Let me spare a little time this morning.
Key factors in elections in Nigeria:
1. Money
2. Ethnicity
3. Religion
These are the core factors that shape voting direction in this country. While a new force like state of the economy is begining to creep in especially the cosmopolitan areas in the south and FCT.
In geopolitics these factors influence results differently and I will only speak to Southwest, Northwest and Northeast.
Southwest
The Southwest is largely influenced by two factors of ethnicity and money. Although the 4th factor of state of the economy will play some roles in Lagos and auxiliary areas of Ogun State, ethnicity is a strong bond that will determine who will win the election. Based on this summation, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is poised to win overwhelmingly with more percentages as you move away from Lagos.its a matter of trlurn out. If campaigns should assume an ethnic dimension, there will be a huge turn out of may be up to 3million. I expect BAT to win at least 2m out of it, Peter Obi and Atiku to share 0.8m and other candidates 0.2m votes.
Northwest
Religion, ethnicity and money are all at play here. However, religion is a binding factor that can easily sway voters. These factors favor Atiku and Tinubu. If the sitting governors are resolute about working for their parties, money will play huge role. Its a 50-50 chance since Atiku is ethnically Fulani. It all depends on how party supporters troop out to vote. Candidates at the Senate and House of Rep will have huge roles to play.
Northeast
This is a battleground region. All these three factors will play key roles. Its largely a 56% -38% share for BAT and Atiku repectively. The Kanuri will vote their own in Yobe and Borno. Bauchi and Gombe are open to monetary impacts and Adamawa is for Atiku to lose. Unlike the NW, Peter Obi will have a few numbers here, May be like 3%-5% in few places. One of the key problems is that most voters in Ngeria do vote the same party same day in the north, and the LP seems to have no heavy weight candidates that can compete in these core areas.
I will impress on you readers to also note that the Niger Delta is a battle ground since there's no home boy and this may affect turn out of voters. Aside those three core factors, party loyalty and money will play crucial role. The battle here is between PDP and LP while APC will do well in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River crossing the 25% required of it due to certain heavy weights in those states like sitting governor in Cross River, Silva in Bayelsa, Akpabio in Akwa Ibim , Oshiomole in Edo and Omo Agege in Delta.
The Southeast is a Peter Obi homegrown and I want to beleive there won't be betrayals as delegates from the region largely voted a northerner against the consensus of voting a southern candidate at the PDP primary. Money will play a huge part here and turn out is key, I expect better turn out than 2019. PDP will still have some votes while APC will get substantial votes in Imo and Ebonyi. Depending on how money moves , expect PDP to get 10%-20% here. I will be surprised if this happen.
The real battle ground I the Middle Belt where religions and money will play key roles differently across all the states. We will need to break it down to pieces:
I expect FCT to be shared among major candidates across ethnic and religious lines. Nasarawa will follow suit but with APC having a majority followed by PDP and LP.
The Yoruba dominated areas of Kwara and Kogi will vote BAT with Atiku following because of his foot soldiers, Kogi will have APC majority votes. Benue, Taraba and Plateau are Christian states and have no ethnic candidates running to be president or Vice President, Senate and HOR candidates and sitting governors will play key roles here. I expect Atiku to win in Taraba and APC to be second and LP third. Benue is too close to call but plateau is battleground state but with APC having most votes because of its foot soldiers. Niger state is between APC and LP.
I will not conclude which party will win but if you have popular candidates in your party and your home region accept you, the better your chances. However, while I won't for certainty say who the winner is, statistically I think APC is the only one that can muster 25% across 24 states and FCT today.
Probability of winning 25% of votes
APC - 26 states +
PDP - 22 states +
LP - 14 states & FCT

