Tinubu has a challenger in his backyard as Peter Obi who has certain factors against him, 1) same religion tickets as 70 percents christians would punish him for that and give Obi their votes. 2) campaign DG of Tinubu said the Yoruba CHRISTIANS are just 30%< if it is anything to go by, it means Yoruba Christians are minority and their votes are just too little. Yoruba muslems are fully behind Tinubu is life and death. 3) most Yoruba youths are not happy with him as they think he is old and sick and he has been a Lord in their land with some pocket of signs, this would work against him, at the end , what Obi needs in the entire South West is 25 to 30% votes as South West is a battle ground for him.

Coming to South East and South South, both Tinubu and Atiku can't get 20% votes in this areas and that is 11 states. In case you don't know, these states would vote massively because they think their own is contesting. Unless the politicians in those areas empowers youths to destroy polling centers, tb bumps and threaten these two zones not to come out and vote. But for South West,Atiku can't get up to ten percent votes, what this means is that Atiku is out of this game.

Coming to North Central, Obi has better chances in Abuja, Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi, Niger and Kwara. Obi would cross 25% votes in Kwara but may not defeat Tinubu in Kwara due to muslems votes, Imams in Kwara will tell them to vote Tinubu. In Niger, Obi would get up to 40 percent votes while tinubu and Atiku shares 60%. Reason is simple, large CHRISTIANS in Niger, large Igbo population or presence, campaign by churches, youths influence from Abuja. Both APC and PDP would apply tribes and religion to campaign against LP in North central to muslems. In Nassarawa, LP would take at least 50 to 60% votes due to same religion, Igbo, non Nassarawan populations in that state and youths influence. in Kogi, it would be 60% LP as those half christians populations in that state would go Labour while few Muslems there too are going Labour too. Tinubu and Atiku would share 40% there. So, North central is tough for both APC and PDP with these two parties not getting 25% in Benue, Plateau, Abuja, and Kogi. What happens in NC will determine the winner of the election. So, Obi is coming into the race with SE, SS on at least 90 percent, NC on at least 60 percent and SW on at least 30%.

For North East,LP would take TARRABA at 70 percent , Adamawa at 30 percent and Gombe at 50 percent. His chances in other 3 states would be below 25%. The three states I mentioned now have large and crazy Christian populations. Don't joke with that factor.

In North West, LP would take only Kaduna. Kaduna is in two parts, christian south and muslem North. The christians South would vote LP by 90% while Muslem North would bring in like ten percent due to Datti, Obi's VP, that would give Obi the chance to take Kaduna state. Obi may get up to 20 to 25% in Sokoto and Kano, up to or less than ten percent in Bauchi, and Borno.
Who are campaigning in this?
1) Imams, but their dilemma is that they have 3 muslems, and their entire muslem votes nationwide would be split.
2) pastors, for the first time, churches are turning their alters to campaign ground and almost all churches in SS and SE are fully locked for LP, churches in South West are 70 percent speaking to promote LP. Churches in NC are fully locked for LP and if christians population should come out and vote, then no body can defeat their candidate.
3) religion, it would be extremely difficult for a muslem to vote for LP though some muslems would vote LP, Yoruba muslems are fully behind Tinubu, almost 30% christians too. In North, choice of Shettima has weakened Atiku's clear chances but Atiku would win majority muslem votes in NC, NE and NW with Tinubu coming second and Kwankwaso third , that is, if Kwankwaso doesn't step down for Tinubu. Na, if muslem votes in Northern Nigeria is 100% 55% goes to Atiku, 35% goes to Tinubu and ten percent to others. For LP, they would sweep the entire christian votes by 90 percent while ten is left for others in both SE and SS. In South West, it would take 70% percent Christian votes while Tinubu gets almost 30% with Atiku less than 5%. In NC, LP would take 85% christian votes while 15% goes to Atiku and Tinubu. In North East, LP would take 90% christian votes in TARRABA, Gombe, Borno, Bauchi and NW , it would take 90% christian votes in Sokoto, Kano and Kaduna.
4) Tribe. It is much easier for someone in SS to vote a competent SE candidate than a competent NE or NW or SW candidates. Tribally, SE and SS would vote Obi by 90% and above. By tribe, NW and NE largely by its muslems would vote Atiku by 70% and vote Tinubu by 30% as someone who have helped North under Buhari. In SW, yorubas would vote at least 70% by tribe.only NC is neautral on this except Niger and Kwara.
5) Youths and Age. This factor would make it hard for Tinubu to coast home easily in SW. Age and youths factor would make him dangle with 60 to 70% instead of 90 to 95% LP would get in SE and SS. Age and youths would also work against Atiku in NC.
6) insecurity. Especially Atiku, insecurity would make it hard for NC and Christians in the North to trust him as they see him as Northern Fulani muslem.

