A Poll Just Like The Town Hall Different From Balabu Bulabu

HardMirror:
what percentage do you give him in the north?

20% to 50%

if Kwankwaso had thrown away his oversized ego & merged with Obi, balablu bla bulaba would had voluntarily dropped out of d race by himself since.

Election would have Jez bn Obi/Kwankwaso vs Atiku/Okowa

MichaelSokoto:

20% to 50%

if Kwankwaso had thrown away his oversized ego & merged with Obi, balablu bla bulaba would had voluntarily dropped out of d race by himself since.

Election would have Jez bn Obi/Kwankwaso vs Atiku/Okowa

you are a comedian. Obi get 50% in the north? 😓😃😃😂😂😂

Osibajo2023:
Fool, Atiku has party structure to contend with in the Northwest, APC is more influential in the North

Any statement that starts with insults is a useless statement

1Dray:


Stop posting rubbish prediction, the election is less than a week. What do you seem to achieve with this senseless predictions? Let's meet at the polling booth to decide it.

Please come to my house and stop me.

What will you do if I don't stop? Absolutely nothing.

My gain is the entertaining reactions of people who comment on the thread.

Do you often engage in rubbish? Because you said that this thread is rubbish, but here you are commenting on it. That means that you are engaging in rubbish.

So you should take your own advice and try not to engage in rubbish in future.

Saturday is very close by..... a winner will definitely emerge, the contest is between Atiku and Asiwaju period!

HardMirror:
you are objective. But you missed one thing Apc cannot beat pdp in NW and NC. It csnt happen in this election

It will happen. APC will win NW narrowly and NC clearly.

Yoruba are playing tribal politics against Obi, but same Yoruba expect the north to abandon Atiku and Kwankwaso and vote massively for Tinubu.

Yabaleft candidates full this agbado camp

Useless analysis by agbado Tinubu supporter.

Period007:


How will Tinubu win Atiku In the west and still win Atiku in the North.

You guys thinks northerners are morons?

Actually that is wat most analysis is based on. That northerners can't think for themselves but southerners can think for themselves. That northerners are mumu and cows that governors will say everyone we are going here and no one will disobey but in the south a sitting gov can't tell people this is where we are going. That is why u see southerners analysing how north will vote and sharing northerner vote based on their emotions but have u ever seen any northerner analysing and sharing southern votes. Southerners are funny people

wonder233:
Okay, from your poll, nothing much will change for APC overall, despite the fact that Buhari won't be on the ballot and APC are infighting? But you took the the infighting of PDP into consideration?
And to show you're just a clown, you split southsouth votes for APC and PDP? Southsouth that is even more obidient than southeast? Then you have Benue to APC for presidential? People that have been killed for 8yrs by APC, you think they are so daft they don't know the difference between governorship and presidential?
You have southeast 72% for Labour. Something that is in the region of 95%?
Meanwhile for you, nothing will change for APC in the southwest, even though Lagos, where the bulk of southwest votes are is being split almost to the middle by Obi with APC?
Abeg, take down this embarrassment of a prediction, you're just another urchin.

You are so right.

Me I see Tinubu winning all the 38 states plus Abuja.


I also see Atiku winning all the 37 states and Abuja.



But I see Peter Obi winning 16 states and getting 25% of total votes cast in 27 states, this I have seen

Your analysis is correct to ur own tribal reasoning
Let be clear

Election is by contentt of the container not by tribe region or otherwise myopic view of urs...
I cannot speak for some states but give it to LP

Lagos 35% LP
Oyo LP
IMO LP
Taraba LP 45%
Anambra LP
Enugu LP
Delta LP
Edo LP
Rivers LP
Cross River LP
Abia LP
Abuja LP
Ebonyi LP
Kaduna 18% LP
Benue LP 55%



It's not abt who is in Power but the candidate...

nedu666:
All these polls and assumptions are a waste of time. U assume that in the south a sitting gov can't tell people who to vote but u assume in the north, the people are cows who move in the direction of the governors.

Actually, northerners are cows.

Some of the biggest election determiners are
1. Religion
2. Ethnicity
3. Literacy
4. Money
5. Structure
6. Powerful people
7. Traditional rulers
8. International community
9. Local media/online media

Analysis.

1. Religion - Of the four leading aspirant, only 1 is a Christian... Meaning if we have a rough estimate of 120m Muslims, and 100m christians, the Muslim votes will be divided sparingly between the 3 Muslims with Peter obi getting the least Muslim votes.... Then Obi most likely with get a bulk vote from the christians with the other 3 sharing the very little remaining in this order...
Muslim votes --Bat- 37% Atiku 37% kwankwaso 28% Obi 10% others 8%
Christian votes--Obi 70% Atiku 10% Bat 10% Kwankwaso 8% others 2%.....

