Pandev:
Twitter analysis. Write it down, Obi won't even win Anambra state. That's when you social media kids will understand that politics is not about trending on Twitter

Figment of the OP imagination. SE will rally round Obi because he’s their own but SW won’t rally round Tinubu and same with Atiku.

Clownish. Obis little votes will surprise you. After elections you will understand what structure means and what it means for a man who has paid his dues over time.

Softmirror:

etrouble:


Even their lord and saviour Emeka Odumegwu Ojukwu lost Anambra state and even his local government to Obasanjo.

etrouble:


Even their lord and saviour Emeka Odumegwu Ojukwu lost Anambra state and even his local government to Obasanjo.

E NO SURE FOR ATIKU SEF FOR ADAMAWA STATE


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Npm1RGdWbdY


CAMPAIGN SEF NEVER START O!

TESTING THE MICROPHONE IN JUST A LOCAL GOVERNMENT IN ADAMAWA STATE. MAYO BELWA LG TO BE PRECISE.

I support Peter Obi and want him to win but the truth is that it will take a miracle for him to win notwithstanding the support of the youths.
Nigeria is a third world nation where elections are not won on merit. That is the reason why Buhari won his re- election in 2019 after 4 years of poor leadership.
Party Structure is the primary factor that wins election in Nigeria. Most Nigerians live in villages and vote according to the dictate of their political leaders.
Religion and ethnicity are two other factors. This is the reason PDP went against her zoning principle in a bid to get massive votes in the north. APC then went for a muslim- Muslim ticket to counter the move of PDP.
Had Nigeria been a develop nation like America, Obi will win the election with a landslide. Unfortunately, the youths still have a mountain to climb before APC and PDP can be defeated.

You people are making baseless analysis, my state bayelsa might give its vote to pdp, because of structure, alot of persons care about interest, I for one will vote for labor party, writing episodes online doesn't win an election, statement like atiku and tinibu will not see votes in south south wouldn't work the way you analyse it, you people should do well do more campaigns, take it to the Rurals, Peter obi has a lot of work to do, you people should stop coming online and be doing baseless analysis, elections are never won on social media's, some persons don't even know Peter obi sef, go back to the drawing board and work, stop writing

Pandev:
Mr kay1one, go and read about Kenya election. Their social media candidate came distant 3rd with less than 5% of the total votes. Don't sleep on a bicycle my kay1one.

you're a bloody liar.... tufiakwa
open mouth waaa and lie without much difficulty

Atiku has always been second son of the north, after Buhari and Buhari knows no Fulani/Hausa man would leave his own under any party to vote for a Yoruba or an igbo man that's why he is distancing himself from Tinubu and saying he won't support any candidate.

Atiku is not stressing himself bout wike or anyone because he knows even with more APC governors in the north he's getting more than 80% and maybe 40% in the south with would see him cruise to Victory.

Remember Atiku lost to the great Buhari in an election as the incumbent with only 3mill votes. Tinubu and Obi na beans

Antivirus92:
you're a bloody liar.... tufiakwa
open mouth waaa and lie without much difficulty

prove me wrong. You must have read anambra1stson1 fake news claiming that the social media candidate won . Omo you people just swallow everything hook line and sinker.

Even nobody is talking about NNPN kwankwaso, the man that will help us divide Nothern Votes.



Congratulations to Peter Obi in advance..

....e go shock una

,funny many people would be surprised by 2023, people are free to make analysis and guesses as usual.

Pandev:
Twitter analysis. Write it down, Obi won't even win Anambra state. That's when you social media kids will understand that politics is not about trending on Twitter

how much do u want to bet, if obi doesn't win any other state, he will win anambra and should poll the highest in south east. If he sure for u let place a bet on this. Same way tinubu will win south west is the same way obi will win south east.

Lol small children sha.

kay1one:
Elections are not won in social media... Yet they are paying people to come on social media to help them trend.

Go and read about the Arab Spring. When you're done, come back and tell me social media has no influence, you hear?

