MrEverest:


You can only compare the energy the people of SE and SS have for Obi with that of 2011. By 2015, many Nigerians were already disappointed in Jonathan, including SS/SE.

Secondly, the youths are championing the awareness and this is unprecedented. On 25 February, most people will be at the polling units instead of watching movies or playing football like in the past.

There won't be voter aparty in the SE/SS, go and mark it!

If there will be mass turnout,you will see the signs.people will come out massively for his rallies in se ss but still,he records low turnout.

Wickedfacts:


To get 25%, he must win at least 1 local government.
Tell us the Local Government Peter Obi will win in Ogun state.

Bro let's stake on it. I have 50k already. Mind you, this is just for fun not war. Let's see who wins at the end.

senatordave1:


If there will be mass turnout,you will see the signs.people will come out massively for his rallies in se ss but still,he records low turnout.

Rallies? What exactly is the relevance of rallies to so many people?

senatordave1:


If there will be mass turnout,you will see the signs.people will come out massively for his rallies in se ss but still,he records low turnout.

Lol, you think it's by coming out during rallies? No! Rallies are more dependent on logistics than a true reflection of one's popularity. You saw the massive crowd that came out in Ebonyi for Peter Obi? Not even Anambra had such turnout. Does it now mean Ebonyi people love Obi the most in SE? No! What happened was that LP organizers in Ebonyi were more organized than other SE states.

Southerners hardly come out for rallies because they're relatively more gainfully employed than Northerners. Any rally you see in the South with filled stadiums, just know that students and village women from different local governments we're mobilized with promises of paying them money.

Don't worry, February 25 will shock you.

obailala:
Rallies? What exactly is the relevance of rallies to so many people?

Buhari recorded mass rallies up north in 2015.it shows that people are anxious and enthusiastic about his rulership

lionshare:


I am willing to take you up on the bet because I am certain PDP will get more votes than LP in Kwara.

Let's choose a middle man here. I don't know if Seun will agree to it. But if not, there are other persons of integrity we can transfer the money to. Remember my bet, Obi will get more votes than Atiku in Kwara state. I dey wait.

MrEverest:

You're dumb. Peter Obi doesn't need to win any local government to get 25% gross.

The foolish animal you call your father is dumb, you stupid pig.

Get off my mentions and go hang. Cursed bastard.

senatordave1:


Buhari recorded mass rallies up north in 2015.it shows that people are anxious and enthusiastic about his rulership

That I dont attend a rally organised on Tuesday, or even on Saturday, that doesn't mean I wouldn't go out and vote on election day.

Rallies are important for awareness; they also help encourage 'faithless' voters that the candidate indeed has a chance of winning. But just like myself, I know hundreds of other willing voters who wouldnt bother going out for those street carnivals.

obailala:
That I dont attend a rally organised on Tuesday, or even on Saturday, that doesn't mean I wouldn't go out and vote on election day.

Rallies are important for awareness; they also help encourage 'faithless' voters that the candidate indeed has a chance of winning. But just like myself, I know hundreds of other willing voters who wouldnt bother going out for those street carnivals.

Rallies are important whether you like it or not.do you realize that obi supporters were pulling crowds before campaigns started yet we hardly see these turnout? You use it to gauge a candidate's strength.a popular candidate usually attracts crowds.if I can accept money and attend to rallies of atiku that I hate,nothing will stop me from going for tinubu own...in 2019 in calabar,when atiku came a lot of people went to the stadium to see atiku yet in 2023,those people who are now with obi refused to go.obi is overhyped my friend

senatordave1:



Rallies are important whether you like it or not.do you realize that obi supporters were pulling crowds before campaigns started yet we hardly see these turnout? You use it to gauge a candidate's strength.a popular candidate usually attracts crowds.if I can accept money and attend to rallies of atiku that I hate,nothing will stop me from going for tinubu own...in 2019 in calabar,when atiku came a lot of people went to the stadium to see atiku yet in 2023,those people who are now with obi refused to go.obi is overhyped my friend

Lol... so you think because people arent falling over themselves to attend OBI rallies, it means his support is dwindling? What a JOKE!

