Nigeria at the crossroads: Impartial Analysis of the Leading Candidates at the Polls

“2023 election is a make or mar election for Nigeria” - Atedo Peterside.

The upcoming General Election is shaping up to be one of the most exciting and existential elections
in Nigeria’s political history. Transparently speaking, every election cycle is typically billed as the
most important or crucial by candidates, but this time around, it truly seems the country is on a
knife-edge.

For the first time, we have competitive three horse race in which anyone of the contenders can win.
Nigerians have typically been served in the past with a choice of lesser of two evils: Jonathan v
Buhari (2015), Buhari v Atiku (2019). However this time around, it does seem voters are spoilt for
choice and would be making a more positive statement with their vote. For many, this could be a
watershed moment where Nigerians look back on as pivotal in the Nation’s history.

Let’s analyse the 3 leading gladiators in this race:

1- Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC)
Former Lagos governor and long-time leader of the opposition to the PDP-led FG from 1999 to 2015
is now running for the top job. He was a key player (if not the most important player) in ensuring the
opposition parties coalesced around the idea of new mega party (APC) to dislodge the seemingly
indomitable PDP in 2013/14. That merger led to APC which heralded President Buhari in 2015.
According to Tinubu, “If not for me that stood behind Buhari, he wouldn’t have become the
President. He tried the first time, he failed. The second time, he failed. The third, he failed.”
Fast forward to today, Buhari is all but a failed president battling with so many challenges: insecurity
and banditry, economic mismanagement, petrol and cash scarcity amongst others. The outlook is so
bleak, it seems Tinubu isn’t interested in running on Buhari’s legacy but rather distancing himself
from several of the president’s policies, and instead offering an alternative to the status quo. In plain
terms, there’s no continuity candidate in this election. Apparently though, that’s an effort in futility
according to Lai Mohammed, Minister of information and culture. “They are inseparable (Buhari’s
scorecard and Tinubu’s presidential bid). It is one thing if Asiwaju Bola Tinubu was contesting on an
independent platform, which is not available. It is a different thing if he is coming in from another
party, say Labour, then he can base his campaign on what he is going to do. But if your party has
spent eight years in power and you cannot tell me what they have done, why should I vote for you?”
he said.

Pros
- Lagos Track Record: The self-style city boy is offering Nigeria the visionary leadership
template he deployed in Lagos State from 1999 to date. Revenues grew from N1.2 billion in
1999 to N45 billion (2021) monthly. He also instituted a lot of reforms in areas of security,
judiciary, transport etc. that other states have tried to replicate.
- Developing Talent: Another testament to Jagaban’s leadership style is his ability to spot
talent. Fashola, Ambode, Sanwo-Olu, Osinbajo just to mention a few, would not be on the
political landscape today if not for Tinubu’s influence.

Cons
- Old Order: Asides the legitimate questions surrounding his age and mental acuity, Tinubu is
very much part of the old political order. Since the return of democracy, he has been
involved in state governance since 1999 to 2007, and some will argue via proxies post 2007.

This does not augur well for his candidacy in a change election.

- Controversy & Corruption Allegations: Tinubu has been at the centre of several allegations
including details about his birth and background shrouded in secrecy. There have been
questions raised about his source of wealth and how he acquired a lot of choice properties
in Lagos during his reign, including allegations of fraud via Alpha Beta Consulting. He is also
one of the beneficiaries of the unpopular life pension for ex-governors and their deputies.

- Muslim/Muslim ticket: On one hand, APC is asking for power to be rotated from North to
South in the interest of equity, fairness and national unity. On the other hand, APC totally
ignores the equally important if not more important issue of religious sensitivities. It is
arguably far more crucial for Christians (in both North and South) to have a Christian on the
ticket than a power shift from a Northerner to a Southerner.

2- Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (PDP)
Atiku Abubakar is not a newcomer in the political arena. Former Vice President to Obasanjo in 1999
to 2007, and perennial presidential candidate since 1993. Atiku and PDP have positioned themselves
as the ‘safe choice’. He is experienced, calm, a known political entity.