You talking about Arab springs, do you Obidient mostly Igbo have the courage to come out and sacrifice your lives like the Arabs did? Or does Obi have support totally across Nigeria? The truth is your support base in highly concentrated in your South east therefore you can't influence other region.

Pandev:
Mr kay1one, go and read about Kenya election. Their social media candidate came distant 3rd with less than 5% of the total votes. Don't sleep on a bicycle my kay1one.

Obi is a social media candidate and yet 1 million man marches are going on around the country for a man who hasn't paid a penny to mobilise anyone!

Look, lemme pretend to be a Tinubu or Atiku supporter for a second: it would be absolutely STUPID for me to ignore the traction Obi has gained online and offline.

Be wise and see what's happening.

Naajjii:

You talking about Arab springs, do you Obidient mostly Igbo have the courage to come out and sacrifice your lives like the Arabs did? Or does Obi have support totally across Nigeria? The truth is your support base in highly concentrated in your South east therefore you can't influence other region.

That's something already cos as of 3 months ago it wasn't that way. FYI SS has joined the train. NC is joining too and SW is tending towards at least 40% already.

Forget about being anybody's supporter. If this was happening in Ghana, you'll warn the opposition to be careful

maasoap:


You tried for the long epistle but Obi/LP is not even in the race to begin with. People who understand politics have said that Obi will come a distant third.

imagine someone sitting down and writing that LP will win Taraba by 70% does he even know where Taraba is? Gombe 50%
LP will win kaduna Kaduna state ooo. I no fit laugh sef.
PDP will wipe Taraba with too much ease. APC will likely win Gombe. No opposition is getting anything more than 6% from Borno, the rest are even more laughable. If LP gets 500 votes in Katsina, kebbi, Sokoto and kano put together they too try sef

Jennifer663:
Good luck to Obi abeg.
Obedience is better than sacrifice.

are you a dog that wants to be obedient to your owner?

Spy360:

As an Tinubu supporter I don't want you to give me wishful thinking. Present statistical data and analysis to prove your point.

Tinubu will clear south west. In South South, he will easily wipe the entire Edo North (Oshiomole will even be on the ballot that day) Pdp will clear Edo central which is where I'm from, they will split Edo south depending on how much oyegun and the others corporate.
PDP will clear Delta North. APC will most likely win Delta Central (Omo Agege will win governorship election and the wave will affect presidential election) Rivers all depends on where Wike sway. APC won't win Rivers but the margin could reduce. Akwa Ibom win most likely follow Pdp. I don't know of Cross Rivers.
Apc will win North West. APC will win Niger, Kwara and Kogi. Nasarawa will most likely follow Pdp. APC chairman is not a serious person.
Apc will wipe Borno and Yobe and might win Gombe. Pdp will wipe Adamawa, Taraba and Bauchi they might win Gombe.

LP and NNPP are not even in the race

Pandev:
Mr kay1one, go and read about Kenya election. Their social media candidate came distant 3rd with less than 5% of the total votes. Don't sleep on a bicycle my kay1one.

. Which of them please?

Have you done your nkpurum mirin analysis? Okay. Your eyes will soon clear.

chukwukadibia20:
Tinubu has a challenger in his backyard as Peter Obi who has certain factors against him, 1) same religion tickets as 70 percents christians would punish him for that and give Obi their votes. 2) campaign DG of Tinubu said the Yoruba CHRISTIANS are just 30%< if it is anything to go by, it means Yoruba Christians are minority and their votes are just too little. Yoruba muslems are fully behind Tinubu is life and death. 3) most Yoruba youths are not happy with him as they think he is old and sick and he has been a Lord in their land with some pocket of signs, this would work against him, at the end , what Obi needs in the entire South West is 25 to 30% votes as South West is a battle ground for him.

