Hi everyone good afternoon. Candidates for the major political parties have started emerging with the PDP choosing Atiku Abubakar being chosen again as its presidential flag bearer. Next year's election looks like it's going to be one of those unpredictable contests.

I will attempt to do an analysis of the likely voting patterns for next year and give an educated guess as to how the presidential elections will turn out. My analysis is obviously subjective based on my reading of current political permutations and results of past elections.

I will be restricting myself to the candidates aspirants of the main political parties and the most promising 3rd force candidate.

I will start with the APC. Since they haven't done their primaries yet I will analyse the chances of the 4 top candidates Yemi Osinbajo, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Rotimi Ameachi and Goodluck Jonathan (should they inexplicably choose the former president).

PYO

I expect the VP to deliver block votes from the SW. The SS, NC and NE will be keenly fought battle ground regions but I think he has advantage based on sentiments that the presidency should shift back to the south and the fact that he's a Christian should help with voters in the NC and parts of the NE. For the NW PYO doesn't have the structure to carry the region so will have to rely on political juggernauts in the zone. An El-Rufai as VP candidate would help greatly with Kaduna while PMB influence should help with Katsina. Other states in the region will be keenly fought for however the fact that APC governors in charge of most of the states are also seeking re-election would mean that would work in PYO's favor of getting some significant votes in the area. SE won't be easy due to the IPOB matter, strength of the PDP in the region plus Peter Obi presidential run, but who knows maybe a combination of Ebonyi, Imo and possible Anambra votes could help PYO snatch a surprise win in the region however I won't hold my breath.

Verdict: Osinbajo has a very good path to victory. He would win the SW and SS regions very well. NC will be close but he will also win there. He will most likely not carry the NW zone but will get significant votes. I think he will also win NE (just!). For SE a combination of the Peter Obi factor, IPOB hostilities meaning low voter turn and political structure of the PDP in the SE will make it hard for PYO to win here but won't have much affecting a likely Osinbajo victory in the elections.

BAT

Tinubu will also carry the SW without much sweat although I expect some sorosoke crew and peter obi fans to reduce his margin of victory in Lagos. SS will be tough but the Jagaban has many allies in that region who could help secure victory plus sentiments of the turn of a southern presidency should play in his favor. I think NW is a region BAT could realistically win too. He will match Atiku in mobilizing the political structures in those areas plus him being a muslim should also help in his favor. NE is also winnable but he will struggle in significant Christian communities in this region because identity politics is really strong here. Despite these difficulties he will still shade it in the NE. NC is a potential weak spot due to the high number of Christians in this region. A VP candidate could reduce the margin of defeat but it will still be a mountain too high for the Jagaban unless political gladiators in the region come through for him. SE will be difficult identify politics plus other factors mentioned in the analysis for PYO will make this region a no go area for Tinubu.

Verdict: BAT would also most likely win the elections if he chooses a Christian VP. Muslim-muslim ticket is an absolute no no. Tinubu will deliver the SW bloc though I expect Lagos to be slightly stubborn. NW and NE will be a battle but he can realistically do it. SS will also possible go to Tinubu. NC will be tough while SE is not within his reach but overall outlook is good for a BAT victory.

Rotimi Ameachi

The former Rivers state governor will have it all to do if he some how gets the APC ticket. SS should be in the bag but he shouldn't take it for granted that because he's from there he will get almost automatic support. SE similar challenges like I mentioned for the previous candidates but he could pull a surprise in this region but highly unlikely. SW due to southern presidency sentiments could realistically play in his favor but he will have to work his socks off to earn their trust. NC could also be a potential fertile zone for Ameachi. Minority factor and Christian identity could seriously boost him. NW and NE will be very hard for him to navigate except for the Christian minority areas in Kaduna, Gombe, Bauchi and Borno but even that is no guarantee. Only thing that might help is I don't think Atiku will be able to mobilize enough voters like PMB in his heyday to absolutely trounce Rotimi. Will elaborate on this when discussing Atiku later.

Verdict: Ameachi wins the presidential election but by the skin of his teeth.

GEJ

I honestly don't sincerely believe the APC will give Goodluck Jonathan the presidential ticket but should they do it will be an absolute disaster. The SW if just to register their protest will never go for GEJ plus the still strong sentiments he didn't do much for the region. SE that was his stronghold in former elections is longer in play due to the reasons I stated for other APC aspirants. SS yes will be a stronghold but not sure it will deliver block votes like before. NC could offer some hope but has he built any strong alliance with political gladiators in that area to boost his chances? Your guess is as good as mine. NW and NE will be a complete drubbing no caps.

