Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research, a renowned international body has predicted the All Progressives Congress’ (APC) Presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu to win this month’s presidential election in Nigeria.

The report released by Fitch on 1 February, 2023, did not also ruled out run-off possibility, which it said is rising.

The three main presidential candidate in Nigeria’s 25 February, 2023 presidential election are Tinubu (APC), Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and Peter Obi (LP).


“At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our view that the All Progressives Congress’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is most likely to win Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election,” the report said.

“We anticipate that domestic insecurity will rise following the election as the vote will likely aggravate existing security challenges. In addition, a Tinubu victory would end Christian-Muslim alternation of the presidency and thereby increase social instability,” it added.

The report also foreclosed protests and a divided legislature that will prevent a Tinubu presidency from implementing significant economic reforms, such as a removal of fuel subsidies or a simplification of the exchange rate system.

Fitch said while the election has traditionally been between the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the 2023 presidential vote would be three-horse race for the first time since Nigeria’s 1999 return to democracy.

This, it said, was due to the popularity of the Labour Party’s Peter Obi, especially among Nigeria’s urban and affluent voters.


“We believe that the Labour Party’s rise in popularity is likely to split the opposition vote, favouring the ruling APC. Indeed, we expect that Obi — a Christian from the South East — will do well in states in Nigeria’s South East and South South regions, which traditionally have been PDP strongholds.

“A January 2023 study conducted by SBM Intelligence — a local firm — showed a notable rise in new voters in Edo, Ebonyi and Anambra, all South Eastern states where we expect Obi will obtain a large share of the vote. This suggests that the Labour party is likely to win these states at the expense of the PDP — thus Splitting the opposition vote,” the report analysed.

Fitch said it expected that the demographic dominance of Nigeria’s Muslim-majority, as the North would benefit the APC.

“Northern votes accounted for 64.7% of total votes in the 2019 presidential election and given that the APC will likely remain popular in Northern states — in part due to Tinubu’s dual Muslim ticket — this will give Tinubu an advantage over other candidates. In addition, we expect that Tinubu will benefit from the APC’s incumbency advantages and his political experience,” it added.

Meanwhile, Fitch said it believed that domestic insecurity would increase in the run-up and aftermath of the election.

“This view is informed by two key reasons. First, public safety and security have worsened in recent years, especially in the North West due to bandit-related violence and the South East due to separatist activity. Anti-government sentiment has been on the rise, illustrated by protests against fuel scarcity across the country in January 2023.


“We believe that a closely fought election will likely aggravate these existing security challenges and amplify partisan and factional tensions. Second, a Tinubu victory would break with the unwritten tradition that Nigeria’s presidency rotates between Muslims and Christians.

“As such, we expect that a Tinubu win will increase perceived marginalisation among Christians, while Obi supporters are likely to question the fairness of the electoral process, especially after online polls have predicted a win for Obi,” it predicted.

The Fitch’s report also expected the APC to retain its majority in both Senate and the House of Representatives in legislative elections, which are held on the same day as the presidential vote.


“This view is largely informed by the fact that split-ticket voting (voting for candidates from different political parties) remains uncommon in Nigeria. Indeed, in previous elections, the presidential vote share was roughly in line with the distribution of seats in both the House of Representatives and Senate.

“As such, the party that won the presidency has always obtained the most seats in both houses of the assembly. Even so, we expect that policymaking will remain slow given ongoing divisions within the APC, which is reflected in Nigeria’s low “Policy-making process” score of 36.7 in our STPRI,” Fitch argued.

It further believed that reform progress would remain weak under a Tinubu presidency, saying despite Tinubu’s claims that he would phase out Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy and reform the exchange rate regime, “we believe that high inflation — which we will average 18.0% y-o-y in 2023 — and limited appetite within the APC will prevent him from doing so in the short term. In addition, the expected increase in anti-government protests following a Tinubu victory will likely discourage policymakers from implementing unpopular reforms in 2023.”

On the Risks To Outlook, Fitch noted that there is a growing risk that the presidential election would, for the first time in Nigerian history, go to a run-off.

It said due to Obi’s popularity, there is a possibility that none of the candidates meet the electoral threshold that stipulated that a president could only be elected if they both received the majority of overall votes and over 25.0% of votes in at least 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states.

“A run-off would probably pit Tinubu against the PDP’s Atiku Abubakar, and would likely be very close. In this scenario, we would expect the supporters of the third-placed candidate to question the integrity and fairness of the electoral process, which would likely lead to largescale protests which could challenge Nigeria’s already precarious security situation.

“Given that the second round would have to be conducted within three weeks after the first vote, social unrest and insecurity would persist for a longer period of time, which we believe would have negative implications for economic activity,” Fitch foreclosed.

Source: pmnewsnigeria.com

Whenever a survey is carry out and obi comes out top APC and pdp will always disagree then go ahead to buy one quack hungry online warrior to come up with something to discredit d real one

Lmao. PM News? You mean Bayo Ononuga?😆😆

APC have started online poll too?

I thought it never mattered?

Modified: The only report on Bola Tinubu On Fitch website was since September last year.

Dear APC, propaganda can't make your Tinubu win!!
https://www.fitchsolutions.com/search?search_api_fulltext=Bola+Ahmed+Tinubu&type=All&sector=&topic=

FYI

FITCH RATINGS IS YET TO PREDICT A WRONG OUTCOME IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WORLDWIDE

At least APC has found one “credible” Poll, Keyamo will start running mouth like tap water soon, praising Fitch.

One thing they should also recognize is that Fitch also said that Tinubu’s win will further aggravate the already bad insecurity and division in the country.