Pros
- Experience: Supporters of the former VP claim he has the requisite experience to be
President having served under President Obasanjo. They point to the handling of the
National Economic Council as well as his leadership of the National Council on Privatization
as giving him the much-needed breadth and depth to pilot Nigeria’s affairs.
- Established Structure: the PDP has been in power for 16 out of 24 years since 1999. It has a
strong presence in every single ward and LGA in Nigeria, hence come election day, you can
trust the rank-and-file members to do the party’s bidding.
- Pro-private sector: Atiku has been very big on the idea of a Private-sector driven economy.
He has advocated for full privatization of the NNPC and other national assets. A lot of
analysts believe government should play a very limited role in running business and only
play a regulatory role. In the famous words of Will Rogers, ‘The business of government is to
keep the government out of business’. Atiku’s stance has earned him the nickname ‘Mr
Privatize’ from Tinubu. “My people, you cannot entrust your future or that of our nation to
Mr. Sell Everything Atiku...” Tinubu said.

Cons
- PDP baggage: Atiku says he has the best plan to rescue Nigeria and PDP is the safe
alternative. The only problem is most Nigerians still remember the PDP years and like
Tinubu, Atiku is also part of the old order. Amidst all the achievements PDP want the voters
to reminiscence over (consistent GDP growth, single digit inflation, stable exchange rate,

record levels of FDI, lower employment etc.), PDP also grappled with issues of wanton
corruption, less than credible elections, executive abuse of power, lack of internal
democracy etc. It was the misrule by PDP that opened the door to APC, with Atiku himself
being one of the crusaders in 2015.

- Corruption: Atiku has been embroiled in corruption allegations from his time in government.
From Obasanjo to the most recent SPV leak tape. There were also allegations Atiku bribed
party delegates to clinch the PDP ticket, which is not uncommon in the Nigeria political
space. They were same allegations in 2015, when then General Muhammad Buhari, said he
had no dollars to offer APC delegates. Atiku’s image is one that is shrouded in corruption and
a lot of voters are looking for an anti-corruption candidate.

- Power Shift: President Buhari is rounding up his 8 years in Government. A lot of political
commentators have argued that power must rotate to the South to calm the tensions in the
country. This was the ostensible reason the APC Northern Governors zoned the party’s ticket
to the south, in the interest of national unity. Atiku, a Northern Muslim, is seeking to take
over from Buhari, which many have said would be unfair. It is for this reason as well as APC

Muslim/Muslim ticket that the Vice-presidential candidate of Labour Party, Datti Baba-
Ahmed said ‘...2 of the 3 leading candidates have “misconfigured themselves...and fallen out

of alignment with the dictates of winning elections in Nigeria.”


3- Peter Obi (LP)
Step in former Governor of Anambra, Mr Peter Obi. Since declaring for president 12 months ago, he
has energised the political space with his #Obidient movement. He is the youngest of the front three
contenders and resonates mostly with the youth.

Pros
- Character: One of the major reasons Peter Obi is generating a lot of buzz and challenging the
two main political parties in barely 11 months is because he is viewed as authentic. For many
years, he has advocated for a slimmed-down, frugal government, free from the
extravagance and largesse associated with political elites. He rejected plots of land and
generous pensions as ex-governor of Anambra state. He’s a departure from the bigmanism
culture in Nigeria and is often seen flying commercial flights and carrying his own bag. He
shuns the trappings of political office and opts for a more simple, humble and pragmatic
approach. Many Nigerians (especially the youth) identify with him and believe he’s not your
everyday politician.

- Fiscal Discipline: Just like in his private life, Peter Obi’s public record portrays him as a
prudent administrator. He oversaw Anambra’s finances with unmatched discipline. He is
probably the only governor who left power without any loans or millions of dollars in the
coffers. In a political climate, where most governors (and FG) borrow to almost
unsustainable levels of debt, Peter Obi has shown great restraint and delayed gratification
which he believes is the bedrock for economic development (capital formation).