For one, I'm not jobless and would never bother attending any of those useless campaign rallies where politicians do nothing but dance and say rubbish; I value my time so much and wouldnt squander it on such frivolities. In my opinion, people who attend such campaign rallies are mainly paid actors or just jobless onlookers... But that notwithstanding, that I wont attend rallies doesnt mean I dont have a candidate I support.

obailala:
Lol... so you think because people arent falling over themselves to attend OBI rallies, it means his support is dwindling? What a JOKE!

For one, I'm not jobless and would never bother attending any of those useless campaign rallies where politicians do nothing but dance and say rubbish; I personally feel the people who attend such campaign rallies are either paid or just jobless onlookers... But that I dont attend the rallies doesnt mean I dont have a candidate I support.

A lot of employed people attend such rallies.do you realize some obi supporters even attend tinubu rallies yet cannot attend obi own? No matter how you see it,obi should pull crowd in his region he isnt

senatordave1:


A lot of employed people attend such rallies.do you realize some obi supporters even attend tinubu rallies yet cannot attend obi own? No matter how you see it,obi should pull crowd in his region he isnt

What kind of gainfully employed person leaves their jobs to go attend political rallies on a Tuesday afternoon?

You just said OBI supporters attend Tinubu's rally but not OBI's own; doesnt that already prove my point that those useless rallies are attended mainly by paid actors?

So because an OBI supporter attends Tinubu's rally, does that automatically make them not to vote OBI on election day?... Keep deveivimg yourself!

obailala:
What kind of gainfully employed person leaves their jobs to go attend political rallies on a Tuesday afternoon?

You just said OBI supporters attend Tinubu's rally but not OBI's own; doesnt that already prove my point that those useless rallies are attended mainly by paid actors?

So because an OBI supporter attends Tinubu's rally, does that automatically make them not to vote OBI on election day?... Keep deveivimg yourself!

You yourself knows obi won't win.highest he can do is to get to a runoff

senatordave1:


You yourself knows obi won't win.highest he can do is to get to a runoff

Ahaa! So a runoff is possible?

Should have known you were just another 'wishful thinker' who's peeing on himself over OBI's divine progress in the last 8 months.

Started from:
"OBI only has 4 online supporters operating from a tiny room"
to
"OBI can't win a single local govt, he has no structure"
to
"OBI can only win south eastern states"

Now its
"The highest OBI can do is drag the election to a run-off"

Whoever said progress was a slow process definitely wasnt talking about OBI. The God of the suffering, molested, neglected and abused Nigerians has finally decided to show His might hand.

Imagine presidential candidates insulting Nigerians that they're TOO BIG to attend interviews or speak to anyone except on their terms. Such despicable arrogance fuelled by their massive stash of stolen public funds. Cant even imagine what becomes of Nigeria if such arrogance wins the election. God forbid!

senatordave1:


Not kano but jigawa,kaduna,plateau.the lowest turnout are still se ss.think of how kano will be

Are those state or federal constituency off season elections?

Plzz share the turnout rate for those. I wanna chwck something

obailala:
From my analysis, these are the states OBI is VERY SURE to hit 25% (and even more):
1. Anambra
2. Abia
3. Ebonyi
4. Enugu
5. Imo
6. Akwa-Ibom
7. Cross-Rivers
8. Rivers
9. Bayelsa
10. Delta
11. Edo
12. Lagos
13. Benue
14. Plateau

These are the additional states OBI is LIKELY to win 25%:
15. Nasarawa
16. Kaduna
17. Taraba
18. Ogun
19. Oyo
20. Ondo
21. Osun
22. Ekiti

In total, these are 22 states I think OBI is likely or sure of winning ≥25%.... The remaining 14 states are up for grabs and OBI still needs about 2 states in the bag. Which of these 14 states can additionally be added to the bag?

Kogi - Kwara - Niger - Adamawa - Bauchi - Borno - Gombe - Yobe - Jigawa - Kano - Katsina - Kebbi - Sokoto - Zamfara

your analysis is closest to the truth

Waterysperm:

Let's choose a middle man here. I don't know if Seun will agree to it. But if not, there are other persons of integrity we can transfer the money to. Remember my bet, Obi will get more votes than Atiku in Kwara state. I dey wait.

Agreed! You can suggest any other active & perhaps reliable member.