Do we need any better reason to avoid APC like leprosy?

Lizzysamuel:
Lmao. PM News? You mean Bayo Ononuga?😆😆

APC have started online poll too?

I thought it never mattered?

Who are these kids roaming this section for Pete's sake? So fitch has become an online poll? Because their prediction doesn't favour Obi or Atiku, you're now trying to castigate them? Lol

Every normal human being should know that Tinubu would win this election even without relying on all these predictions.

Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Rivers and Katsina are the top five states with the highest numbers of registered voters. It's only Tinubu that can boast of winning at least 3 of these 5 states with his party structure. Which of these states can you stake your 1m on that your candidate would win?

If you guys know the damage Obi has done Atiku in the South South and southeast, you'd know that Atiku cannot win. Atiku and Obi may not get 25% of the votes in any of the southwestern states aside maybe Obi managing to get 25% in Lagos.

Lemme not deceive you guys, Tinubu may likely secure more votes than Atiku in the South South and if that happens, Tinubu should be preparing his inaugural speech already.

Projection without scientific methodology is zero

This is how garfield1 predicts also

There is also no prediction on thier website here https://www.fitchsolutions.com/topic/nigeria

“At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our view that the All Progressives Congress’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is most likely to win Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election,” the report said.

Not surprised at all. This is coming from a very credible agency not the igbomade prediction by Nextier.

Tinubu remains the only organic presidential candidate in the midst of professional political prostitutes and desperate ticket hunters who want to ensure that they will be accorded the epithet of former presidential candidate.

Ennoloa:
Projection without scientific methodology is zero

This is how garfield1 predicts also

But most my predictions come to pass unlike others

Sure the business community has known the winners. NSE will not be gaining if the predicted winner will be a disaster. About 2 weeks to elections, the stock market is gaining, that is a boost for the predicted winners in the business world.

Obi supporters will be forced to love Atiku just to spite the accommodating yorubas.

My whole street in Abuja is Obidient and armed with their PVCS. If Peter Obi doesn't win this election then simply know it was rigged.

Even the Yorubas has rejected Tinubu. In Abeokuta today angry protesters were seen taking down APC campaign banners.

I know there are still some mentally ill people that would vote BAT and SHIT but he ain't winning Ogun state let alone the west.

I believe majority of Yorubas ain't fools and know better today.

YouTube video; 👇
https://youtube.com/shorts/4i_CoPooKdY?feature=share

garfield1:


But most my predictions come to pass unlike others

So you mean your predictions can't fail

seunmsg:


Not surprised at all. This is coming from a very credible agency not the igbomade prediction by Nextier.

Fitch Solution?

At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our view that the All Progressives Congress’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is most likely to win Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election,” the report said.


This is not a pool but a predication

CUMIN:
Obi supporters will be forced to love Atiku just to spite the accommodating yorubas.

Accommodating Yoruba's indeed.

Before your Tinubu became Governor of Lagos, an Igbo man has been Governor of Lagos long ago.

Ennoloa:


So you mean your predictions can't fail

What does most means? Do you have comprehension issues?

Throwback:
Tinubu remains the only organic presidential candidate in the midst of professional political prostitutes and desperate ticket hunters who want to ensure that they will be accorded the epithet of former presidential candidate.

Same Tinubu that jumped from SDP to AD to AC to ACN to APC?

Dey play😆

Abfinest007:
Whenever a survey is carry out and obi comes out top APC and pdp will always disagree then go ahead to buy one quack hungry online warrior to come up with something to discredit d real one

Fitch has more reputation than all the firms predicting for obi by far

malali:
FYI

FITCH RATINGS IS YET TO PREDICT A WRONG OUTCOME IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WORLDWIDE

Stop deceiving yourself.

Can you see the source of the report?

PM News? Owned by Bayo Ononuga?😆😆

garfield1:


What does most means? Do you have comprehension issues?

For one to talk with someone that supports APC, Its widely known you must first lower your IQ to understand them

Just how one in NL explaining Tinubu gazelle gazelle etc

I compare your predictions and with polls and I like your predictions

They've gone to meet the gateman of Fitch again. By tomorrow, Fitch international will disavow this statement, and their gateman and houseboy that is hoarding their fuel.

garfield1:

Fitch has more reputation than all the firms predicting for obi by far

U mean the gateman in their Nigeria office.

This prediction is even counter productive.
It will make people to be more wary of APC and do more to ensure that APC doesn't win.
The druggie has already lost.

Asiwaju on your mandate will stand

PM News should have made it clear that it was referring to an old report!
That aside, I find little to quibble here.

It does not take the brains of Einstein to figure that with opposition votes split in the manner described, the ruling party will return to power again. In the cold light of day, this is the political calculus we all have to contend with - once we set aside emotion and sentiments.

Image source: https://leadership.ng/2023-fitch-solutions-projects-tinubus-victory-despite-obis-exaggerated-popularity/

Lizzysamuel:


Accommodating Yoruba's indeed.

Before your Tinubu became Governor of Lagos, an Igbo man has been Governor of Lagos long ago.

Yes we recognize the contribution of ndubuisi kanu.

But the current IPOB miscreant hates anything Yoruba

Peterobi90:
I read the report and all I see Fitch saying is "Nigeria would be history if Tinubu becomes president"...

Nothing of such is on Fitch's website.

APC and lies

CUMIN:


Yes we recognize the contribution of ndubuisi kanu.

But the current IPOB miscreant hates anything Yoruba

Such as OPC terrorists hate Igbos, Hausas and Niger Deltans.

Source:
…owned by Onanuga. Thi.efn.ub.u’s campaign Media Director.