Look at this. LP has SS, SE,NC, TARRABA,Gombe, bit Adamawa. Kaduna, bit Sokoto and Kano

APC has the entire SW by 70% , NC by less than or 25% NE and NW at 35 to 40%.
PDP has SW at less than 10% ,NC at 30%, NE and NW at 55%

Next year's election may not produce more than 40 million votes despite youths awakening. But 40M shows progress. How do I mean? New PVC is between ten to 12M, replacement and transfer is like 8 to ten Million votes, it you add all, it is like 20M, add 20 to 25M as obtained last election , you may have between 40 to 45M. Subtract riggings which card reader and manual voting through incidence forms brought and voter aparthy that may occur in some core Northern states, then you would have highest 40M voting.
Out of this 40M, SE would have the least votes of 4 to 4.6M, SS would have 6 to 6.5M, SW would have like 6to 7M, NC, 6 to 6.7M , North East 6 to 6.4M and NW 8 to 9M votes.
LP may go home with 15 to 19M votes, APC 12 to 13 M and PDP 7 to 8M votes.

See this shocker, APC and PDP may not get up to 25% in 24 states, let's starts from PDP, Atiku is seen as injustice to the entire Southern Nigeria and they would punish him for that , his party too has internal wrangles, PDP would loose SE, SS and SW, 17 states off already, meaning he would be left with 19 Northern States, he can't scale through in Benue, Plateau, TARRABA,Kaduna, Kogi, Kwara.

For APC, SE and SS is off. Meaning APC is left with 6 in SW. APC may get 25% in NW and NE making it 18 states, in North central they would likely get 25% in Nassarawa, Kogi and Kwara, may be, just may be Niger, making it 22 states and off by two states as Benue, Plateau, TARRABA, Gombe can't give it to APC.
LP would likely get 25% in all 17 Southern states and 6 in NC making it total of 22 states, then Kaduna, TARRABA, Gombe, Adamawa and may be, just may be, Sokoto, making it 26 to 27 states. Only Labour comfortably cross this line.

Dear Nigerians , I don't need a prophet or prophecy to know this. I am fully on ground and in the field. I know what is happening in many states.

I believe the election would be free and fair (due to BVAS machines, absence of manual voting through incidence forms and electronic transmission from polling units) and if it does, APC and PDP can't win this election.
I won't comment on LP national assembly candidates, too hard for me to call bur take it, as it stands, LP is far from winning here. Labour would surely win NASS especially in Abuja, win some state govs like Abia, Benue, plateau and some states like Lagos ,that is, if Tinubu looses Lagos in Presidency.
LP=first
APC=second
PDP= third
My own fair Judgement from my political studies for the past 18 years.
Please, APC, PDP and LP, don't look down on the following:
1) the power of the social media,
2) the power of the churches, so long as Christian states are concerned, the church is the highest grassroot mobilizer.
3) the power of the youths,nobody convince people more in any election than them
4) competence and capacity in delivering promises and speech.
I stand by this and no prophecy can alter it except God alters it himself.
If LP didn't raise up to 50B to 100B to run its campaign, their chances would be affected. If Igbo men are rich, this is the time to proof it.

CHIKA IGWE ESQ.

Good luck to Obi abeg.
Obedience is better than sacrifice.

We are the structure

This analysis will make many to wail!

Twitter analysis. Write it down, Obi won't even win Anambra state. That's when you social media kids will understand that politics is not about trending on Twitter

Obi winning eRection in more than one state outside the IPOB dominated parts of the country is a joke taken too far

Pandev:
Twitter analysis. Write it down, Obi won't even win Anambra state. That's when you social media kids will understand that politics is not about trending on Twitter

don't mind them

Tinubu Urchins will commit suicide today after reading this analysis.

Peter Obi is the next president of Nigeria.