Thank you

mandarin:
Let me spare a little time this morning.
Key factors in elections in Nigeria:
1. Money
2. Ethnicity
3. Religion
These are the core factors that shape voting direction in this country. While a new force like state of the economy is begining to creep in especially the cosmopolitan areas in the south and FCT.
In geopolitics these factors influence results differently and I will only speak to Southwest, Northwest and Northeast.
Southwest
The Southwest is largely influenced by two factors of ethnicity and money. Although the 4th factor of state of the economy will play some roles in Lagos and auxiliary areas of Ogun State, ethnicity is a strong bond that will determine who will win the election. Based on this summation, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is poised to win overwhelmingly with more percentages as you move away from Lagos.its a matter of trlurn out. If campaigns should assume an ethnic dimension, there will be a huge turn out of may be up to 3million. I expect BAT to win at least 2m out of it, Peter Obi and Atiku to share 0.8m and other candidates 0.2m votes.
Northwest
Religion, ethnicity and money are all at play here. However, religion is a binding factor that can easily sway voters. These factors favor Atiku and Tinubu. If the sitting governors are resolute about working for their parties, money will play huge role. Its a 50-50 chance since Atiku is ethnically Fulani. It all depends on how party supporters troop out to vote. Candidates at the Senate and House of Rep will have huge roles to play.
Northeast
This is a battleground region. All these three factors will play key roles. Its largely a 56% -38% share for BAT and Atiku repectively. The Kanuri will vote their own in Yobe and Borno. Bauchi and Gombe are open to monetary impacts and Adamawa is for Atiku to lose. Unlike the NW, Peter Obi will have a few numbers here, May be like 3%-5% in few places. One of the key problems is that most voters in Ngeria do vote the same party same day in the north, and the LP seems to have no heavy weight candidates that can compete in these core areas.
I will impress on you readers to also note that the Niger Delta is a battle ground since there's no home boy and this may affect turn out of voters. Aside those three core factors, party loyalty and money will play crucial role. The battle here is between PDP and LP while APC will do well in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River crossing the 25% required of it due to certain heavy weights in those states like sitting governor in Cross River, Silva in Bayelsa, Akpabio in Akwa Ibim , Oshiomole in Edo and Omo Agege in Delta.
The Southeast is a Peter Obi homegrown and I want to beleive there won't be betrayals as delegates from the region largely voted a northerner against the consensus of voting a southern candidate at the PDP primary. Money will play a huge part here and turn out is key, I expect better turn out than 2019. PDP will still have some votes while APC will get substantial votes in Imo and Ebonyi. Depending on how money moves , expect PDP to get 10%-20% here. I will be surprised if this happen.
The real battle ground I the Middle Belt where religions and money will play key roles differently across all the states. We will need to break it down to pieces:
I expect FCT to be shared among major candidates across ethnic and religious lines. Nasarawa will follow suit but with APC having a majority followed by PDP and LP.
The Yoruba dominated areas of Kwara and Kogi will vote BAT with Atiku following because of his foot soldiers, Kogi will have APC majority votes. Benue, Taraba and Plateau are Christian states and have no ethnic candidates running to be president or Vice President, Senate and HOR candidates and sitting governors will play key roles here. I expect Atiku to win in Taraba and APC to be second and LP third. Benue is too close to call but plateau is battleground state but with APC having most votes because of its foot soldiers. Niger state is between APC and LP.
I will not conclude which party will win but if you have popular candidates in your party and your home region accept you, the better your chances. However, while I won't for certainty say who the winner is, statistically I think APC is the only one that can muster 25% across 24 states and FCT today.
Probability of winning 25% of votes
APC - 26 states +
PDP - 22 states +
LP - 14 states & FCT

Thank you

Trash!

With Muslim Muslim ticket? Comedian

He only needs 25% in atleast 2/3rd states of the federation i.e 24 states.

Obidient4life2:

Trash!

You can save this till February. All the parties need to work to win, its up up there.

Save Nigerians from suffering and death. Vote Labour Party. Tell 10 people a day.

Let's step up the game and suffocate the evil killing Nigerians in APC and PDP. Walk the talk, tell at least 10 people a day especially in rural areas. Show them labour logos and how to vote. Join the movement to save Nigeria. It's for you and me!

mandarin:
Let me spare a little time this morning.
Key factors in elections in Nigeria:
1. Money
2. Ethnicity
3. Religion
These are the core factors that shape voting direction in this country. While a new force like state of the economy is begining to creep in especially the cosmopolitan areas in the south and FCT.
In geopolitics these factors influence results differently and I will only speak to Southwest, Northwest and Northeast.
Southwest
The Southwest is largely influenced by two factors of ethnicity and money. Although the 4th factor of state of the economy will play some roles in Lagos and auxiliary areas of Ogun State, ethnicity is a strong bond that will determine who will win the election. Based on this summation, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is poised to win overwhelmingly with more percentages as you move away from Lagos.its a matter of trlurn out. If campaigns should assume an ethnic dimension, there will be a huge turn out of may be up to 3million. I expect BAT to win at least 2m out of it, Peter Obi and Atiku to share 0.8m and other candidates 0.2m votes.
Northwest
Religion, ethnicity and money are all at play here. However, religion is a binding factor that can easily sway voters. These factors favor Atiku and Tinubu. If the sitting governors are resolute about working for their parties, money will play huge role. Its a 50-50 chance since Atiku is ethnically Fulani. It all depends on how party supporters troop out to vote. Candidates at the Senate and House of Rep will have huge roles to play.
Northeast
This is a battleground region. All these three factors will play key roles. Its largely a 56% -38% share for BAT and Atiku repectively. The Kanuri will vote their own in Yobe and Borno. Bauchi and Gombe are open to monetary impacts and Adamawa is for Atiku to lose. Unlike the NW, Peter Obi will have a few numbers here, May be like 3%-5% in few places. One of the key problems is that most voters in Ngeria do vote the same party same day in the north, and the LP seems to have no heavy weight candidates that can compete in these core areas.
I will impress on you readers to also note that the Niger Delta is a battle ground since there's no home boy and this may affect turn out of voters. Aside those three core factors, party loyalty and money will play crucial role. The battle here is between PDP and LP while APC will do well in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River crossing the 25% required of it due to certain heavy weights in those states like sitting governor in Cross River, Silva in Bayelsa, Akpabio in Akwa Ibim , Oshiomole in Edo and Omo Agege in Delta.
The Southeast is a Peter Obi homegrown and I want to beleive there won't be betrayals as delegates from the region largely voted a northerner against the consensus of voting a southern candidate at the PDP primary. Money will play a huge part here and turn out is key, I expect better turn out than 2019. PDP will still have some votes while APC will get substantial votes in Imo and Ebonyi. Depending on how money moves , expect PDP to get 10%-20% here. I will be surprised if this happen.
The real battle ground I the Middle Belt where religions and money will play key roles differently across all the states. We will need to break it down to pieces:
I expect FCT to be shared among major candidates across ethnic and religious lines. Nasarawa will follow suit but with APC having a majority followed by PDP and LP.
The Yoruba dominated areas of Kwara and Kogi will vote BAT with Atiku following because of his foot soldiers, Kogi will have APC majority votes. Benue, Taraba and Plateau are Christian states and have no ethnic candidates running to be president or Vice President, Senate and HOR candidates and sitting governors will play key roles here. I expect Atiku to win in Taraba and APC to be second and LP third. Benue is too close to call but plateau is battleground state but with APC having most votes because of its foot soldiers. Niger state is between APC and LP.
I will not conclude which party will win but if you have popular candidates in your party and your home region accept you, the better your chances. However, while I won't for certainty say who the winner is, statistically I think APC is the only one that can muster 25% across 24 states and FCT today.
Probability of winning 25% of votes
APC - 26 states +
PDP - 22 states +
LP - 14 states & FCT

