is only funding Ukraine and that sent putin to tap into his reservists, what will happen when NATO directly confront Russia?


Russia's economy is crumbling, Russian citizens are fleeing, there are protests everywhere in russia, Russia is becoming a pariah.


Annexing terotory in Ukraine is not game changer, it's a regretable mistake that will pull Russia down.


quote me after the fall of Russia.

I don't get it Russia will not engage in a conventional war with NATO

They will lose

It will go nuclear quickly

ObamaMessi:
Annexing part of Ukraine was not pre-planned. It was done when putin was faced with humiliating defeat after Ukraine's brutal counter-offensives. If NATO is only funding Ukraine and that sent putin to tap into his reservists, what will happen when NATO directly confront Russia?


Russia's economy is crumbling, Russian citizens are fleeing, there are protests everywhere in russia, Russia is becoming a pariah.


Annexing terotory in Ukraine is not game changer, it's a regretable mistake that will pull Russia down.


quote me after the fall of Russia.

compair protest in Russia to other European countries
Europe (France) is losing in Africa while Russia is gaining
Russia has opened the door for every nation to talk to USA anyhow, yesterday Nicaragua just suspend US ambassador
And every nations are now converting there dollar reserve to yen
Iran is also turning back to Iran nuclear deal with America, what do think it cause it

Russia has changed the world

ken6488:
I don't get it Russia will not engage in a conventional war with NATO

They will lose

It will go nuclear quickly

USA also has nuclear. Putin will not go nuclear, he was just bluffing. Why go nuclear or threaten to go nuclear that will leave everyone a loser if not that the conventional war is not favouring. You all should stop making it sound like only Russia possess nuclear arsenal.

ObamaMessi:
Go back to romance section...[s]you know nothing about international politics[/s].

Says the boy most active in the romance section.

ObamaMessi:
Putin ordered the annexation of Crimea in 2014 after the pro-Kremlin then leader of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych was ousted. According to him, this was to protect Russians from far-right extremists. This year he invaded Ukraine with the excuse of demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine and annexing part of Ukraine wasn't in the "supposed" original plan.

Add your source - Google.

ladiguy:


You know nothing. It’s obvious you Started following Ukraine/ Russia’s conflict this yer or late last year. You weren’t conversant when Russia annexed Crimea. Read and dig more before you come online and comment

You know how to spit them. The ones wey just Google where Kiev dey 2 months ago.

Vl3ly:
compair protest in Russia to other European countries
Europe (France) is losing in Africa while Russia is gaining
Russia has opened the door for every nation to talk to USA anyhow, yesterday Nicaragua just suspend US ambassador
And every nations are now converting there dollar reserve to yen
Iran is also turning back to Iran nuclear deal with America, what do think it cause it

Russia has changed the world

If you are attributing what happens in Nicaragua and Iran to putin's onslaught on Ukraine, i would advise you to stick to Tinubu Atiku and Obi in Nigeria. It is normal for smaller nations to challenge the US as long as it will not attract sanctions. We are going into US/uni-polar world.

ObamaMessi:
Putin ordered the annexation of Crimea in 2014 after the pro-Kremlin then leader of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych was ousted. According to him, this was to protect Russians from far-right extremists. This year he invaded Ukraine with the excuse of demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine and annexing part of Ukraine wasn't in the "supposed" original plan.

You read it online. You weren’t aware of the event then, so stay calm and study the events as it’s unfolds

ObamaMessi:
USA also has nuclear. Putin will not go nuclear, he was just bluffing. Why go nuclear or threaten to go nuclear that will leave everyone a loser if not that the conventional war is not favouring. You all should stop making it sound like only Russia possess nuclear arsenal.

the most powerful nuclear weapons in the world is possessed by Russia x5 or above than the 1 of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
When nuclear war happened btw both of them
NATO Will loss more compair to Russia because of land mass and small inhabitant is going to favor Russia

Vl3ly:
the most powerful nuclear weapons in the world is possessed by Russia x5 or above than the 1 of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
When nuclear war happened btw both of them
NATO Will loss more compair to Russia because of land mass and small inhabitant is going to favor Russia

Sir I'm sorry for not buying this unthinkable imagination born out of emotion. What makes the Russian arsenal different from America's? You mean American's don't work in upgrading their weapons? Lissen, USA, France, UK, Germany and Israel all possess nuclear arsenal and other powerful weapons and Russia cannot stand all these countries when they strike in unison. NATO will topple putin and seize Moscow within a month.