Tinubu urchins let the wailing begin in 3.......2........1........go!!!

chukwukadibia20:


,that is, if Tinubu looses Lagos in Presidency.
LP=first
APC=second
PDP= third
My own fair Judgement from my political studies for the past 18 years.
Please, APC, PDP and LP, don't look down on the following:
1) the power of the social media,
2) the power of the churches, so long as Christian states are concerned, the church is the highest grassroot mobilizer.
3) the power of the youths,nobody convince people more in any election than them
4) competence and capacity in delivering promises and speech.
I stand by this and no prophecy can alter it except God alters it himself.
If LP didn't raise up to 50B to 100B to run its campaign, their chances would be affected. If Igbo men are rich, this is the time to proof it.

CHIKA IGWE ESQ.

You tried for the long epistle but Obi/LP is not even in the race to begin with. People who understand politics have said that Obi will come a distant third.

Pandev:
Twitter analysis. Write it down, Obi won't even win Anambra state. That's when you social media kids will understand that politics is not about trending on Twitter

OP analysis will even shock him that after the election, he will go back to wailing.

Its only a fool that will say Peter obi will not win Anambra state and the whole of SE and SS.

You must be good in Naijabet. Dreamer. You better turn to the other side of your bed or wake from slumber.

Coly2012:
Its only a fool that will say Peter obi will not win Anambra state and the whole of SE and SS.

Peter Obi won't even win Anambra State and this is the fact. Unless people just want to deceive themselves!!!

chukwukadibia20:
Tinubu has a challenger in his backyard as Peter Obi who has certain factors against him, 1) same religion tickets as 70 percents christians would punish him for that and give Obi their votes. 2) campaign DG of Tinubu said the Yoruba CHRISTIANS are just 30%< if it is anything to go by, it means Yoruba Christians are minority and their votes are just too little. Yoruba muslems are fully behind Tinubu is life and death. 3) most Yoruba youths are not happy with him as they think he is old and sick and he has been a Lord in their land with some pocket of signs, this would work against him, at the end , what Obi needs in the entire South West is 25 to 30% votes as South West is a battle ground for him.

Coming to South East and South South, both Tinubu and Atiku can't get 20% votes in this areas and that is 11 states. In case you don't know, these states would vote massively because they think their own is contesting. Unless the politicians in those areas empowers youths to destroy polling centers, tb bumps and threaten these two zones not to come out and vote. But for South West,Atiku can't get up to ten percent votes, what this means is that Atiku is out of this game.

Coming to North Central, Obi has better chances in Abuja, Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi, Niger and Kwara. Obi would cross 25% votes in Kwara but may not defeat Tinubu in Kwara due to muslems votes, Imams in Kwara will tell them to vote Tinubu. In Niger, Obi would get up to 40 percent votes while tinubu and Atiku shares 60%. Reason is simple, large CHRISTIANS in Niger, large Igbo population or presence, campaign by churches, youths influence from Abuja. Both APC and PDP would apply tribes and religion to campaign against LP in North central to muslems. In Nassarawa, LP would take at least 50 to 60% votes due to same religion, Igbo, non Nassarawan populations in that state and youths influence. in Kogi, it would be 60% LP as those half christians populations in that state would go Labour while few Muslems there too are going Labour too. Tinubu and Atiku would share 40% there. So, North central is tough for both APC and PDP with these two parties not getting 25% in Benue, Plateau, Abuja, and Kogi. What happens in NC will determine the winner of the election. So, Obi is coming into the race with SE, SS on at least 90 percent, NC on at least 60 percent and SW on at least 30%.

For North East,LP would take TARRABA at 70 percent , Adamawa at 30 percent and Gombe at 50 percent. His chances in other 3 states would be below 25%. The three states I mentioned now have large and crazy Christian populations. Don't joke with that factor.