2. Ethnicity - Obi will most likely clear the south east and south south votes, getting sparing votes from south west, and other northern states. Bat will get bulk votes from the south west and sparing votes from other regions, it would be very difficult for Bat to beat Atiku up north considering Buhari lackluster body language. Atiku will lead slightly up north with either Tinubu or Kwankwaso coming closely behind then get small cluster votes in the west and east Kwankwaso will only spoil the vote up north with almost nothing to show for in the west or east...

3. Literacy - Most learnerned people who can decide for themselves... I mean educated people are strongly behind Obi but there are some learnerned people behind Bat and Atiku, those behind Kwankwaso looks too small to bath and eye lid...
The illitrate are many and who can't decide for themselves are many and that's where Tinubu is targeting to get a bulk vote, Kwankwaso is banking and hoping he automatically gets Buhari 11 million cult block illiterate votes. Atiku is working to get some good votes from both sides... Obi only has the literate votes but the illitrate votes aren't counting for him except something spectacular happens...

4. Money - On this table, Bat and his team has shown they have the financial war chest to match and beat Atiku, they have done this by the high number of people mobilize to their campaigns across the country... Atiku comes second in this aspect, Obi comes third, but Obi mobilization looks like it's organic and not money induced. Kwankwaso mobilization across the country comes a distance 4th with others not seen

5. Structure - Structure in this case means number of elected officials such as presidents, governor's, senators, HORs, HOAs, chairmen's, councilors, appointees such as ministers, commissioners, DGs, Directors etc...
On this table, APC and Bat comes way way ahead, Atiku follows closely behind, then Obi and kwankwaso has little or nothing on this table, however, Obi is working hard to redefine what structure means but telling the world structure is the actual people...

6. Powerful people - this are people who have held powerful offices in the past or those with the means powerful is powerful, The powerful people haven't made any clear choice and the likes of OBJ is rooting for Obi, IBB, Abdulsalam and co has remain mutes working behind the scene... We have the likes of Gowan, Ty danjuma goodluck Jonathan and a host of others... The likes of Arthur Eze, Edwin Clark, has made thier choice.

7. Traditional leaders - while some traditional rulers are cashing out on the current financial show of power, some top traditional rulers that matters has not endorsed anyone, subtly welcoming all visitors and wishing them well...this includes the likes of Sultan of sokoto, Oba of Benin, Emir of Kano and a host of others... The Ooni of Ife stooped so low as to leave his palace to come receive Bat in Ibadan, it shows he has made his choice... We have small small traditional rulers making money up and down...
8. International community - the international community has being pushing Obi as the top candidate, this is evident in the way BBC, CNN, Aljezeera and a host of other international TV stations has being subtly promoting Obi... Tinubu and Atiku has serious /minor problems with the international community... Kwankwaso is hiding on this table...

9. Local media/Online - On this table, Obi seems to have taken over the Online media space and this isn't unconnected with the educated elites who are mostly on this space... The local media such as Tv stations have since taken sides with TVC attacking Obi and Atiku at every given opportunity while promoting Bat, Arise TV and rufia have never hidden thier distain for Bat by lashing him and the APC at every opportunity while subtly promoting Obi... Atiku has just being in the Mix with no major local media house rooting for him except the news and paid advert. Kwankwaso is lost on this table...

HardMirror:
says who? Hahaha. Dreamers. In your dream they would vote obi right? Lol. Obi cant get 10% in the entire north. Go and write it down.

Northerners won't vote Tinubu either. just rest.

GuyWise101:
Nna mehnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

One yororba fool will just sit in his grandparents old building and will be typing thrash on social media.

The fool said PDP 20% in Abia State?

FYI Peter Obi is winning Abia 90%

Read very well, he didn't mention Abia state, infact he did mention any state, he only mentioned regions

All these poll are not painting the real picture. Using percentage would give a false reality.

Most of these poll are not considering voters turnout. The voter turnout ( people that would vote on election day ) for this election is projected to be 45% of the total voters population ( people that have voters card ).

Voters turnout in southeast is projected to be 25-30% of the total eligible voters population of ~10 millions ( check previous voters turnout for understanding)

The total votes from SE will not exceed 3 millions votes.

SW and NC. PO will actually get more combined voted in these two region than his base of SE. PO highest votes would come from SS though he won't win the region.

