The increase in tuition fees to a maximum of £9,000 a year has led to a “clear drop” in the number of English students applying for university places this autumn, an independent analysis of the impact of the coalition’s controversial reform has found. There are 15,000 “missing” applicants who might have been expected to have sought a place on a degree course this academic year but did not, according to the Independent Commission on Fees. The raising of fees prompted violent protests on the streets of London and inflicted deep damage on the reputation of the Liberal Democrats, who went into the election pledging to vote against a fee rise. Published a week before A-level results come out, the report says that the number of university applicants in England dropped by 8.8% this year compared with the tally for 2010. And there was a 7.2% fall in numbers of 18- and 19-year-old applicants in England between this year and 2010, the last year of applications before the cap on tuition fees was raised. The decline in England has not been mirrored in other parts of the UK where fees have not been raised, and the drop can only partly be explained by falling numbers of young people in the population, the commission says. Students from Scotland attending Scottish universities do not pay fees, while the Welsh assembly says it will pay fees above £3,465 for Welsh students attending UK institutions. Fees for students from Northern Ireland are also capped at £3,465. About one person in 20 who would have been expected to have applied to university this year (if the trend of increasing application rates among English school-leavers was maintained) did not do so, the report says. This equates to approximately 15,000 young applicants. The commission is chaired by Will Hutton, principal of Hertford College, Oxford, and a former Observer editor, and also includes Sir Peter Lampl, chairman of the Sutton Trust, Stephen Machin, professor of economics at University College London, and the journalist Libby Purves. Hutton said: “We’re asking our young men and women to assume more debt than any other country in the world – it’s higher than the average debt in the US. It’s not clear whether those lost this year will return to the fold next year, or [if] it’s a storm warning of a worrying trend.” The commission’s report says there does not seem to be a disproportionate impact on poorer or less advantaged communities. The commission found there was no significant change in the application rate to the most selective universities, such as Oxford or Cambridge. The average tuition fee at English universities this year is £8,385, rising to £8,507 next year. UK and EU students are entitled to take out government-backed loans to pay the fees. Hutton said: “Although it is too early to draw any firm conclusions, this study provides initial evidence that increased fees have an impact on application behaviour. There’s a clear drop in application numbers from English students when compared to their counterparts in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.