Coming to South East and South South, both Tinubu and Atiku can't get 20% votes in this areas and that is 11 states. In case you don't know, these states would vote massively because they think their own is contesting. Unless the politicians in those areas empowers youths to destroy polling centers, tb bumps and threaten these two zones not to come out and vote. But for South West,Atiku can't get up to ten percent votes, what this means is that Atiku is out of this game.

Coming to North Central, Obi has better chances in Abuja, Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi, Niger and Kwara. Obi would cross 25% votes in Kwara but may not defeat Tinubu in Kwara due to muslems votes, Imams in Kwara will tell them to vote Tinubu. In Niger, Obi would get up to 40 percent votes while tinubu and Atiku shares 60%. Reason is simple, large CHRISTIANS in Niger, large Igbo population or presence, campaign by churches, youths influence from Abuja. Both APC and PDP would apply tribes and religion to campaign against LP in North central to muslems. In Nassarawa, LP would take at least 50 to 60% votes due to same religion, Igbo, non Nassarawan populations in that state and youths influence. in Kogi, it would be 60% LP as those half christians populations in that state would go Labour while few Muslems there too are going Labour too. Tinubu and Atiku would share 40% there. So, North central is tough for both APC and PDP with these two parties not getting 25% in Benue, Plateau, Abuja, and Kogi. What happens in NC will determine the winner of the election. So, Obi is coming into the race with SE, SS on at least 90 percent, NC on at least 60 percent and SW on at least 30%.

For North East,LP would take TARRABA at 70 percent , Adamawa at 30 percent and Gombe at 50 percent. His chances in other 3 states would be below 25%. The three states I mentioned now have large and crazy Christian populations. Don't joke with that factor.

In North West, LP would take only Kaduna. Kaduna is in two parts, christian south and muslem North. The christians South would vote LP by 90% while Muslem North would bring in like ten percent due to Datti, Obi's VP, that would give Obi the chance to take Kaduna state. Obi may get up to 20 to 25% in Sokoto and Kano, up to or less than ten percent in Bauchi, and Borno.
Who are campaigning in this?
1) Imams, but their dilemma is that they have 3 muslems, and their entire muslem votes nationwide would be split.
2) pastors, for the first time, churches are turning their alters to campaign ground and almost all churches in SS and SE are fully locked for LP, churches in South West are 70 percent speaking to promote LP. Churches in NC are fully locked for LP and if christians population should come out and vote, then no body can defeat their candidate.
3) religion, it would be extremely difficult for a muslem to vote for LP though some muslems would vote LP, Yoruba muslems are fully behind Tinubu, almost 30% christians too. In North, choice of Shettima has weakened Atiku's clear chances but Atiku would win majority muslem votes in NC, NE and NW with Tinubu coming second and Kwankwaso third , that is, if Kwankwaso doesn't step down for Tinubu. Na, if muslem votes in Northern Nigeria is 100% 55% goes to Atiku, 35% goes to Tinubu and ten percent to others. For LP, they would sweep the entire christian votes by 90 percent while ten is left for others in both SE and SS. In South West, it would take 70% percent Christian votes while Tinubu gets almost 30% with Atiku less than 5%. In NC, LP would take 85% christian votes while 15% goes to Atiku and Tinubu. In North East, LP would take 90% christian votes in TARRABA, Gombe, Borno, Bauchi and NW , it would take 90% christian votes in Sokoto, Kano and Kaduna.
4) Tribe. It is much easier for someone in SS to vote a competent SE candidate than a competent NE or NW or SW candidates. Tribally, SE and SS would vote Obi by 90% and above. By tribe, NW and NE largely by its muslems would vote Atiku by 70% and vote Tinubu by 30% as someone who have helped North under Buhari. In SW, yorubas would vote at least 70% by tribe.only NC is neautral on this except Niger and Kwara.
5) Youths and Age. This factor would make it hard for Tinubu to coast home easily in SW. Age and youths factor would make him dangle with 60 to 70% instead of 90 to 95% LP would get in SE and SS. Age and youths would also work against Atiku in NC.
6) insecurity. Especially Atiku, insecurity would make it hard for NC and Christians in the North to trust him as they see him as Northern Fulani muslem.