Why not.
Only in Anambra thou.
He can't win 6 states

I laugh when I see people tagging Kaduna as were LP will win . Until then Sha , 25th no far again

BeardedmeatR:
Obi can pull 25% in Kano and Gombe states. He is just one step closer to victory. He will also most likely score the highest votes cast

Hehe , %25 in Kano Kuma . Una dey amaze me . If LP pulls %10 in Kano , PDP / APC are having over %25 in Anambra

Waterysperm:
Obi will get that with ease. He will win the South-south and East which is 11 states. He will get 25% in the 6 Western States. I repeat he will get 25% in all the Southwest states and that brings it up to 17 states. Now add the following states: Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi, Niger and Kwara. You may be surprised I added Niger and Kwara. Tinubu will win Kwara but Obi will get 25%. Anybody can bet 50k on this with me. As for Niger state, the Christians there are solidly behind him. I am so sure of what I am saying. Most people don't know that there are about 35% to 40% Christians in Niger state. That is why the Christians there have vowed that any political party that failed to have a Christian deputy will lose the next governorship election. Now add the 17 states of the South and 6 states of the North Central and it will give you 23 states. Now add Taraba, Adamawa, Gombe and Kaduna. That is a total of 27 states.
Bookmark this post for future reference. Obi is the next president of Nigeria.

Where can we stake this 50k abeg . In Niger state , if he gets %25 , you win the bet

nameo:


Are those state or federal constituency off season elections?

Plzz share the turnout rate for those. I wanna chwck something

Legislative reruns.I can't recall the others but in anambra,turnout was 250,000 while in ekiti it was 309,000.,in jos rerun,it was 40% while in aba rerun,it was 18%

senatordave1:


Legislative reruns.I can't recall the others but in anambra,turnout was 250,000 while in ekiti it was 309,000.,in jos rerun,it was 40% while in aba rerun,it was 18%

I want figures plzz.

Dont worry, i will try to get it myself

nameo:


I want figures plzz.

Dont worry, i will try to get it myself

Only a miracle will spur se ss turnout

obailala:

From current projections, if OBI doesn't win on first ballot, it's almost certainly game-over!

The key reason OBI has a high chance today is because the votes in the north are shared by the other 3 top contenders. If there's a run-off, northern votes would no longer be shared.

If the run-off is between OBI and Tinubu, you'd agree with me that whilst the majority of the northern PDP voters may not necessarily like Tinubu, most would gravitate towards a Tinubu over an OBI (largely due to tribal / religious sentiments).

Similarly, if the run-off is between OBI and Atiku, with the distasteful intertribal aggression between the SE and SW, would OBI really be able to inherit Tinubu's south western votes? Would current APC supporters in the SW pick an OBI over an Atiku in a run-off?

However the case goes, I don't think a run-off will favour OBI. Whilst its important that OBI consolidates his votes in his strongholds, it's also imperative that he wins the election on first ballot.

You can't possibly know that. You are going off the common assumption that the core north will always vote against Obi and the SW will never fully support him. I actually feel the same way to an extent but you just never know. Here's a thread where Penguin2 asked a similar question to the north a while ago (before the primaries) https://www.nairaland.com/6942083/northerners-vote-igbo-man-president.

I have gone through the thread and found 4 northerners that responded (asanausana91, HarunaWest, FoolishBoy419 and QuotaSystem). Based on their recent comments 2 of them are now supporting Atiku, 1 is supporting Tinubu and the other is refusing to vote. Based on the same recent comments the two Atiku supporters seem to prefer Obi to Tinubu while the Tinubu supporter seems to prefer Atiku to Obi (I'm inferring from the recent post they can correct me if I'm wrong). Not exactly what you would expect right?

Anyway all of this is anecdotal. I hear what you're saying and agree with your points but I just don't believe "it's almost certainly game-over!" for Obi in a run-off. If Obi wins the popular vote with huge support from the youths but falls just short of the spread you have no idea what the reaction of the country will be. You think most Nigerians, even in the north, will just decide to give the presidency to Tinubu for example based on pre-conceived notions? I don't think it's that simple.

Even the reaction from politicians across the country and the political parties that lost would be uncertain. We don't know what NNPP will decide for instance.

