In Nigeria’s previous elections, votes were largely split between two parties the APC of outgoing President Buhari and the PDP that held power from 1999 to 2015. This time, the 25 February vote saw four different presidential candidates win majorities at state level.
President-elect Bola Tinubu received the least number of votes, and lowest winning percentage, of any victor in the Fourth Republic (1999 to date), taking just 36.6 per cent of the total votes cast. The runners-up have already started legal challenges to his win.
This increasingly fractured electoral landscape demonstrates the extent of Nigeria’s political divisions and makes assessing the accuracy of results announced by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) exceptionally difficult. Even attempting to review the performance of the electoral body can lead to accusations of ‘endorsing results’.
Preliminary analysis by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) identified six key issues – identity, insecurity, institutions, information disorder, inter and intra party squabbles and inducements – that would shape the elections. Perhaps now, having dotted our i’s, we can cross our t’s – trust and turnout are the biggest stories in the post-election review of the elections.
Trust in the process?
The major institution charged with overseeing the presidential elections process was the INEC – which was well-resourced, some $2 billion invested in it for these elections.
It continues to face questions over logistical shortcomings and technology failures, notably challenges with the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the limited functionality of the INEC results viewing portal (IReV). IReV was supposed to improve transparency by displaying digital copies of result sheets from all the nearly 180,000 polling units once they were signed.
INEC and its technology are not solely responsible for this crisis of confidence in the electoral process.
But data on the IReV portal remained incomplete even when the winner was announced, driving rumours of electoral malfeasance on social media and fuelling mistrust in the result. The fact that results failed to tally with opinion polls, which largely predicted a win for Labour Party’s Peter Obi, also added to calls for the process to be reconducted – notably including former President Olusegun Obasanjo who had endorsed Obi.
Political parties were guilty of engaging in vote buying documented by a Chatham House report on the practice in 2022 – which tarnishes the legitimacy of their wins. Others were able to use their control of state governments to engage in targeted voter suppression and intimidation, with incidents of violence against people coming out to vote reported almost nationwide.
Such tactics have a long track record in Nigeria. But the technological innovations introduced by INEC had been heralded as ‘game changers’, following successful deployment during the off-cycle gubernatorial elections in 2022 (Ekiti and Osun), and had significantly raised popular hopes of a clean process – their failure to live up to these lofty expectations may have done more harm than good.
Turning out the vote
Violence and intimidation also affected voter turnout, compounded by the fuel and cash shortages that hampered preparations. Engagement appeared to be strong in the run-up to the election, particularly among the young people who comprised more than 70 per cent of 9 million plus new voters added to the register before 2023.
But of the 93.5 million registered voters, only 87.3 million had collected permanent voter cards on election day, and less than a third of them ultimately cast a ballot. Turnout overall was just 27 per cent, a record low.
Combined with the unprecedented division of votes between four leading candidates, this means that, if confirmed by the courts, President-elect Tinubu’s mandate would flow from less than 10 per cent of Nigeria’s electorate. This is a worrying trend, that both the government and the political class in general need to reflect upon – there is an urgent need to improve the quality and relevance of Nigerian democracy.
Furthermore, the geographic distribution of votes points to the increasing salience of ethno-religious identities in Nigerian politics. Where previously voting patterns had been defined by cross-cutting identity markers – notably along generational lines, with younger and older voters gravitating towards different candidates – in 2023 those voters that did turn out were concentrated in the ‘home’ communities of the leading candidates.
These ethnic and religious voting patterns have heightened tensions in more heterogeneous states, such as Lagos, where no one community holds a ‘natural’ majority and competition is high.
Subsequent gubernatorial elections, held on18 March, saw significant voter intimidation, suppression, and violence in Lagos, where Peter Obi, of the Labour Party, narrowly triumphed during the presidential polls.
The future
Regardless of the results of the legal challenges to a putative Tinubu victory, whoever heads the next administration will have to work hard to engage with these ‘emboldened minorities’, underpinned by a divided electoral map and incendiary rhetoric in the run-up to the election.