Look at this. LP has SS, SE,NC, TARRABA,Gombe, bit Adamawa. Kaduna, bit Sokoto and Kano

APC has the entire SW by 70% , NC by less than or 25% NE and NW at 35 to 40%.
PDP has SW at less than 10% ,NC at 30%, NE and NW at 55%

Next year's election may not produce more than 40 million votes despite youths awakening. But 40M shows progress. How do I mean? New PVC is between ten to 12M, replacement and transfer is like 8 to ten Million votes, it you add all, it is like 20M, add 20 to 25M as obtained last election , you may have between 40 to 45M. Subtract riggings which card reader and manual voting through incidence forms brought and voter aparthy that may occur in some core Northern states, then you would have highest 40M voting.
Out of this 40M, SE would have the least votes of 4 to 4.6M, SS would have 6 to 6.5M, SW would have like 6to 7M, NC, 6 to 6.7M , North East 6 to 6.4M and NW 8 to 9M votes.
LP may go home with 15 to 19M votes, APC 12 to 13 M and PDP 7 to 8M votes.

See this shocker, APC and PDP may not get up to 25% in 24 states, let's starts from PDP, Atiku is seen as injustice to the entire Southern Nigeria and they would punish him for that , his party too has internal wrangles, PDP would loose SE, SS and SW, 17 states off already, meaning he would be left with 19 Northern States, he can't scale through in Benue, Plateau, TARRABA,Kaduna, Kogi, Kwara.

For APC, SE and SS is off. Meaning APC is left with 6 in SW. APC may get 25% in NW and NE making it 18 states, in North central they would likely get 25% in Nassarawa, Kogi and Kwara, may be, just may be Niger, making it 22 states and off by two states as Benue, Plateau, TARRABA, Gombe can't give it to APC.
LP would likely get 25% in all 17 Southern states and 6 in NC making it total of 22 states, then Kaduna, TARRABA, Gombe, Adamawa and may be, just may be, Sokoto, making it 26 to 27 states. Only Labour comfortably cross this line.

Dear Nigerians , I don't need a prophet or prophecy to know this. I am fully on ground and in the field. I know what is happening in many states.

I believe the election would be free and fair (due to BVAS machines, absence of manual voting through incidence forms and electronic transmission from polling units) and if it does, APC and PDP can't win this election.
I won't comment on LP national assembly candidates, too hard for me to call bur take it, as it stands, LP is far from winning here. Labour would surely win NASS especially in Abuja, win some state govs like Abia, Benue, plateau and some states like Lagos ,that is, if Tinubu looses Lagos in Presidency.
LP=first
APC=second
PDP= third
My own fair Judgement from my political studies for the past 18 years.
Please, APC, PDP and LP, don't look down on the following:
1) the power of the social media,
2) the power of the churches, so long as Christian states are concerned, the church is the highest grassroot mobilizer.
3) the power of the youths,nobody convince people more in any election than them
4) competence and capacity in delivering promises and speech.
I stand by this and no prophecy can alter it except God alters it himself.
If LP didn't raise up to 50B to 100B to run its campaign, their chances would be affected. If Igbo men are rich, this is the time to proof it.

CHIKA IGWE ESQ.

Very objective and close to accurate.

Pandev:
prove me wrong. You must have read anambra1stson1 fake news claiming that the social media candidate won . Omo you people just swallow everything hook line and sinker.

. Omokri was just lying to himself, though I know those characters, it was the president elect Rano that they were calling social media president, it was now that he won the election that omokri is now taking rubbish

Mumu sitdown for houe dey analyse akpu and yam,una eye go clear next year February,e nor Tay again.

LOL! I was just laughing as I was reading the really childish and wishful thinking analysis by the OP!

Some folks are really in for a big shocker,as it is obvious the OP really believes the analysis he just put forward.

His entire analysis is based on religious sentiments! Christians this, Christians that! Very shallow. He did not remember that Goodluck Jonathan a Christian, defeated Atiku(a Muslim) in the North!