In North West, LP would take only Kaduna. Kaduna is in two parts, christian south and muslem North. The christians South would vote LP by 90% while Muslem North would bring in like ten percent due to Datti, Obi's VP, that would give Obi the chance to take Kaduna state. Obi may get up to 20 to 25% in Sokoto and Kano, up to or less than ten percent in Bauchi, and Borno.
Who are campaigning in this?
1) Imams, but their dilemma is that they have 3 muslems, and their entire muslem votes nationwide would be split.
2) pastors, for the first time, churches are turning their alters to campaign ground and almost all churches in SS and SE are fully locked for LP, churches in South West are 70 percent speaking to promote LP. Churches in NC are fully locked for LP and if christians population should come out and vote, then no body can defeat their candidate.
3) religion, it would be extremely difficult for a muslem to vote for LP though some muslems would vote LP, Yoruba muslems are fully behind Tinubu, almost 30% christians too. In North, choice of Shettima has weakened Atiku's clear chances but Atiku would win majority muslem votes in NC, NE and NW with Tinubu coming second and Kwankwaso third , that is, if Kwankwaso doesn't step down for Tinubu. Na, if muslem votes in Northern Nigeria is 100% 55% goes to Atiku, 35% goes to Tinubu and ten percent to others. For LP, they would sweep the entire christian votes by 90 percent while ten is left for others in both SE and SS. In South West, it would take 70% percent Christian votes while Tinubu gets almost 30% with Atiku less than 5%. In NC, LP would take 85% christian votes while 15% goes to Atiku and Tinubu. In North East, LP would take 90% christian votes in TARRABA, Gombe, Borno, Bauchi and NW , it would take 90% christian votes in Sokoto, Kano and Kaduna.
4) Tribe. It is much easier for someone in SS to vote a competent SE candidate than a competent NE or NW or SW candidates. Tribally, SE and SS would vote Obi by 90% and above. By tribe, NW and NE largely by its muslems would vote Atiku by 70% and vote Tinubu by 30% as someone who have helped North under Buhari. In SW, yorubas would vote at least 70% by tribe.only NC is neautral on this except Niger and Kwara.
5) Youths and Age. This factor would make it hard for Tinubu to coast home easily in SW. Age and youths factor would make him dangle with 60 to 70% instead of 90 to 95% LP would get in SE and SS. Age and youths would also work against Atiku in NC.
6) insecurity. Especially Atiku, insecurity would make it hard for NC and Christians in the North to trust him as they see him as Northern Fulani muslem.

Look at this. LP has SS, SE,NC, TARRABA,Gombe, bit Adamawa. Kaduna, bit Sokoto and Kano

APC has the entire SW by 70% , NC by less than or 25% NE and NW at 35 to 40%.
PDP has SW at less than 10% ,NC at 30%, NE and NW at 55%

Next year's election may not produce more than 40 million votes despite youths awakening. But 40M shows progress. How do I mean? New PVC is between ten to 12M, replacement and transfer is like 8 to ten Million votes, it you add all, it is like 20M, add 20 to 25M as obtained last election , you may have between 40 to 45M. Subtract riggings which card reader and manual voting through incidence forms brought and voter aparthy that may occur in some core Northern states, then you would have highest 40M voting.
Out of this 40M, SE would have the least votes of 4 to 4.6M, SS would have 6 to 6.5M, SW would have like 6to 7M, NC, 6 to 6.7M , North East 6 to 6.4M and NW 8 to 9M votes.
LP may go home with 15 to 19M votes, APC 12 to 13 M and PDP 7 to 8M votes.

See this shocker, APC and PDP may not get up to 25% in 24 states, let's starts from PDP, Atiku is seen as injustice to the entire Southern Nigeria and they would punish him for that , his party too has internal wrangles, PDP would loose SE, SS and SW, 17 states off already, meaning he would be left with 19 Northern States, he can't scale through in Benue, Plateau, TARRABA,Kaduna, Kogi, Kwara.

For APC, SE and SS is off. Meaning APC is left with 6 in SW. APC may get 25% in NW and NE making it 18 states, in North central they would likely get 25% in Nassarawa, Kogi and Kwara, may be, just may be Niger, making it 22 states and off by two states as Benue, Plateau, TARRABA, Gombe can't give it to APC.
LP would likely get 25% in all 17 Southern states and 6 in NC making it total of 22 states, then Kaduna, TARRABA, Gombe, Adamawa and may be, just may be, Sokoto, making it 26 to 27 states. Only Labour comfortably cross this line.

Dear Nigerians , I don't need a prophet or prophecy to know this. I am fully on ground and in the field. I know what is happening in many states.

I believe the election would be free and fair (due to BVAS machines, absence of manual voting through incidence forms and electronic transmission from polling units) and if it does, APC and PDP can't win this election.
I won't comment on LP national assembly candidates, too hard for me to call bur take it, as it stands, LP is far from winning here. Labour would surely win NASS especially in Abuja, win some state govs like Abia, Benue, plateau and some states like Lagos ,that is, if Tinubu looses Lagos in Presidency.
LP=first
APC=second
PDP= third
My own fair Judgement from my political studies for the past 18 years.
Please, APC, PDP and LP, don't look down on the following:
1) the power of the social media,
2) the power of the churches, so long as Christian states are concerned, the church is the highest grassroot mobilizer.
3) the power of the youths,nobody convince people more in any election than them
4) competence and capacity in delivering promises and speech.
I stand by this and no prophecy can alter it except God alters it himself.
If LP didn't raise up to 50B to 100B to run its campaign, their chances would be affected. If Igbo men are rich, this is the time to proof it.