According to nuclear war analyst
1 pix NATO has 944,225,670
Russia has 145,934462

1hour of nuclear war NATO nation will lost 9.1 of it's population which is 103,764,359

While Russia will lost 62.9 of it's population which is 2,320,102

2 pix all the world go suffer am except new Zealand and Australia

So NATO know there dooms day

ObamaMessi:
Sir I'm sorry for not buying this unthinkable imagination born out of emotion. What makes the Russian arsenal different from America's? You mean American's don't work in upgrading their weapons? Lissen, USA, France, UK, Germany and Israel all possess nuclear arsenal and other powerful weapons and Russia cannot stand all these countries when they strike in unison. NATO will topple putin and seize Moscow within a month.

olodo all these countries has stopped producing nuclear weapons decades ago USA are just sharing them ,even Hamas of Palestine allerg USA of giving nuclear weapons to Israel
The latest upgraded one is North Korea nuclear weapons, china USA and Russia

Vl3ly:
olodo all these countries has stopped producing nuclear weapons decades ago USA are just sharing them ,even Hamas of Palestine allerg USA of giving nuclear weapons to Israel
The latest upgraded one is North Korea nuclear weapons, china USA and Russia

In as much as we share different view about international politics, that doesn't give you the effontry to insult me. Healthy argument is good for your sanity.

ObamaMessi:
In as much as we share different view about international politics, that doesn't give you the effontry to insult me. Healthy argument is good for your sanity.

good 1:1

So Why are you saying what you lack it's knowledge?
If your brother "NATO" do anyhow den go collect

Double standard organization
Den no talk when USA use depleted uranium on civilian in Syria and Iraq

Now den put mouth for other person matter

Vl3ly:
good 1:1

So Why are saying what you lack it's knowledge?
If your brother "NATO" do anyhow den go collect

Double standard organization
Den no talk when USA use depleted uranium on civilian in Syria and Iraq

Now den put mouth for other person matter

That is why the United States is the only global superpower.

ObamaMessi:
That is why the United States is the only global superpower.

and you have gult to be abusing buhari of treating some region badly, you have forgotten that is a 1 super citizen of this nation

Hope you understand my expression

Just a nice video

x5 is nothing. The true number is in thousands. The nuclear weapons today are thousand times and above more powerful that what was used in Japan.

Vl3ly:
the most powerful nuclear weapons in the world is possessed by Russia x5 or above than the 1 of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
When nuclear war happened btw both of them
NATO Will loss more compair to Russia because of land mass and small inhabitant is going to favor Russia

They can scream all they want. lol We go spank them if they try nonsense.

Vl3ly:
Just a nice video

I sometimes wonder what does those Anti Russian Nairaland analysts smoke before commenting! some one came to your land and collected some portions of your land you still say the person lost , na wa.
Russia has proven that they are world powers, United States is only banking on manipulating minds of the gullible.
I love what putin has done, like play Russia is recovering his people and lands back, it going to take time but when they are through the USSR would be ignited.

kris:
They can scream all they want. lol We go spank them if they try nonsense.

you are funny enough
Despite sanction improving in weapons production
NATO Lasser can't shot down there shahad drone

Putin just offended the West over this day

Drones heading towards our military gets shot down.

The sanctions are biting, that's why Putin talks about it all the time. And over time it will get worse for Russia.

Na our sanction make Russia's GDP small so over so many years! We go squeeze them more!! By the time we are done with them, they will break into smaller countries.

Vl3ly:
you are funny enough
Despite sanction improving in weapons production
NATO Lasser can't shot down there shahad drone