In fact,it's not worth breaking down his analysis and picking holes in them,he has really built a castle in the air.He is in for a big shock!

For instance,he believes Yorubas will put religion above our Yourubaness! OP,you don't know much about us,you will find out soon when Tinubu picks 95% of votes of Yoruba people. By the time the Northern votes come in and the OP sees results for LP like that of Ekiti and Osun elections, he'll have an heart attack!

Keep dreaming,Bro!

We will quote posts like mine when the election is done. Haha! The OP believes Obi will get more votes nationally than Atiku!

Really,if wishes were horses,beggers will ride!

maasoap:


You tried for the long epistle but Obi/LP is not even in the race to begin with. People who understand politics have said that Obi will come a distant third.

Thank God you admitted SE and SS is locked down for Obi. That shows you know what the true stricture is,the people are the structure. Once the people are willing to come out and stage those grassroot campaigns for him,he is good to go. Don't forget the influence of our churches and pastors and bishops who are telling their members daily to vote a christian in Peter Obi. Your analysis works under card reader and old electoral law in 2019 not in 2022 or 2023. Obi had financiers and money can't be his problem so long as it would.he money to run the campaign not to buy votes or conscience. He has people daily forming grassroot and you may know, he had gotten 179000 agent volunteers in all states put together since last month as I was following his obedience. Daily the structures keep forming. Being a Christian placed him ahead of Al other candidates too,

walexbiz:
I really appreciate your effort to express your mind as a subject of politics. I have witnessed more than 8 election as an umpire and I can confidently tell you that Obi best bet is a distant third.
Election in Nigeria is primary an secondary factor which I would elaborate as I go on. The primary factors are (1) Party structure (2) ethnicity and religion (3) mobilization Funds
Secondary factors are (1) social media campaign (2) performance in office

(1) Party structure: The Nigerian state has 36 state with the whole states having 774 local government. The party is funded at the state level by the governor of each state that's why most governor ended up being president or senator. The state governor are in charge of their state party because they fund the party through out the state. So for a party without no senator, no federal representative no governor how do they mobilize people for election. How does Obi want to consistently campaign in a remote local government 9n gomber when his party has no representative in that party he would need magic to deliver in those state which a re not his state of influence.

Religion and Ethnicity: When BAT picked Shettima I was one of those who criticized his choice of deputy but when I spoke to political scientist I was informed that what good would a Christian deputy garner for him. The south-South and South-East which are predominantly christian and locked down for Obi would not vote him so it would be politically suicidal for him to do that so his best choice is to pick a Muslim candidate from the core north and leverage his Yoruba ethic affiliation to attract christian in the south west.

(Continue later)

Well done Sir.They need to listen to folks like you! But they won't! They are "wishing" Obi to be president forgetting he'll need to be elected!

Lyonkingpin:
You people are making baseless analysis, my state bayelsa might give its vote to pdp, because of structure, alot of persons care about interest, I for one will vote for labor party, writing episodes online doesn't win an election, statement like atiku and tinibu will not see votes in south south wouldn't work the way you analyse it, you people should do well do more campaigns, take it to the Rurals, Peter obi has a lot of work to do, you people should stop coming online and be doing baseless analysis, elections are never won on social media's, some persons don't even know Peter obi sef, go back to the drawing board and work, stop writing

This is not true Sir, the social media president in Kenya was Ruto Williams, I have countless proof to this. If you think otherwise, pls show us proof.

Pandev:
Mr kay1one, go and read about Kenya election. Their social media candidate came distant 3rd with less than 5% of the total votes. Don't sleep on a bicycle my kay1one.

