The ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, APC, and its presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed are currently making a fresh push into the South-south, a region considered to be the stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

In the past couple of weeks, Tinubu and his party have visited the region three times. Two weeks ago, Tinubu held a rally in Asaba, the Delta State capital, only to return a few days back to the creek, Gbaramatu Kingdom. Two days ago, he was back again to Yenagoa for another rally.

Since 1999, the region has consistently voted for the PDP, with five out of six governors being members of the opposition party, PDP. However, with the election now a three horse race, the ruling party now fancy itself getting a piece of the cake in the region.

Because of the tight nature of the presidential race, many are already predicting a possible run-off in a second ballot because they believe none of the candidates will get the required constitutional highest votes cast and the 25% in 24 States as provided by the 1999 constitution.

Mr Tinubu is expected to take the Southwest regions and his running mate, Kashim Shattima is expected to pull strong numbers in the northeast, especially Borno, Yobe and Gombe States.

In the Northcentral, Kwara, Kogi and Niger State are places where the candidate of the APC is expected to perform well. In Nasarawa, the party is counting on the Chairman of the Party, Abdulahi Adamu, former Governor Tanko Almakura and Governor Sule Adbulahi to deliver a good outing. However, Nasarawa has been a difficult State for the ruling party.

The Muslim/Muslim ticket may cause the party to struggle in Plateau State, despite Governor Simon Lalong being the Director-General of the APC campaign council. In Benue State, the party is counting on the ‘Yes Father’ wave and the ongoing crisis in the PDP, as governor Samuel Ortom is a member of the G-5 governors. Despite these, Tinubu is expected to get the 25% requirement in the region.

In the Northwest, Mr Tinubu is counting on the six APC governors to deliver the votes; however, without Buhari on the ballot, the region has become a battleground between him, Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria Peoples Party, and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. Despite this, Mr Tinubu is expected to get the required 25% in all the Northwest states.

Going by this analysis, to get the required 25% in 25 States, six in Southwest, six in Northcentral, seven in Northwest plus three in Northeast, that gives 23 States already. There is the possibility of getting the figure in Bauchi, Adamawa and Taraba States, including the FCT.

Tinubu is also counting on APC governors in the Southeast, David Umahi and Hope Uzodinma to give a good outing in their States. In Abia State, Tinubu is also counting on Orji Uzor Kalu, Hon Nkeiruka Onyejeocha and Ben Kalu to pull a good number in Abia North senatorial district.

However, it appears that the ruling Party is not ready to take the gamble, and is now pushing for it.

So far, the strategy has been about leveraging on strong candidates in States. It would be recalled that Babachir Lawal, the leader of the APC Northern Christians had accused Tinubu of not visiting Southeast during the primaries because he considered it a waste of money.

And in the past couple of days, he has been visiting States where they have strong candidates for elections or governors.

“We intend to shock people in the Southsouth. It is a three-horse race between Obi, Atiku and Asiwaju (Tinubu). We are the dark-horse here. In Delta State, Ifeanyi Okowa is in a supremacy battle with James Ibori over the governorship ticket. We have a strong governorship candidate, Senate President Ovie Omo-Agege,” Ibrahim Abiodun, a member of Tinubu Grassroots Campaign told DAILY POST.

In Edo State, APC remains popular in Edo North senatorial district- the district where Adams Oshiomhole is running for a senatorial seat. In a three-horse race, Tinubu will be counting on achieving two things, get the 25% of the vote cast, and hope the PDP is unable to get bloc votes because the Obidient movement also fancies itself in the State.

Also, in Delta State, Tinubu appears to be willing to deploy enough resources in the State given the crack in the PDP, particularly the ongoing struggle for the control of the structure of party in Delta State. Okowa is the running mate to Atiku Abubakar, but the fight with Ibori has balkanized the PDP in the State, hence, the ruling party is willing to take advantage of the crack.

In Bayelsa State, the APC is counting on the popularity of David Lyon, who won the last governorship election but was sacked by the Supreme Court over the certificate of his running mate, Degi Eremienyo. Mr Tinubu and his party already held a rally in the State

Also, there is the former President Goodluck Jonathan’s factor, who is reportedly angry with the PDP over how the party has treated him with disrespect since he left office. According to reports, Mr Jonathan turned down the plea by Atiku for him to intervene in the G-5 governors’ rebellion.