CHIKA IGWE ESQ.

You don't have accident by driving with mouth. This your bear parlour political permutation is as real as sabinu's comedy.

I really appreciate your effort to express your mind as a subject of politics. I have witnessed more than 8 election as an umpire and I can confidently tell you that Obi best bet is a distant third.
Election in Nigeria is primary an secondary factor which I would elaborate as I go on. The primary factors are (1) Party structure (2) ethnicity and religion (3) mobilization Funds
Secondary factors are (1) social media campaign (2) performance in office

(1) Party structure: The Nigerian state has 36 state with the whole states having 774 local government. The party is funded at the state level by the governor of each state that's why most governor ended up being president or senator. The state governor are in charge of their state party because they fund the party through out the state. So for a party without no senator, no federal representative no governor how do they mobilize people for election. How does Obi want to consistently campaign in a remote local government 9n gomber when his party has no representative in that party he would need magic to deliver in those state which a re not his state of influence.

Religion and Ethnicity: When BAT picked Shettima I was one of those who criticized his choice of deputy but when I spoke to political scientist I was informed that what good would a Christian deputy garner for him. The south-South and South-East which are predominantly christian and locked down for Obi would not vote him so it would be politically suicidal for him to do that so his best choice is to pick a Muslim candidate from the core north and leverage his Yoruba ethic affiliation to attract christian in the south west.

(Continue later)

maasoap:


You tried for the long epistle but Obi/LP is not even in the race to begin with. People who understand politics have said that Obi will come a distant third.

As an Tinubu supporter I don't want you to give me wishful thinking. Present statistical data and analysis to prove your point.

Pandev:
Twitter analysis. Write it down, Obi won't even win Anambra state. That's when you social media kids will understand that politics is not about trending on Twitter

yes ur Right but he will be ur president come 2023 save the date

Bonesbreaker:
yes ur Right but he will be ur president come 2023 save the date

yes he will be the president of my dear Biafra

Good misfortune to politicians abeg

Pandev:
yes he will be the president of my dear Biafra

hope u will not die of Heart attack because its officially done deal obi is your president save this date someone here told you this

Bonesbreaker:
hope u will not die of Heart attack because its officially done deal obi is your president save this date someone here told you this

yes I have no doubt that Obi will be best president Biafra would ever produce.

By the way, get ready for the renewal of your wailing license. It'll be ready after 2023 elections.

Pandev:
yes he will be the president of my dear Biafra

And he will reign there till eternity

Elections are not won in social media... Yet they are paying people to come on social media to help them trend.

Go and read about the Arab Spring. When you're done, come back and tell me social media has no influence, you hear?

haffaze777:

And he will reign there till eternity

na so

Pandev:
na so

We support you in this vawulence,if you need comrade be rest assured that my clique got your back.

kay1one:
Elections are not won in social media... Yet they are paying people to come on social media to help them trend.

Go and read about the Arab Spring. When you're done, come back and tell me social media has no influence, you hear?

Mr kay1one, go and read about Kenya election. Their social media candidate came distant 3rd with less than 5% of the total votes. Don't sleep on a bicycle my kay1one.

Pandev:
yes I have no doubt that Obi will be best president Biafra would ever produce.

By the way, get ready for the renewal of your wailing license. It'll be ready after 2023 elections.

just have this in mind anyway any place you find yourself peter
Obi will surely win weather you like it or not obi na ur president come 2023 so you can masturbate up and down but have it in your mind thus shall it be

Bonesbreaker:
just have this in mind anyway any place you find yourself peter
Obi will surely win weather you like it or not obi na ur president come 2023 so you can masturbate up and down but have it in your mind thus shall it be

hey boy, I never argue that Obi will be our pioneer Biafran president. We're ready

Pandev:
Twitter analysis. Write it down, Obi won't even win Anambra state. That's when you social media kids will understand that politics is not about trending on Twitter

Even their lord and saviour Emeka Odumegwu Ojukwu lost Anambra state and even his local government to Obasanjo.