Thank you

Your analysis is confusing....let me simplify it for you.
1. LP will clear SE, SS, Plateau, Benue, Taraba. They'll get significant votes in FCT and Lagos state.
2. Apart from Adamawa I don't see Atiku winning any other state. This is going to be his worst outing. Though Atiku is popular but PDP is no longer a popular party in the North
3. It will be a tough battle but Tinubu will still win eventually. The Buhari factor in the North will really help him.

I agree with you but niger is a battle ground between apc and pdp.

Overall, the apc is going to win, all things being equal.

Ruling parties have a lot of advantages.

You may refer to the last general elections in angola that returnes the ruling mpla despite negative urban sentiments. Ruling parties have something other parties dont have. They control the rural areas as against the urbanized centres where you find a lot of antigovernment sentiments.
Even today, there are places inec can not venture to conduct elections in the rural areas without govt protection. You'd hardly find an election observer.

Those who still doubt that the apc will win this election need to wake up from their slumber.

So funny... you agree Ethnicity for South West but no Ethnicity for North East and North West ..lol

This is why Tinubu would lose
You feel your people [SW] would be tribalistic and vote for you but the main people[NE] who have been tribalistic right from time would change their vote for a Fake Muslim.

I would let you know there is no pooling unit on social media but PDP have 2 state and massive structure in the SW so Tinubu need 80% of NE & NW like how Buhari had to win in first ballot

Ask your self is that possible?

Also if Atiku and Tinubu face in Rerun Tinubu would loose before 10am

Read this with a neutral mind and don't waste your vote

Ennoloa:
So funny... you agree Ethnicity for South West but no Ethnicity for North East and North West ..lol

This is why Tinubu would lose
You feel your people [SW] would be tribalistic and vote for you but the main people[NE] who have been tribalistic right from time would change their vote for a Fake Muslim.

I would let you know there is no pooling unit on social media but PDP have 2 state and massive structure in the SW so Tinubu need 80% of NE & NW like how Buhari had to win in first ballot

Ask your self is that possible?

Also if Atiku and Tinubu face in Rerun Tinubu would loose before 10am

Read this with a neutral mind and don't waste your vote

Not true.theres ethnicity in sw because its one tribe.there's no single tribe up north.
Tinubu doesnt need bloc votes,he needs 40% of the north and 60% of the sw

Ashiwaju Jagaban

There is no state in the South that Obi won't get 25%. Quote me after February. Add Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi and Kwara. He will get 25% in the middle belt states. Add Kaduna and Taraba. Is that not 24 states? Even FCT is added as a state and I have not added it oo. Did I inform you that as it stands today, Obi is likely to get 25% in Atiku's home state Adamawa. Bookmark my post and let's wait till February. E go do all of us like movies.

Ennoloa:
So funny... you agree Ethnicity for South West but no Ethnicity for North East and North West ..lol

This is why Tinubu would lose
You feel your people [SW] would be tribalistic and vote for you but the main people[NE] who have been tribalistic right from time would change their vote for a Fake Muslim.

I would let you know there is no pooling unit on social media but PDP have 2 state and massive structure in the SW so Tinubu need 80% of NE & NW like how Buhari had to win in first ballot

Ask your self is that possible?

Also if Atiku and Tinubu face in Rerun Tinubu would loose before 10am

Read this with a neutral mind and don't waste your vote

leave am, he think say he wise