Verdict: GEJ will lose bigly if the APC makes the ridiculous decision to field him. His presidency is still not remembered fondly by many plus the real politik of the regions that were his support base have changed drastically. I can dash him SS but I'm at a loss as to how he will win in other regions.

Now let's examine Atiku Abubakars chances

AA

The former VP president has deep pockets to mobilize PDP structures in all the regions. NW is his strongest base. The northern muslim sentiment will play in his favor. Same for NE but not too a big extent. SW is a go area for him. From the influence of Tinubu and PYO, to his former oga OBJ plus Oyo governor Makinde it will be near impossible to make headway in SW. SS southern presidency sentiments will be difficult to over come. His strongest trump card would have been Wike but I don't think the Rivers strong man would be motivated to help someone who has given him 2 back to back Ls. NC will be a battle field but I think the opposition has the stronger generals in their corner. In the SE I surprisingly think Atiku could carry this zone but the number of votes will be too insignificant because I expect Peter Obi and the APC depending on who is their candidate to wittle down whatever margin of victory in that zone.

Verdict: It will be a hard fought but narrow loss for Abubakar. As much as he will win the NW and maybe NE Atiku doesn't have the personality that can inspire fanatical supporters who will come out enmasse on election day. To beat the incumbent party you need to get millions of votes out. Yes his money might help but the kind of numbers he will need to oust the incumbent party sadly can't be bought by money. Southern presidency sentiments, identity politics and general perception as being highly corrupt will seriously hamper him. If he faces PYO, BAT and Ameachi he will lose only the margins of defeat will defer. The only hope he has is for APC to put GEJ up.

3rd force Kwakwansho and Peter Obi look to be the candidates who will fly the 3rd flag this time.

ARK

Will do well in in NW but won't win. Unknown in other regions to really make a realistic dent.

Verdict: Will most definitely not win.

Peter Obi

Has a growing fanatical voter base especially of SE origin. Not as well known outside the SE except amongst Ibo communities in other regions.

Verdict: Won't win any region but will get many votes in the SE and other commercial cities especially ones with huge Ibo populations like Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt.

That's my analysis guys so what do you think? Have any contrary views? Please feel free to drop your thoughts and opinions. Please this piece is meant to encourage debate and intellectual discuss. No room for abuse or insults please. Differing opinions will always be welcome

ccAndrewbaba44, Kyase, Donjazet, BlueRayDick, MikoB, GeneralDae, Larride, Seunmg, Passingshot, Omenka, Garfield1 your contributions to this topic will be highly appreciated

chrisooblog:
Hi everyone good afternoon. Candidates for the major political parties have started emerging with the PDP choosing Atiku Abubakar being chosen again as its presidential flag bearer. Next year's election looks like it's going to be one of those unpredictable contests.

I will attempt to do an analysis of the likely voting patterns for next year and give an educated guess as to how the presidential elections will turn out. My analysis is obviously subjective based on my reading of current political permutations and results of past elections.

I will be restricting myself to the candidates aspirants of the main political parties and the most promising 3rd force candidate.

I will start with the APC. Since they haven't done their primaries yet I will analyse the chances of the 4 top candidates Yemi Osinbajo, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Rotimi Ameachi and Goodluck Jonathan (should they inexplicably choose the former president).

PYO

I expect the VP to deliver block votes from the SW. The SS, NC and NE will be keenly fought battle ground regions but I think he has advantage based on sentiments that the presidency should shift back to the south and the fact that he's a Christian should help with voters in the NC and parts of the NE. For the NW PYO doesn't have the structure to carry the region so will have to rely on political juggernauts in the zone. An El-Rufai as VP candidate would help greatly with Kaduna while PMB influence should help with Katsina. Other states in the region will be keenly fought for however the fact that APC governors in charge of most of the states are also seeking re-election would mean that would work in PYO's favor of getting some significant votes in the area. SE won't be easy due to the IPOB matter, strength of the PDP in the region plus Peter Obi presidential run, but who knows maybe a combination of Ebonyi, Imo and possible Anambra votes could help PYO snatch a surprise win in the region however I won't hold my breath.

Verdict: Osinbajo has a very good path to victory. He would win the SW and SS regions very well. NC will be close but he will also win there. He will most likely not carry the NW zone but will get significant votes. I think he will also win NE (just!). For SE a combination of the Peter Obi factor, IPOB hostilities meaning low voter turn and political structure of the PDP in the SE will make it hard for PYO to win here but won't have much affecting a likely Osinbajo victory in the elections.