In Cross River, Tinubu is counting on Governor Ben Ayade to give a good outing for him in the State. A 25% of the votes cast could also be possible, more so, in a three-horse race, the party fancy its chances.

Rivers State is another place of hope for Tinubu and the ruling party. Governor Nyesome Wike remains adamant that the National Chairman of the PDP, Iyorchia Ayu must go, and he has refused to campaign for Atiku.

Although the APC is in disarray due to an internal crisis, however, it would be recalled that Tinubu and the G-5 governors secretly met in London, the United Kingdom weeks days ago. It remains unknown if the party will be able to take advantage of the PDP national crisis.

Except for Akwa-Ibom, Tinubu appears to have a plan to get a good outing in the Southsouth.

http:///627d5e26221006en_ng?link=1&client=news

Tinubu has a better chance to have a good show in South South. Apart from Akwa Ibom, with little more effort and compromise here and there, the results will be interesting.

He will fail

Lol I keep laughing when I hear or read nyamuri flat.heads saying SS is lockdown for Pandora

Delta, CR, Bayelsa and Edo are States 3 candidates will get 25%

muykem:
Tinubu has a better chance to have a good show in South South. Apart from Akwa Ibom, with little more effort and compromise here and there, the results will be interesting.

APC is dead in SS, SE and MB.

ItsTutsi:
Lol I keep laughing when I hear or read nyamuri flat.heads saying SS is lockdown for Pandora

Delta, CR, Bayelsa and Edo are States 3 candidates will get 25%

Only the suicidals will vote for APC in the former Eastern Nigeria.
Talk of PDP and I might listen. But APC!? Lol . You're living in a fools paradise..

Na pesin wey get stamina fit push and stand...

Great grandpa wey dem dey helep climb motor no fit push anything for South-South...


Let him go and rest abeg...





#MySignature

muykem:
Tinubu has a better chance to have a good show in South South. Apart from Akwa Ibom, with little more effort and compromise here and there, the results will be interesting.

You should know that, southerners will never reason like the Northerners who will vote anyone that gives them peanuts at the booting center....

We carefully examine and vet candidates....

South will reject Tinubu and that's a fact....

The East will reject him as well....

Tinubu already made a mistake by putting the north as his priority to win election ...When Atiku and Kwankwaso is from that region...

It will be very difficult for him and the north will only receive him to collect the cakes he's been sharing....

ItsTutsi:
Lol I keep laughing when I hear or read nyamuri flat.heads saying SS is lockdown for Pandora

Delta, CR, Bayelsa and Edo are States 3 candidates will get 25%

You're suffering from ODS: Obi Derangement Syndrome.

Symptoms include always
* talking about Peter Obi morning, afternoon and night
* Obsessing about Peter Obi even when engaging in coitus with a partner
* Seeing Peter Obi everywhere you go, even in the toilet
*Looking for any opportunity to talk and criticize Peter Obi, even in the church or in the bedroom
*Seeing everything Peter Obi does as bad, while at the same time seeing everything an unrepentant mafia boss with dementia, does as fantastic
*Speaking and understanding tongues that are not known to the holy spirit eg: Babblu babla bubu.

If you're showing two or more of the aforementioned symptoms listed above, you should immediately seek help at Yabaleft; failure to do so can lead to extreme paranoia or mental breakdown after February 25 2023

Stop putting South South in your calculations, speak for your South East. The South South people are smart enough not to waste their votes on a candidate that can never win.
We South South know how to play intelligent politics.

There's no way Tinubu won't get 25% at least in 4 of 6 SS states. Nyamuri can knock their head on the wall e no consign me

I MADE THiS COMMENT ON NAIRALAND 2 MONTHS AGO,THANK GOD ASIWAJU is SEEING WHAT SOME OF US KNOW WILL HAPPEN NEXT YEAR,THE NORTH SHOULD NEVER BE HIS PLAN A,.......,........................................

