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Will Ukraine Survive Russia’s Spring Offensive? - Foreign Affairs - Nairaland

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Will Ukraine Survive Russia’s Spring Offensive? by Vl3ly: 10:10pm On Feb 23, 2023
The entrance to Kherson is littered with ruined market stalls that the Russians burned when they occupied the city. Inside, the centre is deserted. Cafes are shut; restaurants are boarded up. On a municipal building in Freedom Square hangs a huge McDonald’s poster, sodden with rain.

The Ukrainians retook Kherson on 11 November. But in truth, it wasn’t a victory. The Russians withdrew from the city, and they withdrew in good order. This wasn’t the perfervid flight from Kharkiv, when they left their equipment strewn across fields for the grateful, and trolling, Ukrainians to delightedly hoover up. Now, Russian forces sit on the other side of the Dnieper River, shelling the city continuously.



Southern Ukraine is vital for Moscow: it is the land bridge from the Russian Federation to its Crimea, its Crown Jewel in occupied Ukraine. But as well as needing to cut off Kyiv from Crimea, the Russians need to keep control of the atomic station in Enegodar on their side of the river. It’s the largest in Europe — and it powers much of the South.

Everywhere I’ve been in Ukraine, soldiers and civilians have spent the past weeks discussing the coming spring offensive. After so many battlefield defeats, Putin, the logic goes, cannot simply roll things up and bring his troops home. He must double down. He needs some unequivocal wins. So far, he hasn’t had much success, but what he does have are a lot of soldiers, and a political system that can send them to their deaths with little if any blowback.

In a cramped apartment, just out of central Kherson, I meet with “Sergei”, a soldier who has been fighting here since the start of last year’s invasion. Back then, he was a Platoon Commander; now he is second-in-command of the Company. “Kherson did not fall; we did not conquer it. The Russians left in an organised way,” he tells me. “My educated guess is that the Russians could not maintain supplies. During that period of intense shelling in the autumn, I felt they were using all the artillery they had left before retreating. We destroyed Kherson bridge, so it was harder for them to keep supplying the army in the city, especially with artillery. But it was still a pretty brutal period.”

September through to mid-November was particularly gruelling. Sergei’s unit was stationed a few kilometres from Kherson in a small village, responsible for several lookout points along the left bank. The Russians constantly tried to advance toward them; they had an enormous artillery advantage — and they used it. From dusk to dawn, the shelling never stopped. There would be an occasional break for an hour or so, but it was impossible to tell when it would start and when it would end.

“This war here largely centres on artillery and Special Forces activity,” he tells me. “But as infantry, our role is digging and watching and reporting, and then more digging. It’s not easy to dig new positions under constant shelling. You can’t get out and dig. You do it little by little. We found some bushes and were using viaducts left over from Soviet times. They had concrete plates inside that afforded us some cover.” He continues. “The most difficult part for my guys was that they could not really understand our role: that we had to sit there like sitting ducks and facing all that shelling. The Russians know where we are and what we are doing.”

count since the first week of the war. This suggests Ukraine is holding its ground — but for how long?

“If we keep getting weaponry,” Sergei tells me, “if we get what our commanders are asking for, then we have a chance. Unless the Russians use nuclear weapons — in which case all bets are off.”

https://unherd.com/2023/02/how-russia-can-end-the-war/?=refinnar
Re: Will Ukraine Survive Russia’s Spring Offensive? by Lunja: 10:12pm On Feb 23, 2023
Ukraine was destroyed last year. It didn't survive!
Every sector of that nation has collapsed.
Western nations are now struggling to revive ukraine... cry

The fighting presently going on in ukraine, is between russia & nato.

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Re: Will Ukraine Survive Russia’s Spring Offensive? by Kingsnairaland(m): 11:36pm On Feb 23, 2023
The goal is to push out nato which has been achieved..

Nato no longer want Ukraine inside them since Russia holds their land by force

Ukraine is in darkness and cold and bleeding lol.

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