BAT

Tinubu will also carry the SW without much sweat although I expect some sorosoke crew and peter obi fans to reduce his margin of victory in Lagos. SS will be tough but the Jagaban has many allies in that region who could help secure victory plus sentiments of the turn of a southern presidency should play in his favor. I think NW is a region BAT could realistically win too. He will match Atiku in mobilizing the political structures in those areas plus him being a muslim should also help in his favor. NE is also winnable but he will struggle in significant Christian communities in this region because identity politics is really strong here. Despite these difficulties he will still shade it in the NE. NC is a potential weak spot due to the high number of Christians in this region. A VP candidate could reduce the margin of defeat but it will still be a mountain too high for the Jagaban unless political gladiators in the region come through for him. SE will be difficult identify politics plus other factors mentioned in the analysis for PYO will make this region a no go area for Tinubu.

Verdict: BAT would also most likely win the elections if he chooses a Christian VP. Muslim-muslim ticket is an absolute no no. Tinubu will deliver the SW bloc though I expect Lagos to be slightly stubborn. NW and NE will be a battle but he can realistically do it. SS will also possible go to Tinubu. NC will be tough while SE is not within his reach but overall outlook is good for a BAT victory.

Rotimi Ameachi

The former Rivers state governor will have it all to do if he some how gets the APC ticket. SS should be in the bag but he shouldn't take it for granted that because he's from there he will get almost automatic support. SE similar challenges like I mentioned for the previous candidates but he could pull a surprise in this region but highly unlikely. SW due to southern presidency sentiments could realistically play in his favor but he will have to work his socks off to earn their trust. NC could also be a potential fertile zone for Ameachi. Minority factor and Christian identity could seriously boost him. NW and NE will be very hard for him to navigate except for the Christian minority areas in Kaduna, Gombe, Bauchi and Borno but even that is no guarantee. Only thing that might help is I don't think Atiku will be able to mobilize enough voters like PMB in his heyday to absolutely trounce Rotimi. Will elaborate on this when discussing Atiku later.

Verdict: Ameachi wins the presidential election but by the skin of his teeth.

GEJ

I honestly don't sincerely believe the APC will give Goodluck Jonathan the presidential ticket but should they do it will be an absolute disaster. The SW if just to register their protest will never go for GEJ plus the still strong sentiments he didn't do much for the region. SE that was his stronghold in former elections is longer in play due to the reasons I stated for other APC aspirants. SS yes will be a stronghold but not sure it will deliver block votes like before. NC could offer some hope but has he built any strong alliance with political gladiators in that area to boost his chances? Your guess is as good as mine. NW and NE will be a complete drubbing no caps.

Verdict: GEJ will lose bigly if the APC makes the ridiculous decision to field him. His presidency is still not remembered fondly by many plus the real politik of the regions that were his support base have changed drastically. I can dash him SS but I'm at a loss as to how he will win in other regions.

Now let's examine Atiku Abubakars chances

AA

The former VP president has deep pockets to mobilize PDP structures in all the regions. NW is his strongest base. The northern muslim sentiment will play in his favor. Same for NE but not too a big extent. SW is a go area for him. From the influence of Tinubu and PYO, to his former oga OBJ plus Oyo governor Makinde it will be near impossible to make headway in SW. SS southern presidency sentiments will be difficult to over come. His strongest trump card would have been Wike but I don't think the Rivers strong man would be motivated to help someone who has given him 2 back to back Ls. NC will be a battle field but I think the opposition has the stronger generals in their corner. In the SE I surprisingly think Atiku could carry this zone but the number of votes will be too insignificant because I expect Peter Obi and the APC depending on who is their candidate to wittle down whatever margin of victory in that zone.

Verdict: It will be a hard fought but narrow loss for Abubakar. As much as he will win the NW and maybe NE Atiku doesn't have the personality that can inspire fanatical supporters who will come out enmasse on election day. To beat the incumbent party you need to get millions of votes out. Yes his money might help but the kind of numbers he will need to oust the incumbent party sadly can't be bought by money. Southern presidency sentiments, identity politics and general perception as being highly corrupt will seriously hamper him. If he faces PYO, BAT and Ameachi he will lose only the margins of defeat will defer. The only hope he has is for APC to put GEJ up.

3rd force Kwakwansho and Peter Obi look to be the candidates who will fly the 3rd flag this time.

ARK

Will do well in in NW but won't win. Unknown in other regions to really make a realistic dent.

