Understanding Russian President Vladimir Putin's mind & what will happen if Russia pulls out of Ukraine at this point of the war. All in 5 key points by Samson Oke


1 of 5:
Introduction:
To understand Putin's mind, is to try to think from his point of view, and that is exactly what this writeup is all about.



Let's start with NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), a military alliance among countries in 1949, created and exist to 'defend' member countries against Russia.
This 'defense' has subtly turned to 'offence' over the years by the continuous expansion and admission of other countries into the military alliance even beyond the 'North Atlantic' and to make matters worse, is the romance and admission of Russian's neighboring countries, and from that point, the seamlessly harmless 'defense' started turning into offense all of a sudden. Knowing fully well that NATO don't just admit members, they sometimes also deploy some sort of missile launch facilities in such countries which of course makes launching their own type of missile from that point/front possible.


What we need to understand is that most technologically sophisticated countries have a missile defense system that shields the country when missiles are thrown at them. Russia has exclaimed in the past that their defense system effectiveness will be threatened, if a missile is launched from a close range, and Russia even went on to request that NATO should give them an assurance that missile launch facilities deployment will not be done in the close neighbor countries of Russia if such country decides to join NATO. NATO however, said they cannot make such promises, Russia again protested to have NATO stop its expansion to Russia's neighbor countries, again, this legitimate concern were outrightly ignored, one of the most recent of this protest by Russia was in November 2021.


Now let's retrace our steps, a military alliance created during the 'war era', created to defend themselves against possible attack from Russia, starts to make 'gentle moves' that put Russian defense at serious risk and also, it is not doing anything to prove that there is no ulterior motive, and then, we expect Russia to not react.


At this point, I should state that this whole move by NATO has played out before in history, during Cuba missile crisis in 1962, where Cuba which is a neighbor-country to US, was a close ally of Russia, and then Russia constructed missile launch facilities in Cuba, which were said to be effectively targeting most of the US ground and were almost launched before the then US President, Kennedy, was alerted and had to negotiate with Russia to have them removed from Cuba. Also noting that US also deployed similar missiles in Italy and Turkey against Russia during the period.

The question now is, how will you react if you see your history-experience being played out again against you?



2 of 5:
What would happen if Ukraine successfully joined NATO?

Then NATO may decide to deploy long-range missiles in Ukraine, as they have done with Poland and Romania, and this will forever put Russia at their mercy. This situation is a situation no country wants to be in, talk less of a superpower country like Russia, I need to say that US will do worst if they ever find themselves in a situation where their supposed enemy is trying to 'camp' at their backyard.


3 of 5:
The situation after the first Russian invasion of Ukraine:

It is important to note that though Putin said that they (Russia) were prepared for any consequence, it is obvious now that they were not really ready for the "economic war" but then they have already drawn the first blood with Ukraine in the plan to prevent anything that will undermine Russia's safety in the future, after their initial warning fell on deaf ears. So, the question is:



4 of 5
What happens if Russia suddenly retreat?

1. The sanctions already in place by US and UK will still not be taken off:
This is because of what of an aggressive tactic I call CPT (The Continuous Punishment Tactic), a psychological process, where the 'punisher' elongates the punishment or suffering beyond the normal cause, to ensure that the 'punished' will never ever attempt in the future, to take the action or inaction that resulted to the punishment in the first place.

In a nutshell, what this means is that whether Russia retreat or not, the sanction is here to stay for a significant period.

2. The Ukraine-NATO agreement will quickly then be sealed for three reasons:

A. The retreat will be perceived as a strong sign of weakness from Russia, which NATO-Ukraine will want to capitalize on

B. Ukrainians has now seen more reason to join NATO, in other to avoid such invasion in the future (this of course, will be an unintended outcome for Russia, which is a very similar situation that played out with US and Cuba relationship up to cold war)

C. Ukrainians will want revenge:
The idea is, even if NATO (after Ukraine joins) does not attack Russia now, they know it’s only a matter of time before the confrontation between the two parties will happen, and they will gladly love to be the hand or part of the hand to be used to put the common enemy to his knees or to slaughter (another similar situation with US- Cuba relationship up to cold war).


3. In war, it is a fact that whoever budges first or surrenders will pay dearly for losing, therefore Russia will be placed on conditions that will be so humiliating, that it will never again be seen as a world power in years to come.

The conditions might include and not limited to:
A. Russia will lose its annex and even part of its original territory
B. Russia will be heavily fined
C. US and UK will request that Putin be extradited for his 'crimes' in Ukraine
D. The existing sanctions will still not be removed until they make sure every single Russian dignity is gone.



5 of 5
Is there NATO’s agenda in all of these?

With NATO'S budding romance with Ukraine, it will be hilarious to hear that NATO was not expecting a reaction from Russia, and if they were expecting a reaction, then it could be that this whole Russia invasion was masterminded by NATO just to display Russia as 'the devil in action' that their campaign has talked about since their creation, and this will of course trigger more countries to join NATO and further isolate Russia.

Written by Profstar.

If only russia have more influence in africa i think nato would have think twice before trying this nonsense

Pick a world map and look into it and if you don't have one google it from the Internet, Finland is a country that share a boundary with Russia, is Finland part of Nato? No they are not, the haven't been confrontation between russia and finland, why can't Russia and ukraine live same way without ukraine having to join NATO, let Russian try to form a military alliance with cuba or mexico who share borders with USA let's see if they USA would not retaliate to stop it immediately, we live in a world were the west do the thinking for us, thereby confusing the world from actually trying to solve the problem from the root cause of the conflict, alliance form primarily as an anti-Russia body(NATO) Is what the president of ukraine is publicly claiming to want to join,and you expect your neighbor who is listening to allow you to just join right? I am against this ongoing war because innocent life's are the ones suffering for the leaders stupid decision's and no one deserve to die I pray the war end soon please

At this point, Ukraine needs to be totally destroyed. Her citizens can live like the Palestinians.

Sadr:
At this point, Ukraine needs to be totally destroyed. Her citizens can live like the Palestinians.

Are you human at all

I still don't understand why Russia doesn't want to carpet bomb Kyiv

Cptflint:

Are you human at all

I was shocked to see his post too
If he is human, is he normal atall

Cptflint:
I still don't understand why Russia doesn't want to carpet bomb Kyiv

Please let's not derail this thread. Thank you.