The political configuration of the 10th National Assembly will be more diverse than in the past, at least in terms of political party representation – eight different political parties won seats to the National Assembly. This could be a good development for democracy and enhance the texture of the debate during law-making, despite the continued near-exclusion of women from representative positions across Nigeria.
There will be a temptation for newly elected officials to serve the interests of ‘their’ communities rather than acting in the interests of all Nigerians.
Ultimately, however, the legacy of this election is that it has shown Nigerians how divided the country really is, for better or worse. Technology, for all its promise, cannot bridge these divides alone – even if perfectly implemented.
There will be a temptation for newly elected officials, at all levels, to serve the interests of ‘their’ communities rather than acting in the interests of all Nigerians, risking a deepening spiral into ethno-religious confrontation.
Trust is in short supply, and low turnouts in future will leave the field clear for partisans from all sides. Newly elected leaders should see solving this challenge as their primary mandate. Whether this realization takes hold remains to be seen. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/03/nigeria-trust-and-turnout-define-2023-elections?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=organic-social&utm_campaign=nigeria&utm_content=electionChatham House: "Nigeria’s Presidential Election Not Conducted in Line with INEC’s Guidelines"-Says electoral body learnt no lesson
-Fitch downgrades Nigeria’s short-term social stability, on Tinubu’s ‘weak’ mandate
Chatham House, an independent policy institute based in London, has stated that from its analysis of the February 25 presidential election, it would appear that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) failed to learn new lessons.
The organisation stressed that the electoral umpire failed to adhere to its own guidelines, which it enunciated before the poll, especially the one bordering on the uploading of results in real-time.
The London-based institute made the assertions just as Fitch Solutions lowered Nigeria’s Social Stability score in its proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) to 17.5 out of 100, down from the 25.0 previously projected, following what it described as the aftermath of the “weak” mandate claimed by the country’s president-elect, Bola Tinubu.
INEC had last Wednesday announced the former Lagos State governor as winner of the keenly contested presidential poll. However, the contending parties refused to accept the verdict of the electoral umpire.
While the presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP), Mr. Peter Obi, approached the courts to overturn the result, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Mr Abubakar Atiku, who had also announced plan to challenge the outcome of the election in court, led a protest against the result on Monday.
Stating that Nigeria’s presidential election results had put disenfranchisement in the spotlight, Chatham House noted that despite boasting the biggest electoral register in Africa of 93.4 million voters, fewer than 25 million valid votes were counted in Nigeria’s 2023 election.
Writing for the body, the Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Dr. Leena Koni Hoffmann, noted that the delayed opening of polls meant that many potential voters were not able to vote.
Chatham House, also known as the Royal Institute of International Affairs, prides itself as an independent policy institute headquartered in London. Its stated mission is to provide commentary on world events and offer solutions to global challenges.
Founded in 1920, Chatham House engages governments, the private sector, civil society and its members in open debates. All the major presidential candidates in Nigeria were visitors to the organisation before the presidential election.
According to Chatham House, the results announced by chair of INEC, Mahmood Yakubu, showed that the incumbent APC candidate, Tinubu, received 8.87 million votes – roughly one-third of the total. His main challengers, Atiku of PDP, in his sixth attempt, and Obi of LP, the organisation said, garnered 7 million and 6.1 million votes, respectively.
Hoffman wrote, “The INEC’s performance and controversies over these results mean that the electoral reforms and lessons declared to have been learned were not fully applied and, as an electoral body, it was significantly less prepared than it claimed.
“The logistical failures of INEC and widespread delayed opening of polling units meant that voters who showed up at the polls early were frustrated and many voters and INEC staff were not able to locate their polling units for several hours.”