Verdict: Will most definitely not win.

Peter Obi

Has a growing fanatical voter base especially of SE origin. Not as well known outside the SE except amongst Ibo communities in other regions.

Verdict: Won't win any region but will get many votes in the SE and other commercial cities especially ones with huge Ibo populations like Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt.

That's my analysis guys so what do you think? Have any contrary views? Please feel free to drop your thoughts and opinions. Please this piece is meant to encourage debate and intellectual discuss. No room for abuse or insults please. Differing opinions will always be welcome

ccAndrewbaba44, Kyase, Donjazet, BlueRayDick, MikoB, GeneralDae, Larride, Seunmg, Passingshot, Omenka, Garfield1 your contributions to this topic will be highly appreciated

I think it's still too early to make winning permutations. Soo much alignments and realignments can occur between now and January.
The most important thing is to energize everyone to have their PVCs.

It's going to be PYO Vs AA

Ok o

It's too early to start any permutation. Let us have the presidential candidates and their running makes then you can make the permutations.

Toh

Osinbajo VS Atiku

chrisooblog:
Hi everyone good afternoon. Candidates for the major political parties have started emerging with the PDP choosing Atiku Abubakar being chosen again as its presidential flag bearer. Next year's election looks like it's going to be one of those unpredictable contests.

I will attempt to do an analysis of the likely voting patterns for next year and give an educated guess as to how the presidential elections will turn out. My analysis is obviously subjective based on my reading of current political permutations and results of past elections.

I will be restricting myself to the candidates aspirants of the main political parties and the most promising 3rd force candidate.

I will start with the APC. Since they haven't done their primaries yet I will analyse the chances of the 4 top candidates Yemi Osinbajo, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Rotimi Ameachi and Goodluck Jonathan (should they inexplicably choose the former president).

PYO

I expect the VP to deliver block votes from the SW. The SS, NC and NE will be keenly fought battle ground regions but I think he has advantage based on sentiments that the presidency should shift back to the south and the fact that he's a Christian should help with voters in the NC and parts of the NE. For the NW PYO doesn't have the structure to carry the region so will have to rely on political juggernauts in the zone. An El-Rufai as VP candidate would help greatly with Kaduna while PMB influence should help with Katsina. Other states in the region will be keenly fought for however the fact that APC governors in charge of most of the states are also seeking re-election would mean that would work in PYO's favor of getting some significant votes in the area. SE won't be easy due to the IPOB matter, strength of the PDP in the region plus Peter Obi presidential run, but who knows maybe a combination of Ebonyi, Imo and possible Anambra votes could help PYO snatch a surprise win in the region however I won't hold my breath.

Verdict: Osinbajo has a very good path to victory. He would win the SW and SS regions very well. NC will be close but he will also win there. He will most likely not carry the NW zone but will get significant votes. I think he will also win NE (just!). For SE a combination of the Peter Obi factor, IPOB hostilities meaning low voter turn and political structure of the PDP in the SE will make it hard for PYO to win here but won't have much affecting a likely Osinbajo victory in the elections.

BAT

Tinubu will also carry the SW without much sweat although I expect some sorosoke crew and peter obi fans to reduce his margin of victory in Lagos. SS will be tough but the Jagaban has many allies in that region who could help secure victory plus sentiments of the turn of a southern presidency should play in his favor. I think NW is a region BAT could realistically win too. He will match Atiku in mobilizing the political structures in those areas plus him being a muslim should also help in his favor. NE is also winnable but he will struggle in significant Christian communities in this region because identity politics is really strong here. Despite these difficulties he will still shade it in the NE. NC is a potential weak spot due to the high number of Christians in this region. A VP candidate could reduce the margin of defeat but it will still be a mountain too high for the Jagaban unless political gladiators in the region come through for him. SE will be difficult identify politics plus other factors mentioned in the analysis for PYO will make this region a no go area for Tinubu.

Verdict: BAT would also most likely win the elections if he chooses a Christian VP. Muslim-muslim ticket is an absolute no no. Tinubu will deliver the SW bloc though I expect Lagos to be slightly stubborn. NW and NE will be a battle but he can realistically do it. SS will also possible go to Tinubu. NC will be tough while SE is not within his reach but overall outlook is good for a BAT victory.