The battle ground is the core north.

I'm from Kwara and I can tell you that PO will not get 20,000 votes in kwara.

The two biggest voting bloc in Kwara; Kwara central would be split between PDP ( 51% ) and APC ( 49.9% ) ; Kwara South ( APC 70% and PDP 29.9% ) ; Kwara north voting pattern is mostly dependent on the strongest party in Pategi, which is a strong PDP strong hold after Ilorin, PDP will win Kwara north with same margin as Kwara central.

Overall in kwara : APC 700,000 , PDP 500,000 with a total voters turnout of 1.2million




This election is between TINUBU and ATIKU


God bless Nigeria

naptu2:
The Classic Man @tkb417



https://twitter.com/tkb417/status/1626093778162397184

I'm not sure why anyone could do a potential voting analysis while ignoring the most important and profound trend in the political space.
This silly idea that governors magically control the voters of their states has got to go. It is ignorant.

Number 1, the incumbency factor, while it tends to favor a candidate for re-election, tend to work against the ruling party when a now popular incumbent is not standing for re-election.

Number 2, APC is the most unpopular political party in Nigeria at the moment, simply due to 8yrs of misrule, confusion and the agony it brought on the Nigerian people.

Thirdly, the candidate of the APC is the most unpopular and disliked presidential candidate in the history of Nigeria.
With 2 strong candidates to checkmate him in the North, 1 strong candidate to blow him off in the SE and SS, and 2 strong candidates to water down his influence in the SW, I am not sure why anyone thinks Tinubu stands a chance to score the percentage of votes allocated to him in this analysis.

And last and most importantly, the analysis tactfully ignored the current earthquake rumbling in the political space. The youths , majority of Nigerians, are clamoring for something different, a different way to govern, and a different set of personality traits that neither the APC nor the PDP is currently offering the voters.
The Peter Obi, phenomenon, if translated into actual votes on February 25th, will surely scatter all previous political maps in Nigeria.

No chance for a Tinubu victory in a fair and free election.

Atiku 's chances are only hinged on the hope of huge block votes of the tribal North, on the assumption that North will go full Tribal on February 25th.
In my opinion, the real contest is between Atiku and Obi.
I suspect that Kwakwanso might pull a trick before February 25th to align with Atiku.

Closer to reality

temitope27:
I think I agree, but u see SW, PDP can't av 29%

TINUBU- 70%
Atiku-15%
Obi-15%

Atiku will win Oyo and Osun.
They are PDP controlled states.

PDP will have a combined vote that's less than 4million in the SW... PDP won't win any SW states the old Action Group members are behind TINUBU in SW

SenatePresdo:
Atiku will win Oyo and Osun.
They are PDP controlled states.

Doyou2019:


Northerners won't vote Tinubu either. just rest.

i am supporting atiku not tinubu. Why are you people so daft. You think everyone is a tinubu supporter. Oponu. Better join me and support atiku if you truly hate tinubu that much. If you like carry you vote and waste it. If tinubu wins you have yourself to blame.

Workch:
Anybody who thinks that Tinubu will get more votes than Atiku in NW is sick

But if the FRAUDULENT ANAP write that IPOB CANDIDATE PETER OBI will win in the NW, it will not be rubbish, right?

You people need serious help!!!

HardMirror:
i am supporting atiku not tinubu. Why are you people so daft. You think everyone is a tinubu supporter. Oponu. Better join me and support atiku if you truly hate tinubu that much. If you like carry you vote and waste it. If tinubu wins you have yourself to blame.

See rantings like a fool's.
Compound mumu feeling funky.

Hopium:


Here's mine

lmao. opium for a reason.

princejohnard:
PDP will have a combined vote that's less than 4million in the SW... PDP won't win any SW states the old Action Group members are behind TINUBU in SW

Why won't PDP win their state?

Wait wait wait.. Will Tinubu win Kano state or any core northern APC state?

ChristineC:
lmao. opium for a reason.

You self see say e make sense

HardMirror:
you are a comedian. Obi get 50% in the north? 😓😃😃😂😂😂

20% to 50% Oga!

take dat one to d nearest Hell-Rufai Merchant bank 4 quick cashout!

Hopium:


Here's mine

Edo state swing state?

CORNfused verdict!

Hopium:


Here's mine

😂 You sure are on opium. APC win Cross River State?
It's 6 days to elections, don't worry yourself again with permutations. Just ensure you vote and discourage vote buying.
Let the electorates vote credible candidates without inducement of any kind(especially financial).