Chatham stated that Nigerians queued in the sun and rain to cast their votes, despite recurrent fuel crisis, epileptic power supply, record inflation, and a painful cash crunch. Yet it noted that thousands of voters were disenfranchised, and multiple irregularities were recorded as well as intimidation and violence as noted by election observers.
Chatham House stated, “Less than half of eligible voters could participate in the elections, despite the commission’s N305 billion budgetary allocation. While Nigeria’s youth seemed energised leading up to the elections, it seems their ability to turn out is still being hugely constrained by how difficult and potentially dangerous it is to cast a vote in Nigeria.
“The INEC’s performance and controversies over these results mean that the electoral reforms and lessons declared to have been learned were not fully applied. At just 25.7 per cent, the elections have the lowest recorded turnout of any election since Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999, despite being the most expensive. These dwindling numbers highlight how Nigeria’s politics and state institutions continue to exclude rather than include.”
The commission’s patchy deployment of technology in the use of a Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), Chatham House stated, was still being intensely scrutinised and criticised.
“It failed to adhere to its own statements and guidelines, which derive from its laws, that election results would be uploaded to its portal using the BVAS directly from the polling unit in real-time for the public’s viewing,” Chatham House added regarding INEC.
Having just 23 per cent of the public’s trust going into the 2023 election, Chatham noted that the need for strict transparency by INEC in this crucial phase of electronic results transmission could not be overstated and should not be downplayed.
INEC’s sub-optimal performance, the organisation said, must be taken seriously because Nigeria’s path to recovery and stability must follow the way of accountability and electoral integrity.
It added that when sworn in, Tinubu would inherit a country made weaker economically, less secure, and diminished in stature under the leadership of his party.
Besides, Fitch explained that it believed that the low voter turnout of an estimated 29.0 per cent – the lowest turnout on record – at a time when voter enthusiasm was high, will give rise to the perception that widespread voter suppression took place.
A coalition of opposition parties led by PDP and LP, Fitch said, had already called for the cancellation and re-run of the election.
It added that statements by INEC, however, suggested that the institution would stand by the official results, with INEC officials having stated that allegations of electoral fraud were “unfounded and irresponsible” and that the results point to “a free, fair and credible process.”
The report said this suggested that there was limited appetite within the commission to hold new elections, noting that, indeed, holding a re-run would be extremely costly, as the commission’s 2023 election budget totalled N305 billion ($660 million) – likely discouraging a re-run.
Fitch stated that it expected that protests were likely over the short term, particularly in urban areas, such as Lagos, stressing that the Labour Party drew significant support from members of the #EndSars protest movement, which launched a series of protests in the commercial capital in 2020.
The Fitch report stated, “Given that several pre-election polls showed the Labour Party’s candidate winning the vote, we expect that the party’s youthful supporters are likely to be dissatisfied with the result.
“It is also possible that the Labour Party and PDP may boycott or disrupt gubernatorial elections scheduled for 11 March 2023. Much will depend on how Peter Obi and other opposition figures react over the coming days.
“Taking this into account, we have lowered Nigeria’s Social Stability score in our proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) to 17.5 out of 100, from 25.0 previously (lower score implies higher risk). This brings Nigeria’s overall STPRI from 42.1 to 40.2.
“Given Tinubu’s weak political mandate and widespread opposition to his government, we doubt that the incoming administration will launch any serious economic reforms in 2023.” Fitch further forecasted that inflation would average 18 per cent in 2023 – and Tinubu’s weak political mandate would discourage him from implementing strong economic reforms in the short term.
Fitch predicted., “Indeed, the liberalisation of Nigeria’s exchange rate regime and the removal of the fuel subsidy would put upside pressure to inflation and would likely lower the president’s already weak support base – something we believe Tinubu will seek to avoid.
“Indeed, given divisions within the legislature, widespread political opposition and concerns about the president-elect’s health, we expect a long period of political stasis.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/03/08/chatham-house-nigerias-presidential-election-not-conducted-in-line-with-inecs-guidelines/amp/ nlfpmod Seun 
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