Indeed, you proved me right again, Yorubas vote sentimentally , like they would rather vote a dead Yoruba man than vote a living Igbo man. No doubt about that, but we have seen the new crop of yorubas saying no especially as they have mixed race in them being intermarriage, their level of tolerance and non yorubas influence among them. Their young enlightened ones are also saying no same as their religious ones in Christendom. Give me reason why a Yoruba man would vote Obi when Osibanjo is on the ballot then you would realize that Tinubu has factors against him.
Come with facts and figures not insult

Ylink4sure:
LOL! I was just laughing as I was reading the really childish and wishful thinking analysis by the OP!

Some folks are really in for a big shocker,as it is obvious the OP really believes the analysis he just put forward.

His entire analysis is based on religious sentiments! Christians this, Christians that! Very shallow. He did not remember that Goodluck Jonathan a Christian, defeated Atiku(a Muslim) in the North!

In fact,it's not worth breaking down his analysis and picking holes in them,he has really built a castle in the air.He is in for a big shock!

For instance,he believes Yorubas will put religion above our Yourubaness! OP,you don't know much about us,you will find out soon when Tinubu picks 95% of votes of Yoruba people. By the time the Northern votes come in and the OP sees results for LP like that of Ekiti and Osun elections, he'll have an heart attack!

Keep dreaming,Bro!

We will quote posts like mine when the election is done. Haha! The OP believes Obi will get more votes nationally than Atiku!

Really,if wishes were horses,beggers will ride!

I didn't know there are this many folks who actually know the true picture and reality of what it is going to be like in the 'field'. The Politically naive Obedient folks have choked the media space

Spirit04:
Tinubu will clear south west. South South, he will easily wipe the entire Edo North (Oshiomole will even be on the ballot that day) Pdp will clear Edo central which is where I'm from, they will split Edo south depending on how much oyegun and the others corporate.
PDP will clear Delta North. APC will most likely win Delta Central (Omo Agege will win governorship election and the wave will affect presidential election) Rivers all depends on where Wike sway. APC won't win Rivers but the margin could reduce. Akwa Ibom win most likely follow Pdp. I don't know of Cross Rivers.
Apc will win North West. APC will win Niger, Kwara and Kogi. Nasarawa will most likely follow Pdp. APC chairman is not a serious person.
Apc will wipe Borno and Yobe and might win Gombe. Pdp will wipe Adamawa, Taraba and Bauchi they might win Gombe.

LP and NNPP are not even in the race

Sir, your problem is not the Yorubas! It is the lack of political strategic planning on the part of the Igbos. For 22 years you gave your presidential votes to any PDP candidate eg Atiku contested under ACN you did not vote for him but when he voted under PDP,you voted emasse because all you cared about is PDP!

The question is what was in it for you guys? You failed to set parameters and define ahead how it was going to be for your benefit! You failed to be strategic but gave PDP a blank cheque,they didn't find not even Peter Obi worthy of presidency,he left when this became apparent.All your years with PDP was wasted.

The question now is, having decamped to LP just a few months ago,what strategic alliances, structure etc will win him the election when for 22 years all that structure was for the PDP!

You guys now think his Christianity will make him the president! LP lacks structure,by structure (as it's obvious many of you do not know the meaning) we mean elected public office holders who spend time and resources at the grassroots level.There are 774 LG areas in Nigeria and each further divided into wards.LP in its existence has never existed that deep enough.There are folks all over Nigeria who do not know LP logo!
And for many people in this category, unlucky for Peter Obi,the internet will not help! It cannot bridge this gap.

So,how can you achieve what you failed to actualise in 22 years in just a few weeks! Tinubu is reaping the rewards of his strategic alliances built over 30 years! Same as Atiku!

chukwukadibia20:
Indeed, you proved me right again, Yorubas vote sentimentally , like they would rather vote a dead Yoruba man than vote a living Igbo man. No doubt about that, but we have seen the new crop of yorubas saying no especially as they have mixed race in them being intermarriage, their level of tolerance and non yorubas influence among them. Their young enlightened ones are also saying no same as their religious ones in Christendom. Give me reason why a Yoruba man would vote Obi when Osibanjo is on the ballot then you would realize that Tinubu has factors against him.
Come with facts and figures not insult