Anyway let's watch and see. Personally I just hope APC are humiliated in this election. The message needs to be loud and clear so our future leaders can take heed.

wegevv:


You can't possibly know that. You are going off the common assumption that the core north will always vote against Obi and the SW will never fully support him. I actually feel the same way to an extent but you just never know. Here's a thread where Penguin2 asked a similar question to the north a while ago (before the primaries) https://www.nairaland.com/6942083/northerners-vote-igbo-man-president.

I have gone through the thread and found 4 northerners that responded (asanausana91, HarunaWest, FoolishBoy419 and QuotaSystem). Based on their recent comments 2 of them are now supporting Atiku, 1 is supporting Tinubu and the other is refusing to vote. Based on the same recent comments the two Atiku supporters seem to prefer Obi to Tinubu while the Tinubu supporter seems to prefer Atiku to Obi (I'm inferring from the recent post they can correct me if I'm wrong). Not exactly what you would expect right?

Anyway all of this is anecdotal. I hear what you're saying and agree with your points but I just don't believe "it's almost certainly game-over!" for Obi in a run-off. If Obi wins the popular vote with huge support from the youths but falls just short of the spread you have no idea what the reaction of the country will be. You think most Nigerians, even in the north, will just decide to give the presidency to Tinubu for example based on pre-conceived notions? I don't think it's that simple.

Even the reaction from politicians across the country and the political parties that lost would be uncertain. We don't know what NNPP will decide for instance.

Anyway let's watch and see. Personally I just hope APC are humiliated in this election. The message needs to be loud and clear so our future leaders can take heed.

You know I share in the sentiments of the Op. I fear that if the election goes into a run-off, Obi will be at a disadvantage because of some deep seated sentiments of the core north and some Yoruba against an Igbo presidency.

But like you said, these things are not cast in stone… No one can really predict the way things will pan out if things go to run-off.

For instance, if it’s between Obi and Tinubu, whoever Atiku decides to throw his weight behind might likely have an edge. And you and I know that Atiku seems to have a better relationship with Obi than with Tinubu; though anything can happen.

If it’s between Obi and Atiku, it is not impossible that Tinubu might be impressioned on to play the kingmaker that God seems to have destined him to be, and throw his weight behind Obi for the sake of Southern presidency.

So, in all, a lot of dynamics might come into play that will swing things either way. So, let’s continue to wait and watch.

Penguin2:


You know I share in the sentiments of the Op. I fear that if the election goes into a run-off, Obi will be at a disadvantage because of some deep seated sentiments of the core north and some Yoruba against an Igbo presidency.

But like you said, these things are not cast in stone… No one can really predict the way things will pan out if things go to run-off.

For instance, if it’s between Obi and Tinubu, whoever Atiku decides to throw his weight behind might likely have an edge. And you and I know that Atiku seems to have a better relationship with Obi than with Tinubu; though anything can happen.

If it’s between Obi and Atiku, it is not impossible that Tinubu might be impressioned on to play the kingmaker that God seems to have destined him to be, and throw his weight behind Obi for the sake of Southern presidency.

So, in all, a lot of dynamics might come into play that will swing things either way. So, let’s continue to wait and watch.

The problem though will be Obi's reluctance to strike a deal. He has gotten this far my staying clear of political favours that will ultimately put his presidency at the mercy of a few political elite.

Also, Tinubu and Atiku have history, they are both cut from the same political school of Shehu Yaradua and both have no issues trading favours to get what they want. They are likely to strike a deal in a runoff situation with Obi.

The solution however is if Nigerians irrespective of their ethnic or political leanings decide to take a new direction in Obi.

lovewins:


The problem though will be Obi's reluctance to strike a deal. He has gotten this far my staying clear of political favours that will ultimately put his presidency at the mercy of a few political elite.

Also, Tinubu and Atiku have history, they are both cut from the same political school of Shehu Yaradua and both have no issues trading favours to get what they want. They are likely to strike a deal in a runoff situation with Obi.

The solution however is if Nigerians irrespective of their ethnic or political leanings decide to take a new direction in Obi.

I know of Atiku and Tinubu’s past, they were even business partners until Atiku sold his shares at INTELs. That’s why I said anything can happen.

Again, you know Kwankwaso is still there and he too seems to prefer Tinubu to Obi.

If Obi will become president, he has to win at first ballot. Anything less and his chances will become slimmer.