March 15 has long looked like the most pivotal date on the GOP primary calendar. And although Florida and Ohio are hogging the spotlight because they are the sites of Marco Rubio and John Kasich’s “last stands,” don’t forget that two other states could help Donald Trump become essentially unstoppable in his quest for the nomination: Illinois and Missouri.

Sure, far more delegates were at stake on Super Tuesday (595) than will be awarded March 15 (367), but the Super Tuesday delegates were all awarded proportionally. By the Republican National Committee’s rules, March 15 is the kickoff of the high-stakes winner-take-all season. Of the five states voting Tuesday1 — Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio — only North Carolina will truly award its delegates on a proportional basis, making it the least valuable prize of the night.

Florida and Ohio are hyped up not only because of their favorite sons (for good reason), but also because they are the only “true” winner-take-all states: The Florida winner will claim 99 delegates, and the Ohio winner will claim 66 — no ifs, ands or buts. However, Illinois and Missouri could functionally become winner-take-all too. Both states award their delegates on a congressional-district level. So if Trump (or someone else) sweeps their congressional districts, that candidate will win all the delegates. Together, Missouri and Illinois will award 121 delegates — which would go a long way in helping Trump stay “on track” for the nomination even if he loses either Florida or Ohio.

And so Illinois and Missouri are a big part of the reason Tuesday is such a huge fork in the road. If Trump sweeps Florida, Illinois, Missouri and Ohio, he will have at least 748 delegates and would need to win only 44 percent of all remaining delegates,2 a remarkably low bar, potentially ending the nomination fight.

If Trump loses Ohio but still wins Florida and sweeps Illinois and Missouri, he would need to win 50 percent of all other remaining delegates, a slightly higher bar but still very doable — and he would probably still be “on pace” for the nomination according to our delegate targets. But if Trump were to lose both Ohio and Florida, along with, let’s say, half of Illinois’s and Missouri’s districts, he could find himself needing to win 63 percent of remaining delegates to clinch the nomination, a much less plausible goal, considerably raising the odds of a contested convention in Cleveland.

Trump currently holds 462 delegates, 43 percent of the 1,065 delegates that have been at stake so far. But up until now, just 5 percent of all GOP delegates (the 50 Trump won in South Carolina) have been awarded on a winner-take-all basis. From March 15 forward, a whopping 64 percent of delegates will be awarded on a winner-take-all basis (39 percent based on statewide winners plus 25 percent based on district-level winners). This means continued Trump pluralities would be more than sufficient to earn him a majority of the 2,472 delegates by June.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-sleep-on-illinois-and-missouri-they-could-help-make-trump-unstoppable/

Hmm well, we shall see. FTC any way

We shall see

Trump is either tied with Kasich, or losing by 6 points to Kasich in the last two opinion polls in Ohio..

CFCman:
We shall see

Missouri and Illinois are Open primaries as well which give him a better chance of getting non republican votes.

At the end of the day thou, losing swing states like FL and OH will make him unelectable in November

Missy89:


Missouri and Illinois are Open primaries as well which give him a better chance of getting non republican votes.

At the end of the day thou, losing swing states like FL and OH will make him unelectable in November

I don't agree with the bolded. Both FL and OH are closed primaries, so his losing or winning on tomorrow in those states would have no bearing on how independents, or some Dems would vote in November. However, I agree, in general, that Trump would be unelectable in the general due to his high net-negativity ratings in hypothetical general election match-ups.

CFCman:


I don't agree with the bolded. Both FL and OH are closed primaries, so his losing or winning on tomorrow in those states would have no bearing on how independents, or some Dems would vote in November. However, I agree, in general, that Trump would be unelectable in the general due to his high net-negativity ratings in hypothetical general election match-ups.

If he cant win a close primary what makes you think he can win an open election in the same state since most of his victories so far are in the high 40s at best. Most republicans will probably sit out the election and his independent base wont be enough to win since they will be divided between both parties

But i guess we have to see the primary turnout first i guess