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Russia At Risk Of Defeat In A War They Started. by Awesometouch1: 10:33pm On Oct 16, 2022
I have a sneaking suspicion that it might end sooner than anyone anticipated only a month ago.

Reports gathered by the ISW show that Russia is failing to set up a defensive line on the East side of the Oskii River. Troops that have fled Kharkiv Oblast are continuing to flee, and have seemingly all but evacuated Svatove, some 30km east of the river. It seems quite possible that Russia is preparing to abandon Sieverodonetsk, their single major advance since May.
The Ukrainian authorities report that some Russian units in occupied areas around Kherson are negotiating a surrender. Their situation is extremely exposed, Ukraine is advancing in the area, and they undoubtedly fear a total collapse like in Kharkiv—and this might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Reports say that Kyselivka, 10–12km from Kherson city centre, is now practically abandoned by Russian troops. Some units are reportedly refusing to fight. Russian soldiers have been reported to loot motorcycles, obviously in anticipation of having to flee.
Inside Russia, dissent is being heard. Local politicians from St. Petersburg and Moscow have openly called for Putin to resign. TV shows that used to contain mainly praise for the leadership and the military have deteriorated into shouting matches, and significantly, are now consistently calling the war a war. Military bloggers are highly critical of how the war is conducted.
Moscow no longer has any control over the narrative.
Russian military command are reported to have halted sending reinforcements to Ukraine. While this makes operational sense, as the units would just make target practice for the Ukrainians if they were deployed at the front, it indicates that the military command is aware that the situation is collapsing on them faster than they can issue commands.
Meanwhile, the Government is keeping quiet. Apart from claiming that the troops are “strategically regrouping” (while conveniently failing to mention that they forgot to bring even their rifles, never mind any heavy equipment), there has been no word at all from Moscow, apart from empty stock statements that they will be victorious. No orders, no new measures, nothing. These are clear signs of organisational panic. Since no one knows what to do, since there is no reliable information anywhere, and everyone fears doing something wrong, no one is doing anything. Putin attends a celebration of Moscow being founded, and is zipping off abroad for a meeting with Xi, as if he had nothing more important to see to.
Any one of those would not necessarily be hugely significant.

All five at once?

Something momentous might be happening. Don’t be surprised if Putin didn’t book a return ticket from Uzbekistan.

I’m not saying Russia’s collapse is imminent. But I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened this week.

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