- Agility: At 61, Peter Obi is the youngest of the three main contenders. For a country that was
almost steeped into political crisis due to the number of overseas medical trips embarked on
by President Buhari (and late President Yar’udua), Peter Obi seems the closest to matching
the energy of the teeming youths in the country. While age is no yardstick for leadership, it’s
worth considering the physical and mental strength of a candidate to avoid a repeat of
recent political history in Nigeria.


Cons
- Structureless: Peter Obi is running on the Labour Party platform, but in truth, his campaign
is the closest, we have ever been to a viable independent candidate in Nigeria. Defecting
from the PDP last year just before their presidential primaries, Peter Obi got the Labour
Party ticket to actualise the dream. Labour Party neither has a sitting governor nor National
Assembly member (discounting defections from candidates who lost primaries). In a country
where elections are largely local (operation deliver your ward/LGA/State) and are a test of
political structure and sagacity, it remains to be seen how Peter Obi will overcome this giant
hurdle. Also linked to the above is the lack of credible Labour Party National Assembly
candidates, to help win elections and support an Obi presidency for him to push through his
legislative agenda or stave off the threat of an impeachment.

- Lack of Experience: According to his opponents, leading a country as diverse and complex as
Nigeria is a different ball game compared to being a state governor. From insecurity to the
economy to managing multiple cross-purpose interest groups and cabals, some have argued
the role is too big for the former governor of Anambra state. According to Governor Godwin
Obaseki of Edo State, Peter Obi is “a very good man” but lacks the necessary experience to
lead Nigeria.

- Lack of Antecedents: Opponents of Peter Obi will say the job of a governor or President is
not to save money alone. A leader is meant to offer transformational change. They will point
to Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) remaining virtually unchanged in his 8yrs in office,
lack of infrastructure etc. According to Gov Soludo, Obi’s investments are almost worthless
and poverty rates increased. Gov. Obi responds by saying he improved education in
Anambra from #26 to #1 and ranked #1 in MDG across all 36 states. However, it must be said
that Anambra (albeit with her meagre resources) is still no “El dorado” today.

An empirical attempt at choosing the best candidate in these elections can be quite daunting. It may
involve researching the candidates, studying their manifestos, examining the party platforms,
evaluating candidate’s character and experiences, and considering principles etc. In the end,
choosing the best candidate is a personal decision, and comes down to the voters. Ideally, one
should base their decision on the verifiable information available to them and your own values and
priorities.

President Buhari has promised a free and fair election and from all indications is working towards
ensuring the poll is reflective of the will of the Nigerian people. May the best man win!

Triplo3[i][/i] is a Political Analyst and writes from the United Kingdom.

We will vote Atiku even if he will sell Nigeria, auction the national anthem.... And steal our soul join...
Everyone should vote his own PERIOD

Dear NL mods, a lot of analysis are usually biased from major candidates camp. This is an independent, objective and fair assessment of each candidate. This thread is very educative. Please push to frontpage

Dominique
Lalasticla
Seun
justwise
nlfpmod
Odewaleadesoye

Best analysis so far.

Peter Obi

Structureless: What have we gained electing those with structures?
Buhari would have made an excellent president, but he had to compensate those who supported him with ministerial positions, which is why he failed.

Lack of Antecedents: Everyone has antecedent, even a 5-year old. Peter Obi's antecedent is being financially prudent (AKA stingy). O.P, I don't think "antecedent," is the word you are looking for.

Lack of Experience: Yaradua is Nigerian's best president and he was "just" a former governor. Peter Obi has been governor for 8 year, bank manager, business man and more.

Surprisingly, this sentiment often comes from PDP, whose candidate was a boy boy to OBJ.

Fair assessment alright I expect OP to include Pandora details n the fact that Lagos state commissioner of police Marvel Akpoyibo caught Peter Obi looting 250 million monthly from Anambra to his warehouse in Lagos.