Rotimi Ameachi

The former Rivers state governor will have it all to do if he some how gets the APC ticket. SS should be in the bag but he shouldn't take it for granted that because he's from there he will get almost automatic support. SE similar challenges like I mentioned for the previous candidates but he could pull a surprise in this region but highly unlikely. SW due to southern presidency sentiments could realistically play in his favor but he will have to work his socks off to earn their trust. NC could also be a potential fertile zone for Ameachi. Minority factor and Christian identity could seriously boost him. NW and NE will be very hard for him to navigate except for the Christian minority areas in Kaduna, Gombe, Bauchi and Borno but even that is no guarantee. Only thing that might help is I don't think Atiku will be able to mobilize enough voters like PMB in his heyday to absolutely trounce Rotimi. Will elaborate on this when discussing Atiku later.

Verdict: Ameachi wins the presidential election but by the skin of his teeth.

GEJ

I honestly don't sincerely believe the APC will give Goodluck Jonathan the presidential ticket but should they do it will be an absolute disaster. The SW if just to register their protest will never go for GEJ plus the still strong sentiments he didn't do much for the region. SE that was his stronghold in former elections is longer in play due to the reasons I stated for other APC aspirants. SS yes will be a stronghold but not sure it will deliver block votes like before. NC could offer some hope but has he built any strong alliance with political gladiators in that area to boost his chances? Your guess is as good as mine. NW and NE will be a complete drubbing no caps.

Verdict: GEJ will lose bigly if the APC makes the ridiculous decision to field him. His presidency is still not remembered fondly by many plus the real politik of the regions that were his support base have changed drastically. I can dash him SS but I'm at a loss as to how he will win in other regions.

Now let's examine Atiku Abubakars chances

AA

The former VP president has deep pockets to mobilize PDP structures in all the regions. NW is his strongest base. The northern muslim sentiment will play in his favor. Same for NE but not too a big extent. SW is a go area for him. From the influence of Tinubu and PYO, to his former oga OBJ plus Oyo governor Makinde it will be near impossible to make headway in SW. SS southern presidency sentiments will be difficult to over come. His strongest trump card would have been Wike but I don't think the Rivers strong man would be motivated to help someone who has given him 2 back to back Ls. NC will be a battle field but I think the opposition has the stronger generals in their corner. In the SE I surprisingly think Atiku could carry this zone but the number of votes will be too insignificant because I expect Peter Obi and the APC depending on who is their candidate to wittle down whatever margin of victory in that zone.

Verdict: It will be a hard fought but narrow loss for Abubakar. As much as he will win the NW and maybe NE Atiku doesn't have the personality that can inspire fanatical supporters who will come out enmasse on election day. To beat the incumbent party you need to get millions of votes out. Yes his money might help but the kind of numbers he will need to oust the incumbent party sadly can't be bought by money. Southern presidency sentiments, identity politics and general perception as being highly corrupt will seriously hamper him. If he faces PYO, BAT and Ameachi he will lose only the margins of defeat will defer. The only hope he has is for APC to put GEJ up.

3rd force Kwakwansho and Peter Obi look to be the candidates who will fly the 3rd flag this time.

ARK

Will do well in in NW but won't win. Unknown in other regions to really make a realistic dent.

Verdict: Will most definitely not win.

Peter Obi

Has a growing fanatical voter base especially of SE origin. Not as well known outside the SE except amongst Ibo communities in other regions.

Verdict: Won't win any region but will get many votes in the SE and other commercial cities especially ones with huge Ibo populations like Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt.

That's my analysis guys so what do you think? Have any contrary views? Please feel free to drop your thoughts and opinions. Please this piece is meant to encourage debate and intellectual discuss. No room for abuse or insults please. Differing opinions will always be welcome

ccAndrewbaba44, Kyase, Donjazet, BlueRayDick, MikoB, GeneralDae, Larride, Seunmg, Passingshot, Omenka, Garfield1 your contributions to this topic will be highly appreciated

You are point on your analysis, with Atiku as pdp flag bearer, it will be easier for any southern apc candidate to beat him, especially Osinbajo and Amaechi, if they could have the sincere support of Buhari and other northern apc big boys.

Amaechi has no chance against Atiku. This is going to be a tough race and it needs strategy to navigate. You need a candidate that can first secure his entire region before going to battle votes from other regions. Amaechi can not win the south south for you Apc but Tinubu or Osinbajo can secure all the states in the south west and that will be a great start.

As it stands now, the election is Atiku's to lose

With BAT emerging as the APC flag bearer I agree that Atiku is likely the favorite now. A lot can still happen between now and february next year but Tinubu has his work cut out for him. Big shout out to PYO he did his best but that's democracy for you. The majority choice is not always the best choice

Kyase:
As it stands now, the election is Atiku's to lose