#KogiDecides2023: THE FAVORITES, THE DARK HORSES

By Tonye Barcanista

According to the official data by INEC, 905,274 permanent voters cards are held in Kogi East, 496,790 in Kogi West, while Kogi Central controls 461,096 voters cards. This data means that Kogi East controls more than 49% of the entire political structure in the state, while the West and Central evenly shares the rest. In other words, a candidate may emerge Governor by winning overwhelmingly in just Kogi East at the governorship election.

The four popular candidates for Kogi State Governorship election are; Ahmed Ododo of the ruling All Progressives Congress(APC), Alhaji Muri Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Senator Dino Melaye of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Hon. Leke Abejide of African Democratic Congress (ADC).

While Ododo enjoys the support of outgoing Governor Alhaji Yahaya Bello and that of his Ebira kinsmen of Kogi Central, Ajaka is the popular candidate in Igala land of Kogi East - he appears to enjoy the support of a sizeable number of Igala population within and outside his party. Ajaka is perceived by his supporters as the consensus Igala candidate. Senator Dino Melaye (PDP) is a formidable politician and the PDP platform should naturally give him an advantage, but unfortunately he has Hon. Leke Abejide (ADC) to contend with for the votes of the Okun people of Kogi West. The ADC currently has two House of Representatives seats from Kogi West which the legitimately won at the 2023 election. The seats are; Kabba-Bunu/Ijumu and Yagba East-West/Mopamuro. The PDP currently has no representatuve at the Green Chamber from that axis. So to speak, ADC is the more dominant Party in Kogi West after APC (which controls the senatorial seat and a seat in the House of Representatives) if we are to go by the result of the 2023 election - but politics is not mathematics.

Furthermore, both Dino and Abejide are not just battling against each other for the Kogi west votes, they also battle the formidable APC structure in Kogi West.

For Yahaya Bello the outgoing Governor, his major headache is how to stop Muri Ajaka who appears to be the beautiful bride among the Igala people in favor of Ododo his anointed protégé. Luckily for Yahaya Bello, he has the support of some politicians from Igala within his government and at the local government level that he depends on. Should Ajaka sweep the entire Kogi East or win very comfortably in Kogi East, he may likely become the Governor irrespective of his performance in the other zones. How he can succeed in landslide victory in his Kogi East territory with the presence of the ruling APC structure remains to be seen.

While Ododo appears to be comfortable in Ebira land of Kogi Central, the presence of Senator Natasha Oduaghan at Dino's campaign may swing some votes to Dino, the PDP candidate. The significance of that will be determined at the poll on Saturday.

A win for Ahmed Ododo (APC) will not come as a surprise, neither will anyone be shocked should Muri Ajaka triumph over thr other contestants using the votes of the Igala people. What will come as a surprise is if Ajaka of SDP loses to Ododo of APC in Kogi east. Personally, my attention will be on Olamaboro LGA where Edward Onoja the state Deputy Governor hails from, a win for APC there may as well pave way for Ododo's triumph.

Meanwhile, the above opinion of mine should not be seen as foreclosing the chances of Senator Melaye and Hon. Abejide. The two illustrious sons of Kogi West are the dark horses in this race. Dino has a strong chance should he sweep the votes of Kogi West by landslide and manages to get significant votes in Kogi East (Igala land) and Central (Ebira land). His task is tough but not impossible considering the presence of Abejide (from Kogi West), Ododo (from Central with incumbent advantage) and Ajaka (from Kogi east) fully in the race, coupled with a fragmented PDP in the state.

As for Hon. Abejide, though the ADC is very strong in Kogi West, it is relatively unknown across other parts of the state. A win for him shall be recorded as one of the wonders of the world.

In summary, below are my observations:

Top Two Favorites To Win: Ahmed Ododo (APC) and Muri Ajaka (SDP).

Dark Horses In The Race: Dino Melaye (PDP) and Leke Abejide (ADC).

May the people of Kogi State succeed!

Ok....
I find this piece surprisingly balanced.
I hope Ajaka does not become Kwankwaso
I hope Abejide does not become Obi
I hope Dino does not become Atiku
APC needs to be kicked out of that state
They've been a plague
Enough is enough!!

DINO

Tonyebacanista anywhere belle face.

E be like say PDP did not pay you much this time around

This one you are beating around the bush

Afamed:
Tonyebacanista anywhere belle face.

E be like say PDP did not pay youv much this time around

This one you are beating around the bush

You no de tire?

Muri Ajaka will triumph

The election is between Ajaka and Ododo. Ajaka is the preferred and most popularly accepted candidate but his lack of formidable structure outside his senatorial district may be his undoing

Muri ajaka will win.