I always start by making my bias very clear,I will vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in February 2023 and yes I have my Voters card ready.
Back to the matter,I hope Asiwaju's aides come to Nairaland to read comments,I think it's time for Us Asiwaju Die hard supporters to be realistic with what will happen Next year.
It's time to start making projections for Next year Elections.
The Task to elect Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be a battle,and it's time to start fighting Dirty.
The projections are very simple, whoever will become president of Nigeria needs to win only 17 states,I repeat only 17 states.
Asiwaju must be realistic about his projections,the North will betray him so he should stop the very crazy and futile effort of trying to please them.
My own Suggestions is for Asiwaju to concentrate on the 6 South-west states,and humble himself to make a deal with Gov Obaseki,Edo state is the only state that looks winnable outside the areas where ApC has Governors.
He should throw his resources into Cross Rivers and Ebonyi state.
Asiwaju will only be president if he can win at least 9 states in the South.
He should focus on these 4 States in the North Central,kogi,Kwara, Nassarawa and Niger.
For the North West and North East,only a Zombie will think H.E Atiku and Sen Kwankwanso will lose their states to Asiwaju.
He should only focus on winning four states in the North West and East.
Borno,Yobe,Kebbi and Gombe.
Only those 4 States look winnable.
I think Asiwaju supporters should start helping H.E Obi campaign, Peter Obi must scatter Atiku Vote in all the Eastern States and some South-south States.
Obi must win at least 3 states while Kwankwanso must win at least Kano and Jigawa.
This is the only route I see through which Asiwaju can ever become the President of Nigeria.
God bless Nigeria.

No nzogbu nzogbu politics

The question is what apc will use to campaign in south east or even South South and model belts is not a grave yard how can you convince a Benue man to vote for apc after what Fulani terrorist did to them.

He dey push for wat?!!

E dey labor room?!!

Lol SS is far from being a Eastern region, ur attach by force has been lossing steam recently! SS are not sentimental, tribal and religious bigots.. their reasoning is not beclouded by hatred

That's why they have produced the VP and president, while una flat.head still Labour in vain

That's why they had the minority seat under PDP while una were left with crumbs

owobokiri:

Only the suicidals will vote for APC in the former Eastern Nigeria.
Talk of PDP and I might listen. But APC!? Lol . You're living in a fools paradise..

Abeg shut up!! Werey! See how u confidently spew trash like elections are done in ur bear parlour, you think this is RadioBia.fraud?

Who are you to say south will reject Tinubu.. leave ur SE emotional mentality to ur fellow flat.heads

Tinubu will clear his region, just like PO.. while, SS will be battle ground.. I'm 100% certain Tinubu will get 25% in Delta, Edo, CR and Bayelsa, while PO and Atiku will settle 75%

In the north, Tinubu will totally annihilate PO.. apart from Benue and maybe Plateau State, PO won't see 25% in any northern State

JASONjnr:


You should know that, southerners will never reason like the Northerners who will vote anyone that gives them peanuts at the booting center....

We carefully examine and vet candidates....

South will reject Tinubu and that's a fact....

The East will reject him as well....

Tinubu already made a mistake by putting the north as his priority to win election ...When Atiku and Kwankwaso is from that region...

It will be very difficult for him and the north will only receive him to collect the cakes he's been sharing....

Just 2015,they were Drunk fishermen

Even sowore will garner more votes in the south south region than baba druggie

It's either ur being mischievous in support of Tinubu or your not conversant with authentic northerners on nairaland.. most of those monikers/threads spewing up recently in support of Atiku, is one person or two creating multiple moniker and threads

Just check the date, mostly are from 18 October up words and they don't engage in discussions

Faiththatworks:
I MADE THiS COMMENT ON NAIRALAND 2 MONTHS AGO,THANK GOD ASIWAJU is SEEING WHAT SOME OF US KNOW WILL HAPPEN NEXT YEAR,THE NORTH SHOULD NEVER BE HIS PLAN A,.......,........................................

