ybn1306:




Atiku will clearly win a runoff with either APC or LP

Yes and no

garfield1:


True because most of the polls are conducted by people aligned to obi.again,se ss turnout is usually low and most of the polls are from the urban areas

Very true.

Svoboda:


Very true.

I dont know why all the polls give ss to obi massively.my own physical observation shows that ss is a battleground.every weekend I go to the rural areas and obi has a lot of work to do

There will only be a re-run between top two leading parties which would be Atiku and Tinubu. Who wins when this happens?

garfield1:


I dont know why all the polls give ss to obi massively.my own physical observation shows that ss is a battleground.every weekend I go to the rural areas and obi has a lot of work to do

Simply because the respondents are urban dwellers. A lot of the rural areas are impregnable fortresses of the traditional duo of the apc and pdp.

I heard some northern elders are pressing it on buhari to allow for power rotation to the south to maintain nigerias political balance and stability.

Svoboda:


Simply because the respondents are urban dwellers. A lot of the rural areas are impregnable fortresses of the traditional duo of the apc and pdp.

I heard some northern elders are pressing it on buhari to allow for power rotation to the south to maintain nigerias political balance and stability.

Wait,are you saying indirectly that buhari doesnt support tinubu and wants the north to remain in power! Is buhari this ethnocentric?

I feel just like in 1999-2011,the north will decide to allow power to the south

garfield1:


Wait,are you saying indirectly that buhari doesnt support tinubu and wants the north to remain in power! Is buhari this ethnocentric?

I feel just like in 1999-2011,the north will decide to allow power to the south

Those were my exact thoughts until atiku began playing the ethnic and religious card. Even at that, the buhari fever of 2015 and 2019 is absent among northern youths which lends credence to a likelihood of voter apathy in the north.

Buhari should have killed pdp right after he assumed in 2015, now his assumed aloofness has given them some traction. They were the same elements that blackmailed him into signing the electoral act.

If apc should lose this election, pdp will kill every fragment of opposition.
But they wont win.

Svoboda:


Those were my exact thoughts until atiku began playing the ethnic and religious card. Even at that, the buhari fever of 2015 and 2019 is absent among northern youths which lends credence to a likelihood of voter apathy in the north.

Buhari should have killed pdp right after he assumed in 2015, now his assumed aloofness has given them some traction. They were the same elements that blackmailed him into signing the electoral act.

If apc should lose this election, pdp will kill every fragment of opposition.
But they wont win.

True.this new electoral act esp bvas is what is giving pdp power.I fear they may hack inec and input results.I fear atiku

garfield1:


True.this new electoral act esp bvas is what is giving pdp power.I fear they may hack inec and input results.I fear atiku

Atiku is a notorious and desperate crook. Asiwaju shouldnt be caught napping.

raumdeuter:
Obi will not make any rerun, Show me a pathway for Obi to make top 2

Atiku vs Tinubu. Atiku wins because all the SE states that would have voted for Obi in first round will vote Atiku in 2nd round

Tinubu has to win at first ballot otherwise he will lose

he may win highest number of states won in the top 2 losers.

The constitution recognises who has the highest number of states won in the runner up and second runner up not the second highest votes.

chinchum:
he may win highest number of states won in the top 2 losers.

The constitution recognises who has the highest number of states won in the runner up and second runner up not the second highest votes.

Run off is between the top 2 candidate while anyone below 2nd drops off

1st and 2nd will be Tinubu and Atiku

OBIDATTI

raumdeuter:


Run off is between the top 2 candidate while anyone below 2nd drops off

1st and 2nd will be Tinubu and Atiku

Not correct. I also felt that was the case until i checked the consitution.

So if Tinubu wins 15 states and 12.5 million votes but did not neet 25% of votes in 24 states and fct. And Atiku has 11million with 10 states won. And obi has 6.5 million votes with 11 states won.

The run off will be between Tinubu and Obi

chinchum:


Not correct. I also felt that was the case until i reviewed the consitution.

So if Tinubu wins 15 states and 12.5 million votes but did not neet 25% of votes in 24 states and fct. And Atiku has 11million with 10 states won. And obi has 6.5 million votes with 11 states won.

The run off will be between Tinubu and Obi

No way, Obi is not winning the popular votes in the coming Presidentials. No way.

What is not known now is if he can get 25% im 24 states and/or FCT.

nameo:


No way, Obi is not winning the popular votes in the coming Presidentials. No way.

What is not known now is if he can get 25% im 24 states and/or FCT.

https://www.nairaland.com/7556641/2023-presidential-election-states-states#120674988

Show me the path to Obi s popular vote in the thread i created. I expect a reasonable critique not emotional tirade.

chinchum:


Not correct. I also felt that was the case until i checked the consitution.

So if Tinubu wins 15 states and 12.5 million votes but did not neet 25% of votes in 24 states and fct. And Atiku has 11million with 10 states won. And obi has 6.5 million votes with 11 states won.

The run off will be between Tinubu and Obi

I think both APC and PDP will meet 25% in 24 states

raumdeuter:


I think both APC and PDP will meet 25% in 24 states

i agree, although there is about 20% chance of APC and PDP not meeting the requirement.

chinchum:
https://www.nairaland.com/7556641/2023-presidential-election-states-states#120674988

Show me the path to Obi s popular vote in the thread i created. I expect a reasonable critique not emotional tirade.

It is that analysis that is completely Emotional. In fact, you literally put those figures off your azz.


Obi will win the SE, SS, NC and will be 2nd in the SW. He will get as much votes as he can in parts of NW(e.g Kaduna and Kano) and NE( Christain and minority parts of Taraba, Gombe, Bauchi, Adamawa, Borno).

By tne way, this above also aligns with the data from ALL scientific poll done so far on this elections.

Cheers

nameo:


It is that analysis that is completely Emotional. In fact, you literally put those figures off your azz.


Obi will win the SE, SS, NC and will be 2nd in the SW. He will get as much votes as he can in parts of NW(e.g Kaduna and Kano) and NE( Christain and minority parts of Taraba, Gombe, Bauchi, Adamawa, Borno).

By tne way, this above also aligns with the data from ALL scientific poll done so far on this elections.

Cheers

Dont hide under region win. Provide your states and the expected votes. If you want to hide your head like an Ostrich in sand you may believe a "Nextier poll" that project Obi will win Atiku in NW.