Afamed:
Tonyebacanista anywhere belle face.
E be like say PDP did not pay youv much this time around
This one you are beating around the bush

I dey tell you

Ajaka seems to have limit himself to his people while Yahaya has already plot people in his area to calve out something for Ododo. APC is the only party that can boast of getting something relatively ok from all nooks and crannies of the state and that is exactly what is needed to win.

TonyeBarcanista:
You no de tire?

I no dey tire to expose your double standard

PDP did not pay you much this time around

it will likely go into a run off. sdp & PDP

Ododo only need to won 30% of kogi east, and 30% from kogi west, to win the election..... 80% is surely for him in kogi central...... Natasha dear not go against the wish of the kogi central people...

IdisuleOurOwn:
Muri ajaka will win.

By God's grace!

alizma:
Ajaka seems to have limit himself to his people while Yahaya has already plot people in his area to calve out something for Ododo. APC is the only party that can boast of getting something relatively ok from all nooks and crannies of the state and that is exactly what is needed to win.

Do you even follow his campaign?

justified007:
The election is between Ajaka and Ododo. Ajaka is the preferred and most popularly accepted candidate but his lack of formidable structure outside his senatorial district may be his undoing

APGA won in Anambra without structure, mimiko did in Ondo with Labour, NNPP did in Kano without structure, AD did in SW in '99 without structure, SDP produced senators in Nasarawa in the last election without structure, Leke Abejide made ADC a force in kogi central, and Peter Obi made LP a national party without structure, etc. You know the common denomination here? The people - they're the structures.

BALLOSKI:
APGA won in Anambra without structure, mimiko did in Ondo with Labour, NNPP did in Kano without structure, AD did in SW in '99 without structure, SDP produced senators in Nasarawa in the last election without structure, Leke Abejide made ADC a force in kogi central, and Peter Obi made LP a national party without structure, etc. You know the common denomination here? The people - they're the structures.

Abeg, which shayo you dey take You deserve a bottle for this post. You don talk am finish!

MyMouth:

Abeg, which shayo you dey take You deserve a bottle for this post. You don talk am finish!

I dey combine milk and malt to cool down, my brother.

In M.I, Dino is technically out of the race

helinues:
Interesting

So you don't want to be useful this Man ?

helinues:
In M.I, Dino is technically out of the race

Ignore that nonentity above

Afamed:


Ignore that nonentity below

100% sure bro. We have a meaningful life here.

Long time boss

helinues:


100% sure bro. We have a meaningful life here.

Long time boss

Helinues look for a job and be useful with your life

helinues:


100% sure bro. We have a meaningful life here.

Long time boss

Long time my comrade

BALLOSKI:
APGA won in Anambra without structure, mimiko did in Ondo with Labour, NNPP did in Kano without structure, AD did in SW in '99 without structure, SDP produced senators in Nasarawa in the last election without structure, Leke Abejide made ADC a force in kogi central, and Peter Obi made LP a national party without structure, etc. You know the common denomination here? The people - they're the structures.

Your understanding of politics is funny 🤣🤣🤣.

How can you say APGA won in Anambra without structure when they have ojukwu who was the defacto leader of the Igbo nation as the chief promoter of APGA? Mimiko has always been in government for long and has been creating that structure for long and even at that it took the intervention of people like Tinubu that helped him retrieve the mandate.

Kwankwaso has always been the dominant political figure in Kano and his kwakwasiyya movement is the strongest in Kano state so it's wrong saying they don't have structures in Kano , AD won in the South West because they are like continuation of Awolowo/Afenifere movement and that's the movement that's been controlling the South West political landscape until a Tinubu happened to them .

PsTar2021:
Ododo only need to won 30% of kogi east, and 30% from kogi west, to win the election..... 80% is surely for him in kogi central...... Natasha dear not go against the wish of the kogi central people...

Ododo can not win, vote for ODODO in the East is a crime.. the strategy of yahaya Bello is to bring violence, I can assure you, any person trying that tomorrow is a dead person.. after the election we shall deal with ONOHA CP, Tossin Ajaye DG SSS, Nicholas Akeleje navy commander. We have documented their crime and we shall deal with them accordingly .

Kogi election may go into second round of voting as I don’t see a clear winner with the required spread emerging from the first ballot.

slivertongue:
it will likely go into a run off. sdp & PDP

You say?

slivertongue:
it will likely go into a run off. sdp & PDP

When will you stop vomitting rubbish.better confine yourseof to plateau? Dino is taking third

fergie001:

You say?

Ajaka might get the highest votes but won't get the spread.ododo and even dino will get the spread.it might go to a runoff between ododo and ajaka.what will help apc is their presence across the three zones

fergie001:

You say?

it is possible. if not for manipulations it will hard for a candidate to win in the first ballot.

seunmsg:
Kogi election may go into second round of voting as I don’t see a clear winner with the required spread emerging from the first ballot.

Kadoso Mutairu aka seunmsg! I knew it. You have gone to Kogi to go and monitor election. As you no kukuma get work naah.