I always start by making my bias very clear,I will vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in February 2023 and yes I have my Voters card ready.
Back to the matter,I hope Asiwaju's aides come to Nairaland to read comments,I think it's time for Us Asiwaju Die hard supporters to be realistic with what will happen Next year.
It's time to start making projections for Next year Elections.
The Task to elect Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be a battle,and it's time to start fighting Dirty.
The projections are very simple, whoever will become president of Nigeria needs to win only 17 states,I repeat only 17 states.
Asiwaju must be realistic about his projections,the North will betray him so he should stop the very crazy and futile effort of trying to please them.
My own Suggestions is for Asiwaju to concentrate on the 6 South-west states,and humble himself to make a deal with Gov Obaseki,Edo state is the only state that looks winnable outside the areas where ApC has Governors.
He should throw his resources into Cross Rivers and Ebonyi state.
Asiwaju will only be president if he can win at least 9 states in the South.
He should focus on these 4 States in the North Central,kogi,Kwara, Nassarawa and Niger.
For the North West and North East,only a Zombie will think H.E Atiku and Sen Kwankwanso will lose their states to Asiwaju.
He should only focus on winning four states in the North West and East.
Borno,Yobe,Kebbi and Gombe.
Only those 4 States look winnable.
I think Asiwaju supporters should start helping H.E Obi campaign, Peter Obi must scatter Atiku Vote in all the Eastern States and some South-south States.
Obi must win at least 3 states while Kwankwanso must win at least Kano and Jigawa.
This is the only route I see through which Asiwaju can ever become the President of Nigeria.
God bless Nigeria.

Ikpaitid:
Stop putting South South in your calculations, speak for your South East. The South South people are smart enough not to waste their votes on a candidate that can never win.
We South South know how to play intelligent politics.

tinubu moslem I don't know ur SS side but ikwerre is lockdown for Obidatti.

muykem:
Tinubu has a better chance to have a good show in South South. Apart from Akwa Ibom, with little more effort and compromise here and there, the results will be interesting.

lol. APC can only hope on Oshomole senatorial zone in the whole of SS for better outing. nothing more.

Ikpaitid:
Stop putting South South in your calculations, speak for your South East. The South South people are smart enough not to waste their votes on a candidate that can never win.
We South South know how to play intelligent politics.

which state in SS are you from that you think tinubu has a chance in SS?
SS States is between Atiku and Peter Obi. you can bookmark this.

After working against SS and Jonathan in 2015?

Tinubu will definitely get 25% in Delta, CR, Edo and Bayelsa.. Rivers State dependfing where Wike swings

Owologbo:


which state in SS are you from that you think tinubu has a chance in SS?
SS States is between Atiku and Peter Obi. you can bookmark this.

Tinubu will be the next President

Atiku 1st runner up.

ItsTutsi:
Tinubu will definitely get 25% in Delta, CR, Edo and Bayelsa.. Rivers State dependfing where Wike swings

depending where Wike swing?
this is funny.
You think Delta State or SS in general is one kind of mono ethnic region where someone from River State can have effect on people from other states?
you should learn from what happened to APC in Delta State even with a sitting governor Oduagha decamp to APC after PDP denied him senatorial ticket.
SS is not SW ok.

When I said Wike, I was referring to Rivers State not SS.. Wike's aides and support base has enough votes to give anybody 25% or more

SS is not SE neither, SS can never be lockdown for PO like how Ibo want to portray it! The best result PO can pull there is 50%, while Atiku and Tinubu will share the rest

Lol ur even talking about decamping. What Gov, Senator, HOA, HOR etc does L.P. have?

Owologbo:

depending where Wike swing?
this is funny.
You think Delta State or SS in general is one kind of mono ethnic region where someone from River State can have effect on people from other states?
you should learn from what happened to APC in Delta State even with a sitting governor Oduagha decamp to APC after PDP denied him senatorial ticket.
SS is not SW ok.

JAGABAN

ItsTutsi:
When I said Wike, I was referring to Rivers State not SS.. Wike's aides and support base has enough votes to give anybody 25% or more

SS is not SE neither, SS can never be lockdown for PO like how Ibo want to portray it! The best result PO can pull there is 50%, while Atiku and Tinubu will share the rest

Lol ur even talking about decamping. What Gov, Senator, HOA, HOR etc does L.P. have?

I'm not from SE.
I'm a Deltan. And I'm telling you that Delta State is between Atiku and Peter Obi.

But Tinubu will get 25%

Owologbo:


I'm not from SE.
I'm a Deltan. And I'm telling you that Delta State is between Atiku and Peter Obi.